Clinical prediction rules for failed nonoperative reduction of intussusception

Jiraporn Khorana,1 Jayanton Patumanond,2 Nuthapong Ukarapol,3 Mongkol Laohapensang,4 Pannee Visrutaratna,5 Jesda Singhavejsakul1 1Department of Surgery, Division of Pediatric Surgery, Chiang Mai University Hospital, Chiang Mai, 2Center of Excellence in Applied Epidemiology, Thammasat University Hospital, Bangkok, 3Department of Pediatrics, Division of Gastroenterology, Chiang Mai University Hospital, Chiang Mai, 4Department of Surgery, Division of Pediatric Surgery, Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, 5Department of Radiology, Chiang Mai University Hospital, Chiang Mai, Thailand Purpose: The nonoperative reduction of intussusception in children can be performed safely if there are no contraindications. Many risk factors associated with failed reduction were defined. The aim of this study was to develop a scoring system for predicting the failure of nonoperative reduction using various determinants.Patients and methods: The data were collected from Chiang Mai University Hospital and Siriraj Hospital from January 2006 to December 2012. Inclusion criteria consisted of patients with intussusception aged 0–15 years with no contraindications for nonoperative reduction. The clinical prediction rules were developed using significant risk factors from the multivariable analysis.Results: A total of 170 patients with intussusception were included in the study. In the final analysis model, 154 patients were used for identifying the significant risk factors of failure of reduction. Ten factors clustering by the age of 3 years were identified and used for developing the clinical prediction rules, and the factors were as follows: body weight <12 kg (relative risk [RR] =1.48, P=0.004), duration of symptoms >48 hours (RR =1.26, P<0.001), vomiting (RR =1.63, P<0.001), rectal bleeding (RR =1.50, P<0.001), abdominal distension (RR =1.60, P=0.003), temperature >37.8°C (RR =1.51, P<0.001), palpable mass (RR =1.26, P<0.001), location of mass (left over right side RR =1.48, P<0.001), ultrasound showed poor prognostic signs (RR =1.35, P<0.001), and the method of reduction (hydrostatic over pneumatic, RR =1.34, P=0.023). Prediction scores ranged from 0 to 16. A high-risk group (scores 12–16) predicted a greater chance of reduction failure (likelihood ratio of positive [LR+] =18.22, P<0.001). A low-risk group (score 0–11) predicted a lower chance of reduction failure (LR+ =0.79, P<0.001). The performance of the scoring model was 80.68% (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve).Conclusion: This scoring guideline was used to predict the results of nonoperative reduction and forecast the prognosis of the failed reduction. The usefulness of these prediction scores is for informing the parents before the reduction. This scoring system can be used as a guide to promote the possible referral of the cases to tertiary centers with facilities for nonoperative reduction if possible. Keywords: intussusception, nonoperative reduction, failure rate, clinical prediction rule

Clinical prediction rules for failed nonoperative reduction of intussusception

Jiraporn Khorana,1 Jayanton Patumanond,2 Nuthapong Ukarapol,3 Mongkol Laohapensang,4 Pannee Visrutaratna,5 Jesda Singhavejsakul1 1Department of Surgery, Division of Pediatric Surgery, Chiang Mai University Hospital, Chiang Mai, 2Center of Excellence in Applied Epidemiology, Thammasat University Hospital, Bangkok, 3Department of Pediatrics, Division of Gastroenterology, Chiang Mai University Hospital, Chiang Mai, 4Department of Surgery, Division of Pediatric Surgery, Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, 5Department of Radiology, Chiang Mai University Hospital, Chiang Mai, Thailand Purpose: The nonoperative reduction of intussusception in children can be performed safely if there are no contraindications. Many risk factors associated with failed reduction were defined. The aim of this study was to develop a scoring system for predicting the failure of nonoperative reduction using various determinants.Patients and methods: The data were collected from Chiang Mai University Hospital and Siriraj Hospital from January 2006 to December 2012. Inclusion criteria consisted of patients with intussusception aged 0–15 years with no contraindications for nonoperative reduction. The clinical prediction rules were developed using significant risk factors from the multivariable analysis.Results: A total of 170 patients with intussusception were included in the study. In the final analysis model, 154 patients were used for identifying the significant risk factors of failure of reduction. Ten factors clustering by the age of 3 years were identified and used for developing the clinical prediction rules, and the factors were as follows: body weight <12 kg (relative risk [RR] =1.48, P=0.004), duration of symptoms >48 hours (RR =1.26, P<0.001), vomiting (RR =1.63, P<0.001), rectal bleeding (RR =1.50, P<0.001), abdominal distension (RR =1.60, P=0.003), temperature >37.8°C (RR =1.51, P<0.001), palpable mass (RR =1.26, P<0.001), location of mass (left over right side RR =1.48, P<0.001), ultrasound showed poor prognostic signs (RR =1.35, P<0.001), and the method of reduction (hydrostatic over pneumatic, RR =1.34, P=0.023). Prediction scores ranged from 0 to 16. A high-risk group (scores 12–16) predicted a greater chance of reduction failure (likelihood ratio of positive [LR+] =18.22, P<0.001). A low-risk group (score 0–11) predicted a lower chance of reduction failure (LR+ =0.79, P<0.001). The performance of the scoring model was 80.68% (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve).Conclusion: This scoring guideline was used to predict the results of nonoperative reduction and forecast the prognosis of the failed reduction. The usefulness of these prediction scores is for informing the parents before the reduction. This scoring system can be used as a guide to promote the possible referral of the cases to tertiary centers with facilities for nonoperative reduction if possible. Keywords: intussusception, nonoperative reduction, failure rate, clinical prediction rule

Enema reduction of intussusception: the success rate of hydrostatic and pneumatic reduction

Jiraporn Khorana,1 Jesda Singhavejsakul,1 Nuthapong Ukarapol,2 Mongkol Laohapensang,3 Junsujee Wakhanrittee,4 Jayanton Patumanond5 1Division of Pediatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, 2Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Pediatrics, Chiang Mai University Hospital, Chiang Mai, 3Division of Pediatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, 4Division of Pediatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, Thammasat University Hospital, 5Center of Excellence in Applied Epidemiology, Thammasat University Hospital, Pathumthani, Thailand Purpose: Intussusception is a common surgical emergency in infants and children. The incidence of intussusception is from one to four per 2,000 infants and children. If there is no peritonitis, perforation sign on abdominal radiographic studies, and nonresponsive shock, nonoperative reduction by pneumatic or hydrostatic enema can be performed. The purpose of this study was to compare the success rates of both the methods.Methods: Two institutional retrospective cohort studies were performed. All intussusception patients (ICD-10 code K56.1) who had visited Chiang Mai University Hospital and Siriraj Hospital from January 2006 to December 2012 were included in the study. The data were obtained by chart reviews and electronic databases, which included demographic data, symptoms, signs, and investigations. The patients were grouped according to the method of reduction followed into pneumatic reduction and hydrostatic reduction groups with the outcome being the success of the reduction technique.Results: One hundred and seventy episodes of intussusception occurring in the patients of Chiang Mai University Hospital and Siriraj Hospital were included in this study. The success rate of pneumatic reduction was 61% and that of hydrostatic reduction was 44% (P=0.036). Multivariable analysis and adjusting of the factors by propensity scores were performed; the success rate of pneumatic reduction was 1.48 times more than that of hydrostatic reduction (P=0.036, 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.03–2.13).Conclusion: Both pneumatic and hydrostatic reduction can be performed safely according to the experience of the radiologist or pediatric surgeon and hospital setting. This study showed that pneumatic reduction had a higher success rate than hydrostatic reduction. Keywords: intussusception, pneumatic reduction, hydrostatic reduction, success rate&nbsp