Integrating stakeholders' goals, research disciplines and levels of scale.

LUSA (Land Use Systems Analysis), a new methodology to develop sustainable agro-ecosystems as part of land-use planning, combines high-tech assessment methodologies, such as multicriteria computer models, with participatory methodologies. LUSA has been tested in Sub-Saharan West Afric

Land use systems analysis as a tool in land use planning : with special reference to North and West African agro-ecosystems

The various multidisciplinary projects presented in this thesis, in hindsight, all contributed to a new approach to land use planning. Hence, their results are placed in a holistic perspective via this approach. Part A presents a method for characterizing land use on the basis of transect surveys (Côte d'Ivoire; Chapter 2). In Chapter 3, an interactive multiple goal linear programming model is described as a method to quantify natural and human resources, and to analyse the relations between various crop and animal husbandry systems. In Part B, nutrient relations are examined with the aim of arriving at fertilizer recommendations for cereals through field experimentation (Senegal; Chapter 4), and literature review and simulation modelling (Chapter 5). Additionally, the effects of grazing on subshrubs in Egypt are examined by field experiments and simulation to quantify the availability of this feed resource (Chapter 6). Part C shows possible land use options, on the basis of a simulation model for managing integrated small ruminant - barley - subshrub systems (Egypt; Chapter 7), and a multiple goal linear programming model to examine the importance of fertilizer availability for self-sufficiency in food (Mali; Chapter 8). A synthesis (Chapter 9) presents 'Land Use Systems Analysis' after evaluating the current methods of land use planning. The importance of goals, scales, tools, and the time-path for attaining goals are discussed, and recommendations are made for the future application of land use systems analysis

Land Use Systems Analysis, a Multi-Scale Methodology to Explore Options for Development of Sustainable Agricultural Production Systems

In many developing countnes, llmitlng factors for development of sustalnable production systems Include varlabll~ty In agroecologlcal and soclo-econom~c cond~tlons, poor access to gec-referenced data and lnformatlon, and poor relatlonshlp between the civil soclety, researchers and decls~on makers Working wlth Interactwe Development Scenarios (IDS) models may provlde a way to plan (agr~cultural)d evelopment Thls tool can Integrate results of vanous methods that asslst In land use plannlng Nlne methods are bnefly discussed and evaluated All methods depend on reliable baslc data, but many drsplay Inadequate plannlng procedures, statlc approaches and neglect of soclo-economlc aspects Therefore, an alternative methodology "Land Use Systems Analysls (LUSA)" 1s belng presented It alms to cover the successful management of resources to satisfy changlng human needs wlthout degrading the envlronment or the natural resource base Components and the functlonlng of land use systems are analysed In flve steps, In an ~nterdlsclpllnaryw ay, to glve quantlfled and clear altematlve land use optlons on different scales Based on thls approach, ICRISAT has started In 1996 a joint research project based on thls approach with NARS In Mall. Burkina Faso and Nlger, entitled "Exploltlng multi-scale varlablllty of land use systems to Improve natural resource management In the Sudano-Sahellan zone of West Afnca (MUSCLUS)" Four levels of scale are dlstlngulshed agro-ecological zone, dlstnct, village land, and household Its goals and expected outputs are presented In thls pape

Use of a scoring technique to assess the effect of field variability on yield of pearl millet grown on three alfisols in Niger.

Within-field spatial variability of pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum) was studied at three different sites on Alfisols in Niger. Grain yields in fields on a North-South gradient were 8-383, 2-1343, 7-815 kg/ha, with a coefficient of variation of 61, 55, and 53%, respectively. Variability was explained by soil chemical factors for only 5 to 28%. A simple method of scoring millet growth for individual hills a few weeks before harvest was tested by measuring yield variability in a field as an alternative for expensive soil chemical analyses. The median score value explained 25, 67, and 8% of the variability for the same gradient, respectively. As a verification step, map pattern comparisons of millet grain and straw yields with median score values gave low taxonomic distances (0.01-1.7), indicating significant similarities in variability. The hill scoring method is an appropriate tool to identify millet grain and straw yield variability

Impact of climate change on agricultural production in the Sahel – Part 1. Methodological approach and case study for millet in Niger

In the last 30 years the climate of the West African Sahel has shown various changes, especially in terms of rainfall, of which inter-annual variabilityis very high. This has significant consequences for the poor-resource farmers, whose incomes depend mainly on rainfed agriculture. The West African Sahel is already known as an area characterized by important interaction between climate variability and key socio-economic sectors such as agriculture and water resources. More than 80% of the 55 million population of West African Sahel is rural, involved in agriculture and stock-farming, the two sectors contributing almost 35% of the countries' GDPs. It is thereforeobvious that climate change seriously affects the economies of these countries. Adding to this situation the high rate of population increase(∼3%), leading to progressive pressure upon ecosystems, and poorsanitary facilities, one comes to the conclusion that Sahelian countries, Niger amongst them, will be highly vulnerable to climate change.This paper investigates the impact of current climate variability and future climate change on millet production for three major millet-producing regions in Niger. Statistical models have been used to predict the effects of climate change on future production on the basis of thirteen available predictors. Based on the analysis of the past 30-years of rainfall and production data, the most significant predictors of the model are (i) seasurface temperature anomalies, (ii) the amount of rainfall in July, August and September, (iii) the number of rainy days and (iv) the wind erosion factor. In 2025, production of millet is estimated to be about 13% lower as a consequence of climate change, translated into a reduction of the total amount of rainfall for July, August and September, combined with an increase in temperature while maintaining other significant predictors at a constant level. Subsequently,various potential strategies to compensate this loss are evaluated, including those to increase water use efficiency and to cultivate varieties that are adapted to such circumstance

Impact of climate change on agricultural production in the Sahel – Part 2. Case study for groundnut and cowpea in Niger

During the last 30 years, the climate of the West African Sahel has undergone various changes, especially in terms of rainfall. This has large consequences for the poor-resource farmers depending mainly on rainfed agriculture. This paper investigates the impacts of current climate variability and future climate change on groundnut and cowpea production in Niger for three major agricultural regions, including the groundnut basin.Niger was one of the largest West African groundnut producing and exporting countries. Groundnut production – as a cash crop – dropped fromabout 312,000 tons in the mid 1960s (about 68% exported) to as low as 13,000tons in 1988 and increased again to 110,000 tons in 2000. Cowpea, a food crop, showsa different tendency, going from 4,000 tons in the mid fifties to a maximum of 775,000 tons in 1997, and its cultivated area is still increasing. It is also a cash crop in local economies (especially for women).To highlight the impact of climate change on groundnut and cowpea production (significantly determined by rainfall in July, August and September), the following components of the rainfall regime were calculated for the period 1951–1998: mean annual and monthly rainfall, beginning, end and lengthof the rainy season, number of rainy days per month, amount of rainfall per rainy day and the maximum length of dry spell per month. Three sub-periods whose duration varied per region were defined: for Dosso 1951–1968,1969–1984 and 1985–1998; for Maradi 1951–1970, 1971–1987 and1988–1998; and for Zinder 1951–1966, 1967–1984 and 1985–1998. A change in rainfallregime components was observed between the three sub-periods, which were characterized in chronological order by wet, dry and intermediate conditions. To assess the impact of climate variability and change on groundnut and cowpea production, a statistical modeling approach has been followed, based on thirteen predictors as described and discussed in the preceding paper. Climate change is mimicked in terms of reduced total amount of rainfall for the three main rainfall months and an increased temperature, while maintaining other significant predictors at a constant level. In 2025,production of groundnut is estimated to be between 11 and 25% lower, while cowpeayield will fall maximally 30%. Various strategies to compensate thispotential loss are presented for the two crop

Fertility management and landscape position: farmers' use of nutrient sources in western Niger and possible improvements

Poor millet growth and yields in Niger are commonly attributed to rainfall deficits and low soil nutrient content. Land management by local farmers is done as a function of soil types, crops, and available resources. Farmer management practices in millet fields located on four different landscape positions were studied in a village in western Niger located near the 600 mm isohyet. Average distance from homestead to field was 980 m, with fields in the valley bottom much closer (average 225 m) and fields on the plateau much further (average 2300 m). Farmers considered the valley and plateau fields slightly more fertile than the other fields, but rainfall infiltration on plateau fields is often relatively poor. Nitrogen and phosphorus contents in the soil were highest on the less intensively cropped plateaus. More than 50% of the fields did not receive any applied nutrients other than during livestock grazing of leftover stover. Manure application was done through corralling in only four of the fields studied (20%), out of which three were farmed by Fulani using their own herds for manuring. There was no significant effect of landscape unit on yield, though yields in the valley and on the upper slope were slightly higher than average. Millet grain yields, soil carbon and soil phosphorus decreased significantly with distance from the living quarters. This may be because manuring usually takes place close to home (average distance in 1997 <200 m). Manure application increased millet grain production from 126 kg ha−1 to 316 kg ha−1 in 1997. Manuring yielded more than 1000 kg ha−1 in 1996, when rainfall was much more favourable. Fallowed fields yielded an average 143 kg ha−1 of millet grain in 1997, with fallow taking place an average of 1640 m from the homestead. Another soil fertility management practice included use of millet threshing residues in fields adjacent to the village. There was no chemical fertilizer application. Any improvement to the system will require the solution of existing constraints limiting the integration of livestock and crops and/or limiting the input of external sources of nutrients in Niger. These limitations can include lack of land to allow fallowing practices and/or grazing; local non-availability of mineral fertiliser; lack of capital to buy fertiliser, due in part to low millet prices; lack of means of transport for inputs; but also lack of means for pest control and lack of labour for sowing, weeding and thinning. Initial improvements may be made by making more efficient use of the available manure, through much lighter and slightly more frequent manuring of much larger area