7 research outputs found
Threat of wheat blast to South Asia's food security: An ex-ante analysis.
New biotic stresses have emerged around the globe over the last decades threatening food safety and security. In 2016, scientists confirmed the presence of the devastating wheat-blast disease in Bangladesh, South Asia-its first occurrence outside South America. Severely blast-affected wheat fields had their grain yield wiped out. This poses a severe threat to food security in a densely-populated region with millions of poor inhabitants where wheat is a major staple crop and per capita wheat consumption has been increasing. As an ex ante impact assessment, this study examined potential wheat-blast scenarios in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Based on the agro-climatic conditions in the epicenter, where the disease was first identified in Bangladesh in 2016, this study identified the correspondingly vulnerable areas in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh amounting to 7 million ha. Assuming a conservative scenario of 5-10% for blast-induced wheat production loss, this study estimated the annual potential wheat loss across the sampled countries to be 0.89-1.77 million tons, equivalent to USD 132-264 million. Such losses further threaten an already-precarious national food security, putting pressure on wheat imports and wheat prices. The study is a call for action to tackle the real wheat-blast threat in South Asia
Wheat consumption trends (kg/capita/year) in selected countries in South Asia.
<p>Source: own calculations based on FAOSTAT [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0197555#pone.0197555.ref005" target="_blank">5</a>].</p
Original districts with wheat-blast in 2016 and new districts with wheat-blast like symptoms in 2017 wheat season in Bangladesh and eastern India.
<p>Source: Bangladesh 2016 [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0197555#pone.0197555.ref009" target="_blank">9</a>]; 2017 (authors’ observations); India [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0197555#pone.0197555.ref014" target="_blank">14</a>, <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0197555#pone.0197555.ref015" target="_blank">15</a>].</p
Wheat-blast vulnerability indicators in Bangladesh, Pakistan and India.
<p>Wheat-blast vulnerability indicators in Bangladesh, Pakistan and India.</p
Wheat-blast symptoms in Jhenaidah district, Bangladesh in February 2017.
<p><b>Panel A: Infected spikes; Panel B: Infected field.</b> Courtesy: Moksedul A. Arafat, Technical Officer, Jessore Hub, CIMMYT, Bangladesh, 2017.</p