A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2°C, followed by stabilisation to 4°C

An investigation of minimisation criteria

Minimisation can be used within treatment trials to ensure that prognostic factors are evenly distributed between treatment groups. The technique is relatively straightforward to apply but does require running tallies of patient recruitments to be made and some simple calculations to be performed prior to each allocation. As computing facilities have become more widely available, minimisation has become a more feasible option for many. Although the technique has increased in popularity, the mode of application is often poorly reported and the choice of input parameters not justified in any logical way

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application

Stability of closed gaps for the alternating Kronig-Penney Hamiltonian

We consider the Kronig-Penney model for a quantum crystal with equispaced periodic delta-interactions of alternating strength. For this model all spectral gaps at the centre of the Brillouin zone are known to vanish, although so far this noticeable property has only been proved through a very delicate analysis of the discriminant of the corresponding ODE and the associated monodromy matrix. We provide a new, alternative proof by showing that this model can be approximated, in the norm resolvent sense, by a model of regular periodic interactions with finite range for which all gaps at the centre of the Brillouin zone are still vanishing. In particular this shows that the vanishing gap property is stable in the sense that it is present also for the "physical" approximants and is not only a feature of the idealised model of zero-range interactions. \ua9 2015, Springer Basel

Development of a rapid, sensitive, and field-deployable Razor Ex BioDetection system and quantitative PCR assay for detection of Phymatotrichopsis omnivora using multiple gene targets

A validated, multigene-based method using real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) and the Razor Ex BioDetection system was developed for detection of Phymatotrichopsis omnivora. This soilborne fungus causes Phymatotrichopsis root rot of cotton, alfalfa, and other dicot crops in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico, leading to significant crop losses and limiting the range of crops that can be grown in soils where the fungus is established. It is on multiple lists of regulated organisms. Because P. omnivora is difficult to isolate, accurate and sensitive culture-independent diagnostic tools are needed to confirm infections by this fungus. Specific PCR primers and probes were designed based on P. omnivora nucleotide sequences of the genes encoding rRNA internal transcribed spacers, beta-tubulin, and the second-largest subunit of RNA polymerase II (RPB2). PCR products were cloned and sequenced to confirm their identity. All primer sets allowed early detection of P. omnivora in infected but asymptomatic plants. A modified rapid DNA purification method, which facilitates a quick (about 30-min) on-site assay capability for P. omnivora detection, was developed. Combined use of three target genes increased the assay accuracy and broadened the range of detection. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a multigene-based, field-deployable, rapid, and reliable identification method for a fungal plant pathogen and should serve as a model for the development of field-deployable assays of other phytopathogens.Peer reviewedEntomology and Plant PathologyBiochemistry and Molecular Biolog

Evidence for Paternal Leakage in Hybrid Periodical Cicadas (Hemiptera: Magicicada spp.)

Mitochondrial inheritance is generally assumed to be maternal. However, there is increasing evidence of exceptions to this rule, especially in hybrid crosses. In these cases, mitochondria are also inherited paternally, so “paternal leakage” of mitochondria occurs. It is important to understand these exceptions better, since they potentially complicate or invalidate studies that make use of mitochondrial markers. We surveyed F1 offspring of experimental hybrid crosses of the 17-year periodical cicadas Magicicada septendecim, M. septendecula, and M. cassini for the presence of paternal mitochondrial markers at various times during development (1-day eggs; 3-, 6-, 9-week eggs; 16-month old 1st and 2nd instar nymphs). We found evidence of paternal leakage in both reciprocal hybrid crosses in all of these samples. The relative difficulty of detecting paternal mtDNA in the youngest eggs and ease of detecting leakage in older eggs and in nymphs suggests that paternal mitochondria proliferate as the eggs develop. Our data support recent theoretical predictions that paternal leakage may be more common than previously estimated

Using Time-Resolved Fluorescence to Measure Serum Venom-Specific IgE and IgG

We adapted DELFIA™ (dissociation-enhanced lanthanide fluoroimmunoassay), a time resolved fluorescence method, to quantitate whole venom specific and allergenic peptide-specific IgE (sIgE), sIgG1 and sIgG4 in serum from people clinically allergic to Australian native ant venoms, of which the predominant cause of allergy is jack jumper ant venom (JJAV). Intra-assay CV was 6.3% and inter-assay CV was 13.7% for JJAV sIgE. DELFIA and Phadia CAP JJAV sIgE results correlated well and had similar sensitivity and specificity for the detection of JJAV sIgE against intradermal skin testing as the gold standard. DELFIA was easily adapted for detecting sIgE to a panel of other native ant venoms

Trait determinants of impulsive behavior: a comprehensive analysis of 188 rats

Impulsivity is a naturally occurring behavior that, when accentuated, can be found in a variety of neuropsychiatric disorders. The expression of trait impulsivity has been shown to change with a variety of factors, such as age and sex, but the existing literature does not reflect widespread consensus regarding the influence of modulating effects. We designed the present study to investigate, in a cohort of significant size (188 rats), the impact of four specific parameters, namely sex, age, strain and phase of estrous cycle, using the variable delay-to-signal (VDS) task. This cohort included (i) control animals from previous experiments; (ii) animals specifically raised for this study; and (iii) animals previously used for breeding purposes. Aging was associated with a general decrease in action impulsivity and an increase in delay tolerance. Females generally performed more impulsive actions than males but no differences were observed regarding delay intolerance. In terms of estrous cycle, no differences in impulsive behavior were observed and regarding strain, Wistar Han animals were, in general, more impulsive than Sprague-Dawley. In addition to further confirming, in a substantial study cohort, the decrease in impulsivity with age, we have demonstrated that both the strain and sex influences modulate different aspects of impulsive behavior manifestations.FEDER funds, through the Competitiveness Factors Operational Programme (COMPETE) and the Northern Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the Portugal 2020 Partnership Agreement as well as national funds, through the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) [projects POCI-01–0145-FEDER-007038, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000013, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000023 and PTDC/NEU-SCC/5301/2014]. Researchers were supported by FCT [grant numbers SFRH/BD/52291/2013 to ME and PD/BD/114117/2015 to MRG via Inter-University Doctoral Programme in Ageing and Chronic Disease, PhDOC; PDE/BDE/113601/2015 to PSM via PhD Program in Health Sciences (Applied) and Phd-iHES; SFRH/BD/109111/2015 to AMC; SFRH/BD/51061/2010 to MMC; SFRH/SINTD/60126/2009 to AM; SFRH/BD/98675/2013 to BC; IF/00883/2013 to AJR; IF/00111/2013 to AJS; SFRH/BPD/80118/2011 to HLA]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio