A quickest detection problem with an observation cost

In the classical quickest detection problem, one must detect as quickly as possible when a Brownian motion without drift "changes" into a Brownian motion with positive drift. The change occurs at an unknown "disorder" time with exponential distribution. There is a penalty for declaring too early that the change has occurred, and a cost for late detection proportional to the time between occurrence of the change and the time when the change is declared. Here, we consider the case where there is also a cost for observing the process. This stochastic control problem can be formulated using either the notion of strong solution or of weak solution of the s.d.e. that defines the observation process. We show that the value function is the same in both cases, even though no optimal strategy exists in the strong formulation. We determine the optimal strategy in the weak formulation and show, using a form of the "principle of smooth fit" and under natural hypotheses on the parameters of the problem, that the optimal strategy takes the form of a two-threshold policy: observe only when the posterior probability that the change has already occurred, given the observations, is larger than a threshold $A\geq0$, and declare that the disorder time has occurred when this posterior probability exceeds a threshold $B\geq A$. The constants $A$ and $B$ are determined explicitly from the parameters of the problem.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AAP1028 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Esscher transform and the duality principle for multidimensional semimartingales

The duality principle in option pricing aims at simplifying valuation problems that depend on several variables by associating them to the corresponding dual option pricing problem. Here, we analyze the duality principle for options that depend on several assets. The asset price processes are driven by general semimartingales, and the dual measures are constructed via an Esscher transformation. As an application, we can relate swap and quanto options to standard call and put options. Explicit calculations for jump models are also provided.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AAP600 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Small-Angle X-ray and neutron scattering from diamond single crystals

Results of Small-Angle Scattering study of diamonds with various types of point and extended defects and different degrees of annealing are presented. It is shown that thermal annealing and/or mechanical deformation cause formation of nanosized planar and threedimensional defects giving rise to Small-Angle Scattering. The defects are often facetted by crystallographic planes 111, 100, 110, 311, 211 common for diamond. The scattering defects likely consist of clusters of intrinsic and impurity-related defects; boundaries of mechanical twins also contribute to the SAS signal. There is no clear correlation between concentration of nitrogen impurity and intensity of the scattering.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures; presented at SANS-YuMO User Meeting 2011, Dubna, Russi

A New Look at Pricing of the Russian Option

The “Russian option” was introduced and calculated with the help of the solution of the optimal stopping problem for a two-dimensional Markov process in [10]. This paper proposes a new derivation of the general results [10]. The key idea is to introduce the dual martingale measure which permits one to reduce the “two-dimensional” optimal stopping problem to a “one-dimensional” one. This approach simplifies the discussion and explain the simplicity of the answer found in [10]