Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.

Quantifying rates governing the clearance of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) and its progression to clinical disease, together with viral transmissibility and the duration of naturally-acquired immunity, is essential in estimating the impact of vaccination programmes and screening or testing regimes. However, the complex natural history of HPV makes this difficult. We infer the viral transmissibility, rate of waning natural immunity and rates of progression and clearance of infection of 13 high-risk and 2 non-oncogenic HPV types, making use of a number of rich datasets from Sweden. Estimates of viral transmissibility, clearance of initial infection and waning immunity were derived in a Bayesian framework by fitting a susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) transmission model to age- and type-specific HPV prevalence data from both a cross-sectional study and a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of primary HPV screening. The models fitted well, but over-estimated the prevalence of four high-risk types with respect to the data. Three of these types (HPV-33, -35 and -58) are among the most closely related phylogenetically to the most prevalent HPV-16. The fourth (HPV-45) is the most closely related to HPV-18; the second most prevalent type. We suggest that this may be an indicator of cross-immunity. Rates of progression and clearance of clinical lesions were additionally estimated from longitudinal data gathered as part of the same RCT. Our estimates of progression and clearance rates are consistent with the findings of survival analysis studies and we extend the literature by estimating progression and clearance rates for non-16 and non-18 high-risk types. We anticipate that such type-specific estimates will be useful in the parameterisation of further models and in developing our understanding of HPV natural history

Human papillomavirus DNA testing for the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and cancer: 5-year follow-up of a randomised controlled implementation trial

Background: Tests for the DNA of high-risk types of human papillomavirus (HPV) have a higher sensitivity for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) than does cytological testing, but the necessity of such testing in cervical screening has been debated. Our aim was to determine whether the effectiveness of cervical screening improves when HPV DNA testing is implemented. Methods: Women aged 29-56 years who were participating in the regular cervical screening programme in the Netherlands were randomly assigned to combined cytological and HPV DNA testing or to conventional cytological testing only. After 5 years, combined cytological and HPV DNA testing were done in both groups. The primary outcome measure was the number of CIN3+ lesions detected. Analyses were done by intention to treat. This trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN20781131. Findings: 8575 women in the intervention group and 8580 in the control group were recruited, followed up for sufficient time (≥6·5 years), and met eligibility criteria for our analyses. More CIN3+ lesions were detected at baseline in the intervention group than in the control group (68/8575 vs 40/8580, 70% increase, 95% CI 15-151; p=0·007). The number of CIN3+ lesions detected in the subsequent round was lower in the intervention group than in the control group (24/8413 vs 54/8456, 55% decrease, 95% CI 28-72; p=0·001). The number of CIN3+ lesions over the two rounds did not differ between groups. Interpretation: The implementation of HPV DNA testing in cervical screening leads to earlier detection of CIN3+ lesions. Earlier detection of such lesions could permit an extension of the screening interval