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Non-standard errors
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants
NineteenthâCentury Tides in the Gulf of Maine and Implications for Secular Trends
Since the early twentieth century, the amplitudes of tidal constituents in the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy display clear secular trends that are among the largest anywhere observed for a regional body of water. The M2 amplitude at Eastport, Maine, increased at a rate of 14.1 ± 1.2 cm per century until it temporarily dropped during 1980â1990, apparently in response to changes in the wider North Atlantic. Annual tidal analyses indicate M2 reached an allâtime high amplitude last year (2018). Here we report new estimates of tides derived from nineteenth century waterâlevel measurements found in the U.S. National Archives. Results from Eastport, Portland, and Pulpit Harbor (tied to Bar Harbor) do not follow the twentieth century trends and indicate that the Gulf of Maine tide changes commenced sometime in the late nineteenth or early twentieth centuries, coincident with a transition to modern rates of seaâlevel rise as observed at Boston and Portland. General agreement is that sea level rise alone is insufficient to cause the twentiethâcentury tide changes. A role for ocean stratification is suggested by the longâterm warming of Gulf of Maine waters; archival water temperatures at Boston, Portland, and Eastport show increases of âŒ2 °C since the 1880s. In addition, a changing seasonal dependence in M2 amplitudes is reflected in a changing seasonal dependence in water temperatures. The observations suggest that models seeking to reproduce Gulf of Maine tides must consider both sea level rise and longâterm changes in stratification
Do Foreigners Know Better? A Comparison of the Performance of Local and Foreign Mutual Fund Managers
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