Transmission Potential of Chikungunya Virus and Control Measures: The Case of Italy

During summer 2007 Italy has experienced an epidemic caused by Chikungunya virus – the first large outbreak documented in a temperate climate country – with approximately 161 laboratory confirmed cases concentrated in two bordering villages in North–Eastern Italy comprising 3,968 inhabitants. The seroprevalence was recently estimated to be 10.2%. In this work we provide estimates of the transmission potential of the virus and we assess the efficacy of the measures undertaken by public health authorities to control the epidemic spread. To such aim, we developed a model describing the temporal dynamics of the competent vector, known as Aedes albopictus, explicitly depending on climatic factors, coupled to an epidemic transmission model describing the spread of the epidemic in both humans and mosquitoes. The cumulative number of notified cases predicted by the model was 185 on average (95% CI 117–278), in good agreement with observed data. The probability of observing a major outbreak after the introduction of an infective human case was estimated to be in the range of 32%–76%. We found that the basic reproduction number was in the range of 1.8–6 but it could have been even larger, depending on the density of mosquitoes, which in turn depends on seasonal meteorological effects, besides other local abiotic factors. These results confirm the increasing risk of tropical vector–borne diseases in temperate climate countries, as a consequence of globalization. However, our results show that an epidemic can be controlled by performing a timely intervention, even if the transmission potential of Chikungunya virus is sensibly high

Mixture models for capture-recapture count data

The contribution investigates the problem of estimating the size of a population, also known as the missing cases problem. Suppose a registration system is targeting to identify all cases having a certain characteristic such as a specific disease (cancer, heart disease, ...), disease related condition (HIV, heroin use, ...) or a specific behavior (driving a car without license). Every case in such a registration system has a certain notification history in that it might have been identified several times (at least once) which can be understood as a particular capture-recapture situation. Typically, cases are left out which have never been listed at any occasion, and it is this frequency one wants to estimate. In this paper modelling is concentrating on the counting distribution, e.g. the distribution of the variable that counts how often a given case has been identified by the registration system. Besides very simple models like the binomial or Poisson distribution, finite (nonparametric) mixtures of these are considered providing rather flexible modelling tools. Estimation is done using maximum likelihood by means of the EM algorithm. A case study on heroin users in Bangkok in the year 2001 is completing the contribution

Identified of a novel cis-element regulating the alternative splicing of LcDREB2

Alternative splicing (AS) is an important gene regulation mechanism in plants. Despite the widespread use of AS in plant gene expression regulation, the identification of the cis-elements involved in the AS mechanism is rarely reported in plants. To explore the regulation mechanism of the AS of LcDREB2, a DREB2 ortholog from Sheepgrass (Leymus chinensis), the genomic sequences of LcDREB2 and its homologs in Poaceae were aligned, and six mutations were introduced in the conserved sequence of LcDREB2. By analyzing the distinct transcript patterns of the LcDREB2 mutants in transgenic Oryza sativa, a novel cis-element that affected the AS of LcDREB2 was identified as Exonic Splicing Enhancer 1 (ESE1). In addition, five serine-arginine rich (SR) proteins were confirmed to interact with ESE1 by electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA). To further explore the expression regulation mechanism of the DREB subfamily, phylogenetic analysis of DREB2 paralogous genes was performed. The results strongly supported the hypothesis that AS is conserved in Poaceae plants and that it is an evolutionary strategy for the regulation of the functional expression of genes. The findings and methods of our study will promote a substantial step forward in understanding of the plant AS regulation mechanism

Phosphatidylinositol Containing Lipidic Particles Reduces Immunogenicity and Catabolism of Factor VIII in Hemophilia A Mice

Factor VIII (FVIII) is an important cofactor in blood coagulation cascade. It is a multidomain protein that consists of six domains, NH2-A1-A2-B-A3-C1-C2-COOH. The deficiency or dysfunction of FVIII causes hemophilia A, a life-threatening bleeding disorder. Replacement therapy using recombinant FVIII (rFVIII) is the first line of therapy, but a major clinical complication is the development of inhibitory antibodies that abrogate the pharmacological activity of the administered protein. FVIII binds to anionic phospholipids (PL), such as phosphatidylinositol (PI), via lipid binding region within the C2 domain of FVIII. This lipid binding site not only consists of immunodominant epitopes but is also involved in von Willebrand factor binding that protects FVIII from degradation in vivo. Thus, we hypothesize that FVIII–PL complex will influence immunogenicity and catabolism of FVIII. The biophysical studies showed that PI binding did not alter conformation of the protein but improved intrinsic stability as measured by thermal denaturation studies. ELISA studies confirmed the involvement of the C2 domain in binding to PI containing lipid particles. PI binding prolonged the in vivo circulation time and reduced catabolism of FVIII in hemophilia A mice. FVIII–PI complex reduced inhibitor development in hemophilia A mice following intravenous and subcutaneous administration. The data suggest that PI binding reduces catabolism and immunogenicity of FVIII and has potential to be a useful therapeutic approach for hemophilia A