Prognostic value of lymph node ratio and extramural vascular invasion on survival for patients undergoing curative colon cancer resection

There was no study funding. We are grateful to Tony Rafferty (Tailored Information for the People of Scotland, TIPs) for providing survival data.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Regional prediction of landslide hazard using probability analysis of intense rainfall in the Hoa Binh province, Vietnam.

The main objective of this study is to assess regional landslide hazards in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. A landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources with data mainly for a period of 21 years from 1990 to 2010. The historic inventory of these failures shows that rainfall is the main triggering factor in this region. The probability of the occurrence of episodes of rainfall and the rainfall threshold were deduced from records of rainfall for the aforementioned period. The rainfall threshold model was generated based on daily and cumulative values of antecedent rainfall of the landslide events. The result shows that 15-day antecedent rainfall gives the best fit for the existing landslides in the inventory. The rainfall threshold model was validated using the rainfall and landslide events that occurred in 2010 that were not considered in building the threshold model. The result was used for estimating temporal probability of a landslide to occur using a Poisson probability model. Prior to this work, five landslide susceptibility maps were constructed for the study area using support vector machines, logistic regression, evidential belief functions, Bayesian-regularized neural networks, and neuro-fuzzy models. These susceptibility maps provide information on the spatial prediction probability of landslide occurrence in the area. Finally, landslide hazard maps were generated by integrating the spatial and the temporal probability of landslide. A total of 15 specific landslide hazard maps were generated considering three time periods of 1, 3, and 5 years

Modelling the progression of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with other influenza viruses

BACKGROUND: A novel variant of influenza A (H1N1) is causing a pandemic and, although the illness is usually mild, there are concerns that its virulence could change through reassortment with other influenza viruses. This is of greater concern in parts of Southeast Asia, where the population density is high, influenza is less seasonal, human-animal contact is common and avian influenza is still endemic. METHODS: We developed an age- and spatially-structured mathematical model in order to estimate the potential impact of pandemic H1N1 in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with animal influenza viruses. The model tracks human infection among domestic animal owners and non-owners and also estimates the numbers of animals may be exposed to infected humans. RESULTS: In the absence of effective interventions, the model predicts that the introduction of pandemic H1N1 will result in an epidemic that spreads to half of Vietnam's provinces within 57 days (interquartile range (IQR): 45-86.5) and peaks 81 days after introduction (IQR: 62.5-121 days). For the current published range of the 2009 H1N1 influenza's basic reproductive number (1.2-3.1), we estimate a median of 410,000 cases among swine owners (IQR: 220,000-670,000) with 460,000 exposed swine (IQR: 260,000-740,000), 350,000 cases among chicken owners (IQR: 170,000-630,000) with 3.7 million exposed chickens (IQR: 1.9 M-6.4 M), and 51,000 cases among duck owners (IQR: 24,000 - 96,000), with 1.2 million exposed ducks (IQR: 0.6 M-2.1 M). The median number of overall human infections in Vietnam for this range of the basic reproductive number is 6.4 million (IQR: 4.4 M-8.0 M). CONCLUSION: It is likely that, in the absence of effective interventions, the introduction of a novel H1N1 into a densely populated country such as Vietnam will result in a widespread epidemic. A large epidemic in a country with intense human-animal interaction and continued co-circulation of other seasonal and avian viruses would provide substantial opportunities for H1N1 to acquire new genes

The Evaluation of More Lymph Nodes in Colon Cancer Is Associated with Improved Survival in Patients of All Ages

BACKGROUND:Improvement in survival of patients with colon cancer is reduced in elderly patients compared to younger patients. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the removal of ≥ 12 lymph nodes can explain differences in survival rates between elderly and younger patients diagnosed with colon cancer. METHODS:In a population-based cohort study, all patients (N = 41,074) diagnosed with colon cancer stage I to III from 2003 through 2010 from the Netherlands Cancer Registry were included. Age groups were defined as 75 years of age. Main outcome measures were overall and relative survival, the latter as a proxy for disease specific survival. RESULTS:Over an eight years time period there was a 41.2% increase in patients with ≥ 12 lymph nodes removed, whereas the percentage of patients with the presence of lymph node metastases remained stable (35.7% to 37.5%). After adjustment for patient and tumour characteristics and adjuvant chemotherapy, it was found that for patients in which ≥ 12 lymph nodes were removed compared to patients with 75: HR: 0.734 (95% CI, 0.700-0.771)) and relative survival ( 75: RER: 0.621 (95% CI, 0.567-0.681)) in all three age groups. CONCLUSIONS:The removal of ≥ 12 lymph nodes is associated with an improvement in both overall and relative survival in all patients. This association was stronger in the elderly patient. The biology of this association needs further clarification