Credit Risk and Bank Lending in the Czech Republic

This project undertakes an empirical analysis in credit risk modeling using a data sample representative of bank lending to the Czech corporate sector. A rating system is constructed using a proprietary database (Creditreform) that provides a solvency index for a large number of Czech firms. Several methods for the calibration and validation of a rating system are described and tested in practice. On the basis of a representative portfolio for Czech industries, systemic predictions of regulatory and economic capital are obtained and compared. The methodologies formulated by the latest Consultative Document of the NBCA (April 2003) and by the Credit Metrics and CreditRisk+ models are applied. The main contributions of this project can be briefly summarized as follows, (a) it shows in an applied manner that input data problems in credit risk modeling can be overcome, (b) it sheds light on regulatory issues that are gaining increasing relevance, and (c) it outlines the most important features of two credit risk models.Credit Risk, Economic Capital, Exchange Rate Exposure, Rating System.

Credit Risk, Systemic Uncertainties and Economic Capital Requirements for an Artificial Bank Loan Portfolio

This paper analyses the impact of different credit risk-based capital requirement implementations on banks' need for capital. The capital requirements for an artificially constructed risky loan portfolio are calculated by applying the BIS approach, the two widespread commercial risk-measurement models, CreditMetrics and CreditRisk+, and, finally, an original synthetic model similar to KMV. In the first three cases we closely follow the methodologies proposed by the regulatory or credit risk models. Economic capital requirements for the latter are obtained by means of Monte Carlo simulations. In the context of CreditMetrics, we additionally perform a Monte Carlo-based stress testing of the monetary policy changes reflected in the term structure of interest rates. Our model of KMV type combines the elements of the structural and the reduced-form methods of risky debt pricing, and the possibilities of its numerical solution are outlined.credit risk, economic capital, market risk, New Basel Capital Accord, systemic uncertainty.

Essays on Lobbying and Some of its Policy Implications for the EU Enlargement Process

This thesis examines how interest groups affect the policy-making process, and stresses the potential distortions induced by government policies that are responsive to lobbying. The papers reflect on some classical standpoints in economic literature and expand on them from a political economy perspective. The thesis starts with an investigation of the role of interest groups in the international arena and proceeds by analyzing lobbying at the national level. It is shown that the role of certain policies may be overstated if the influence of special interests on politics is overlooked.Available from STL Prague, CZ / NTK - National Technical LibrarySIGLECZCzech Republi