Diffusion of electric vehicles and their flexibility potential for smoothing residual demand: A spatio-temporal analysis for Germany

The transformation of the energy system causes increasing stress on distribution grid components. However, ´rexible EV charging, if incentivized adequately, can help mitigate this impact by reducing peaks in loads and feed-in. A comprehensive regional analysis is necessary to understand the potential of EV charging ´rexibility for reducing peaks on regional and national levels. To this end, we estimate regional residual demand time series for Germany for the years 2019, 2030 and 2045. We focus on modelling private EV diffusion via sigmoid functions and deriving driving and charging proîoles based on micro mobility data. Further, we distinguish two deployment schemes for EV ´rexibility: (1) all EVs contribute to ´rattening the national residual load curve; (2) local EVs contribute to ´rattening regional residual load curves. We îond that the residual load curves change structurally as positive and negative peaks in residual demand increase over the years on the regional and national levels. Although the absolute ´rexibility potential of EV home charging increases with the number of vehicles, its marginal utility to reduce load peaks declines. Especially in load-dominated regions, the national deployment of ´rexibility can result in higher regional demand peaks compared to a scenario without charging ´rexibility. The two approaches of ´rexibility activation can be contradictory in their effects: While regional incentivization is less efficient in reaching the smoothing in the national residual demand curve, national incentivization can even lead to increased strain on the local level

Electrification seeds-A fiexible approach for decentralized electricity supply in developing countries

There are currently more than 500 million people without access to electricity on the African continent alone. With an expected strong population growth and the global goals for reducing carbon emissions, the challenge of providing electricity for all is tremendous. We present an approach that tackles electrification bottom-up in a decentral approach from so-called electrification seeds: Business owners or public institutions that invest in an electricity system to ensure reliable electricity supply for themselves may serve as a seed by also selling elec-tricity in their surroundings via mini-or microgrids. This approach will allow for cheaper solutions due to economies of scale. While private households can also be addressed by simple solutions e.g. solar home systems, the power of the electrification seed approach is that it can also provide enough secure power for small and medium enterprises (SME) and thus drive economic development. It is important to address the individual environment of the respective electrification seed, since there is no standard solution. To do so, the method includes an entire toolchain from estimating demands and structures with satellite data and Geographic Information System (GIS) software over employing an energy system model for finding the optimal technological design. As a last step, the viability of the electrification seed concept is verified with an exemplary business plan. The results show positive business cases for the electrification seed and a reduction of electricity costs for end-customers by 11.3 %. Altogether, this gives a very optimistic outlook of the suggested approach to support the great challenge of sustainable electrification for economic growth in developing countries. (c) 2021 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved