Nonlinear exchange rate transmission in the euro area: A multivariate smooth transition regression approach

© 2018, Economics Bulletin. This paper examines the presence of nonlinear behavior in the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for a set of euro area countries. We propose to solve the endogeneity problem inherent in single-equation-based methods by implementing the family of nonlinear vector smooth transition regression (VSTR) models. Using quarterly data that span from 1980:1 to 2015:4, linearity tests reveal that the ERPT responds nonlinearly to economic growth. According to the pass-through elasticities, exchange rate transmission differs significantly between the identified economic activity regimes. However, our results underscore the presence of heterogeneous profiles across the euro area economies. For some countries, the ERPT is higher during expansions than during recessions; however, the result is reversed for others. Our findings emphasize the role of a declining ERPT, as it may foster business cycle synchronization and inflation convergence within the monetary union

Travel burden and clinical presentation of retinoblastoma: analysis of 1024 patients from 43 African countries and 518 patients from 40 European countries

BACKGROUND: The travel distance from home to a treatment centre, which may impact the stage at diagnosis, has not been investigated for retinoblastoma, the most common childhood eye cancer. We aimed to investigate the travel burden and its impact on clinical presentation in a large sample of patients with retinoblastoma from Africa and Europe. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis including 518 treatment-naïve patients with retinoblastoma residing in 40 European countries and 1024 treatment-naïve patients with retinoblastoma residing in 43 African countries. RESULTS: Capture rate was 42.2% of expected patients from Africa and 108.8% from Europe. African patients were older (95% CI -12.4 to -5.4, p<0.001), had fewer cases of familial retinoblastoma (95% CI 2.0 to 5.3, p<0.001) and presented with more advanced disease (95% CI 6.0 to 9.8, p<0.001); 43.4% and 15.4% of Africans had extraocular retinoblastoma and distant metastasis at the time of diagnosis, respectively, compared to 2.9% and 1.0% of the Europeans. To reach a retinoblastoma centre, European patients travelled 421.8 km compared to Africans who travelled 185.7 km (p<0.001). On regression analysis, lower-national income level, African residence and older age (p<0.001), but not travel distance (p=0.19), were risk factors for advanced disease. CONCLUSIONS: Fewer than half the expected number of patients with retinoblastoma presented to African referral centres in 2017, suggesting poor awareness or other barriers to access. Despite the relatively shorter distance travelled by African patients, they presented with later-stage disease. Health education about retinoblastoma is needed for carers and health workers in Africa in order to increase capture rate and promote early referral

Prevalence of molecular markers of drug resistance in an area of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in children in Senegal.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, malaria is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality especially in children. In Senegal, seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) previously referred to as intermittent preventive treatment in children (IPTc) is a new strategy for malaria control in areas of high seasonal transmission. An effectiveness study of SMC, using sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) plus amodiaquine (AQ), was conducted in central Senegal from 2008 to 2010 to obtain information about safety, feasibility of delivery, and cost effectiveness of SMC. Here are report the effect of SMC delivery on the prevalence of markers of resistance to SP and AQ. METHODS: This study was conducted in three health districts in Senegal with 54 health posts with a gradual introduction of SMC. Three administrations of the combination AQ + SP were made during the months of September, October and November of each year in children aged less than 10 years living in the area. Children were surveyed in December of each year and samples (filter paper and thick films) were made in 2008, 2009 and 2010. The prevalence of mutations in the pfdhfr, pfdhps, pfmdr1 and pfcrt genes was investigated by sequencing and RTPCR in samples positive by microscopy for Plasmodium falciparum. RESULTS: Mutations at codon 540 of pfdhps and codon 164 of pfdhfr were not detected in the study. Among children with parasitaemia at the end of the transmission seasons, the CVIET haplotypes of pfcrt and the 86Y polymorphism of pfmdr1 were more common among those that had received SMC, but the number of infections detected was very low and confidence intervals were wide. The overall prevalence of these mutations was lower in SMC areas than in control areas, reflecting the lower prevalence of parasitaemia in areas where SMC was delivered. CONCLUSION: The sensitivity of P. falciparum to SMC drugs should be regularly monitored in areas deploying this intervention. Overall the prevalence of genotypes associated with resistance to either SP or AQ was lower in SMC areas due to the reduced number of parasitaemia individuals