Applications of mathematical programming on four New Zealand horticultural holdings : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Horticultural Science in Massey University

Although fifteen years have passed since the publication of Dorfman's article 1 Dorfman, Robert, "Mathematical or 'Linear' Programming, a Non-Mathematical Exposition," American Economic Review, vol.43,p.797, 1953. describing linear programming in terms readily understood by the most non-mathematical agricultural economist, and fourteen years have lapsed since Heady published an article 2 Heady, Earl o., "Simplified Presentation and Logical Aspects of Linear Programming Technique," Journal of Farm Economics, vol.36, p. 1035, 1954. demonstrating the obvious potential of linear programming in solving a large class of farm management problems, 'real life' applications of programming, particularly those concerned with horticultural management are surprisingly few. 3 For interesting applications of programming to horticultural or part-horticultural holdings, see: Simpson, I.G., Hales, A.W., and Fletcher, A., "Linear Programming and Uncertain Prices in Horticulture," Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol.15, P.617, 1963; Camm, B.M., "Risk in Vegetable Production on a Fen Farm," The Farm economist, vol.10, p.89, 1962-65; Wesney, D. , "A study or the Financial Returns to Process Pea Growers in Hawkes Bay," unpublished M.Agr .Sc. thesis, Massey University Library, 1964; and Tyler, G.J., "An Application of Linear Programming," Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol.13, p.473, 1960. Linear programming has been accepted in the U.S.A. as an extremely useful and versatile tool for both farm management research and advisory work but has not as yet been widely accepted in the United Kingdom, where simpler techniques such as Programme Planning 4 Clarke, G.B. and Simpson, I.G., "A Theoretical Approach to the Profit Maximisation Problems in Farm Management," Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 13, p.25o, 1959. For a comparison of the merits of Programme Planning and Linear Programming see Candler, Wilfred and Warren Musgrave, "A Practical Approach to the Profit Maximisation Problems in Farm Management," Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol.14, p.2O8, 1960.are advocated. Official advisory services in New Zealand tend to be based on techniques used in the United Kingdom and hence linear programming has not been given adequate opportunity to demonstrate its usefulness

Studies in Trade and Investment - AGRICULTURAL TRADE - PLANTING THE SEEDS OF REGIONAL LIBERALIZATION IN ASIA

this chapter points out policy priorities and future research needs on regional agricultural trade liberalization.agricultural trade liberalization, policy

Food consumption patterns and nutrition in urban Java households: the discriminatory power of some socioeconomic variables

Food consumption patterns are undergoing substantial change in many countries as economic development proceeds. The trend is a move away from traditional cereals towards higher‐value and higher‐protein foods. Explaining such changes only in terms of traditional economic variables can lead to biased estimates of income effects and perhaps biased projections of food demand. Household survey data from Indonesia are used to measure the importance of several socioeconomic variables in explaining differences in household food consumption patterns and nutrition. Household expenditure and the level of women’s education are shown to be the most influential in this explanation.Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Modelling the impact of policies to reduce environmental impacts in the New Zealand dairy sector

Agriculture remains a major sector of the New Zealand economy, with the vast majority of farm and food production exported. The accelerating intensification of farming in New Zealand over recent decades raises concern over the current sustainability of New Zealand farming, and whether it can remain so in the future. In this study, we focus on the impacts of policies to reduce environmental impacts of dairy farming, with a particular focus on nitrogen pollution and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. We use a modified version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and database, with improved specification of the agricultural sector and land-use. We augment the model with environmental indicators for New Zealand, including nitrogen balances and GHG emissions. We simulate a range of scenarios involving reductions in fertiliser use and stocking rates on dairy farms, from an updated 2010 database. In particular, we consider seven scenarios, with the objective of exploring reductions in the dairy stocking rate and the application of nitrogenous fertiliser to dairy farms to target reductions in the dairy sector’s nitrogen balance of 10%, 20% and 30%. Reducing fertiliser use and stocking rates are two of the approaches that dairy farmers can take in order to reduce their emissions of nitrogen and GHGs. Our results suggest that the nitrogen balance could be reduced by 10% with a 16% cut in nitrogenous fertiliser and a 5% fall in the stocking rate. Reducing fertiliser use and stocking rate by 31% and 11% respectively could result in a 20% cut to the dairy sector’s nitrogen balance. To achieve a 30% reduction in the nitrogen balance, our results suggest that the cut back in fertiliser use would need to be 45%, with the stocking rate reduced by 19%. Across these scenarios, our results indicate that value added in the dairy farm sector could fall by between 2% and 13%, while export earnings from dairy products may fall by between US$269 million and US$1,145 million

Agricultural Policy Reform and Industry Adjustment in Australia and New Zealand

Some sectors of Australian and New Zealand farming have been heavily assisted in the past. New Zealand underwent an economy-wide deregulation in the mid-to-late 980s that included abrupt removal of practically all agricultural assistance. Policy reform in Australia has been more gradual and is industry focused, but in some cases substantial industry assistance has been withdrawn. Deregulation of the Australian dairy industry, and that of the sheep and beef sector in New Zealand, are discussed as case studies of these deregulations. Conclusions are drawn from these experiences, a major one being that previously-assisted farmers can successfully make the transition to market-driven agriculture.agricultural adjustment, policy reform, Australia, New Zealand, Agricultural and Food Policy,

HOG PRODUCTION IN CHINA: TECHNOLOGICAL BIAS AND FACTOR DEMAND

China's agricultural output has expanded rapidly since the economic reforms of the late 1970s, reflecting both productivity growth and mobilization of inputs. Over the same period, increased consumption of livestock products has been a feature of China's food consumption. Widely different projections of China's demand for feedgrains to feed its expanding livestock sector have motivated this research. Productivity growth is an important component of such projections, but past estimates have been controversial, few focus on livestock, and we are aware of none that examine technological bias in China's livestock production. For example, does the nature of technical progress lead to increased or reduced use of feedgrains relative to other inputs? A feature of China's livestock sector is rapid structural change towards larger and more commercial and intensive production systems. As specialization has developed over the last two decades, the share of backyard livestock production has declined and the shares of specialized households and commercial enterprises have increased. We measure technological change and biases for each of these structures so that this information can be eventually combined with that on structural change when making feedgrain demand projections. Our commodity focus in this paper is on hog production, which is the major consumer of feedgrains in China. We use a translog cost function and adjusted livestock data to estimate technological change and biases. Technical change has not been neutral, and the bias towards feedgrain-saving was found to be statistically significant. We also find that the demand for feedgrains is elastic with respect to its own price and that strong substitution relationships exist with respect to some other inputs. Thus input price changes are important, along with technological biases, in changing the feedgrain input shares to hog production.Production Economics,

The impact of comprehensive tariff reductions in multilateral trade: further results from computable general equilibrium simulations

Despite their welfare-improving properties, negotiations on tariff reductions remain a highly contentious issue. Using the GTAP general equilibrium approach, this paper identifies potential winners and losers from partial removal of remaining tariffs in disaggregated sectors. By considering alternative approaches to further liberalising trade in three broadly defined sectors (agriculture, textiles and manufacturing), the paper establishes empirically the clear superiority of a comprehensive trade reform package which encompasses all sectors and geographic regions. Trade negotiators at the currently deadlocked Doha Round should take note of this result as a possible means of breaking the impasse.tariffs, CGE model, Doha Round

PROJECTIONS OF DAIRY PRODUCT CONSUMPTION AND TRADE OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

China has been rapidly increasing its consumption and imports of dairy products in recent years. A two-stage demand system was estimated for livestock product consumption in urban China over the 1990s. Total expenditure elasticities for the livestock commodity group and expenditure elasticities for dairy products within the livestock commodity group were calculated. The results suggest that dairy products, even in urban areas, remain luxury goods because of a high expenditure elasticity (1.26). Due to rapidly increasing consumption and the likelihood of inadequate supply growth, China will continue to increase its imports of dairy products to meet its domestic demand. Projections imply that China's imports of dairy products may approach 30 percent of its total domestic consumption by 2005. Due to differences in regional income and population growth rates, increases in dairy products consumption may occur especially in central and coastal areas, where potential trade opportunities may exist.Consumer/Household Economics,

LIVESTOCK PRODUCTIVITY IN CHINA: DATA REVISION AND TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY DECOMPOSITION

Studies of total factor productivity in livestock production are rare, but when available provide useful information especially in the context of developing countries such as China where livestock is becoming more important in the domestic agricultural economy. We estimate total factor productivity (TFP) for four major livestock products in China and by employing the random coefficient frontier approach, decompose productivity growth into its technical efficiency and technical progress components. Efforts were made to adjust and augment the available livestock statistics. The results show that growth in TFP and its components varied between the 1980s and the 1990s as well as over production structures. While there is evidence of considerable technical innovation in China's livestock sector, technical efficiency improvement was relatively slow.Random coefficient approach, total factor productivity, technical efficiency and progress, China, livestock., Q100, Q160, Productivity Analysis, D240,

A ROAD AHEAD FROM CANCUN? WEIGHING UP SOME GIVE-AND-TAKE SCENARIOS IN A DDA SPIRIT

Given that around 20 percent of the members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) are identified as least developed countries (LDC's), global trade negotiations, resumed after the Cancun fiasco of September 2003, must address some major development issues in the spirit of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA), if they are to make any headway. This will, predictably, involve some sensible give-and-take not only between the developed countries and the LDC's, but also amongst the LDC's themselves, and between them and other developing countries. Issues of restrictions affecting agricultural trade - a major factor in the failure at Cancun - need re-addressing; but non-agricultural trade issues must also feature in the negotiations as that could make some acceptable policy compromises possible. This paper investigates, in a computable-general-equilibrium (CGE) framework, the welfare impacts on selected developed and developing country groupings of several scenarios of trade liberalisation that are likely to enhance agricultural and non-agricultural trade flows within the LDC's, and between them and other developing countries. The scenarios will involve experimentation with selected commodities that are of special export interest to LDC's to identify some modalities of trade liberalisation and policy reciprocity, that are more likely to be acceptable to all parties.International Relations/Trade,