Numerical modeling analysis of the mesoscale environment conducive to two tornado events using the COSMO.Gr model over Greece

The COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling (COSMO) was formed in October 1998, and its general goal is to develop, improve and maintain a non-hydrostatic limited-area atmospheric model. The COSMO model has been designed both for operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) as well as various scientific applications on the meso-β and meso-γ scale. Two tornado case studies were selected to investigate the ability of COSMO model to depict the characteristics of severe convective weather, which favoured the development of the associated storms. The first tornado (TR01) occurred, close to Ag. Ilias village, 8 Km north-western of Aitoliko city over western Greece on February 7, 2013, while the second tornado (TR02) was developed close to Palio Katramio village, 8 Km southern from Xanthi city over northern Greece on November 25, 2015. Although both tornadoes had a short lifetime, they caused significant damages. The COSMO.GR atmospheric model was initialized with analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The resulting numerical products with spatial resolution of 0.02° (∼ 2 km) over the geographical domain of Greece depicted very well the severe convective conditions close to tornadoes formation. The Energy Helicity Index (EHI) diagnostic variable in both numerical simulations showed a gradual increase of values closing to the location and time of the tornadogenesis. Similar to EHI, the storm relative helicity (SRH) spatio-temporal analysis followed a gradual increase prior to the tornadogenesis events and was reduced after them. © 2017 Elsevier B.V