On the Super-Additivity and Estimation Biases of Quantile Contributions

Sample measures of top centile contributions to the total (concentration) are downward biased, unstable estimators, extremely sensitive to sample size and concave in accounting for large deviations. It makes them particularly unfit in domains with power law tails, especially for low values of the exponent. These estimators can vary over time and increase with the population size, as shown in this article, thus providing the illusion of structural changes in concentration. They are also inconsistent under aggregation and mixing distributions, as the weighted average of concentration measures for A and B will tend to be lower than that from A U B. In addition, it can be shown that under such fat tails, increases in the total sum need to be accompanied by increased sample size of the concentration measurement. We examine the estimation superadditivity and bias under homogeneous and mixed distributions

The Future Has Thicker Tails than the Past: Model Error As Branching Counterfactuals

Abstract Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. We reapply measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors of the estimation errors of an estimation treated as branching counterfactuals. Such recursions of epistemic uncertainty have markedly different distributial properties from conventional sampling error, and lead to fatter tails in the projections than in past realizations. Counterfactuals of error rates always lead to fat tails, regardless of the probability distribution used. A mere .01% branching error rate about the STD (itself an error rate), and .01% branching error rate about that error rate, etc. (recursing all the way) results in explosive (and infinite) moments higher than 1. Missing any degree of regress leads to the underestimation of small probabilities and concave payoffs (a standard example of which is Fukushima). The paper states the conditions under which higher order rates of uncertainty (expressed in spreads of counterfactuals) alters the shapes the of final distribution and shows which a priori beliefs about conterfactuals are needed to accept the reliability of conventional probabilistic methods (thin tails or mildly fat tails)

Channeling in direct dark matter detection I: channeling fraction in NaI (Tl) crystals

The channeling of the ion recoiling after a collision with a WIMP changes the ionization signal in direct detection experiments, producing a larger signal than otherwise expected. We give estimates of the fraction of channeled recoiling ions in NaI (Tl) crystals using analytic models produced since the 1960's and 70's to describe channeling and blocking effects. We find that the channeling fraction of recoiling lattice nuclei is smaller than that of ions that are injected into the crystal and that it is strongly temperature dependent.Comment: 37 pages, 35 figures, Accepted for publication in JCAP on 27 October 2010, Minor revisions: added an appendix, updated references, updated Fig. 9, corrected a few typo

Channeling Effects in Direct Dark Matter Detectors

The channeling of the ion recoiling after a collision with a WIMP changes the ionization signal in direct detection experiments, producing a larger signal than otherwise expected. We give estimates of the fraction of channeled recoiling ions in NaI (Tl), Si and Ge crystals using analytic models produced since the 1960's and 70's to describe channeling and blocking effects. We find that the channeling fraction of recoiling lattice nuclei is smaller than that of ions that are injected into the crystal and that it is strongly temperature dependent.Comment: 8 pages, 12 figures, To appear in the Proceedings of the sixth International Workshop on the Dark Side of the Universe (DSU2010) Leon, Guanajuato, Mexico 1-6 June 201

Quantitative errors in the Cochrane review on "Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses"

The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the urgency to understand and prevent pathogen transmission, specifically regarding infectious airborne particles. Extensive studies validate the understanding of larger (droplets) and smaller (aerosols) particles in disease transmission. Similarly, N95 respirators, and other forms of respiratory protection, have proven efficacy in reducing the risk of infection across various environments. Even though multiple studies confirm their protective effect when adopted in healthcare and public settings for infection prevention, studies on their adoption over the last several decades in both clinical trials and observational studies have not provided as clear an understanding. Here we show that the standard analytical equations used in the analysis of these studies do not accurately represent the random variables impacting study results. By correcting these equations, it is demonstrated that conclusions drawn from these studies are heavily biased and uncertain, providing little useful information. Despite these limitations, we show that when outcome measures are properly analyzed, existing results consistently point to the benefit of N95 respirators over medical masks, and masking over its absence. Correcting errors in widely reported meta-analyses also yields statistically significant estimates. These findings have important implications for study design and using existing evidence for infection control policy guidelines.Comment: 23 pages, 8 figure

Morphological characterization of indigenous goats in the region of laghouat in algeria

peer reviewe

Deportation Stigma and Re-migration

Many, if not most, of those who are forcibly expelled from the country to which they have migrated will not settle in the country to which they have been returned but will leave again. A recent article examined some of the reasons why this should be so. It was argued that in addition to the factors that had caused the original migration, such as fear of persecution, continuing conflict, insecurity, poverty and lack of opportunity, deportation creates at least three additional reasons that make re-migration the most likely outcome. These were debt, family commitments and the shame of failure and or ‘contamination’ leading to stigmatisation. In this article, we explore the stigma of failure and of contamination attached to those deported, and the ways in which they respond to and manage this stigmatisation, including by re-migrating. We use Goffman's concept of stigma and the refinement offered by to further nuance understanding of the impact of deportation

Characterization of the Hamra sheep breed in western Algeria

editorial reviewedThe present work is a part of a National Research Project (PNR Algeria 2022) dedicated to the development of the Hamra sheep breed in his cradle western Algeria. The aim of this study is to characterize the morphology, growth and reproductive performance of this ovine breed. A sample of 15 rams and 30 ewes were used for the morphological characterization versus a total of 1,328 head for the growth and reproduction performance carried out at the technical livestock institute in Saida area located in the western Algeria. Hamra sheep breed is small compared to other Algerian breeds. It has a dark brown (mahogany) head and legs, a blackish-blue tongue, white wool, spiral horns, and a fine, medium-length tail. Total body length is 124.5 cm for males and 110.5 cm for females, with a trunk length of 78.6 cm for males and 67.7 cm for females. Depth, width and circumference of chest are respectively 40.3 cm; 30 cm; 116.4 cm for males, and 34.2 cm; 22 cm; 99.8 cm for females. Growth monitoring showed an average birth weight of 3 to 3.6kg, depending on sex (male or female) and litter size (single or double). Live weights reached an average of 17.9kg for males and 16.2kg for females at 90th day of age. The ewes' reproductive performances are as follows: 82.2% for fertility, 97% for fecundity and 118% for prolificacy at birth and weaning. In conclusion, the Hamra breed has shown promise performances in terms of growth, but its butchering potential needs more assessments. Further studies are required to establish a conservation strategy becoming urgent by the uncontrolled introduction of genetics from other sheep breeds.PNR- Algérie12. Responsible consumption and productio