A statistical model for stock assessment of southern bluefin tuna with temporal changes in selectivity

Assessment of the status of southern bluefin tuna (SBT) by Australia and Japan has used a method (ADAPT) that imposes a number of structural restrictions, and is similar to methods used for a number of stocks world-wide. A flexible method for assessment of the SBT population is presented that is much less restrictive and has potentially wide applicability. The three key features are: (1) all fitting to data is within the context of maximum likelihood, (2) catch-at-age data are not assumed to be without error (as in existing methods), but rather to be random variables, while age-specific selectivity is allowed to change over time within the bounds of specific structure, and (3) autocorrelation in recruitment processes is considered within the likelihood framework of the model. While the results suggest the stock has been depleted considerably from its virgin biomass, and are generally consistent with previous assessments, they also indicate that it is not as much below the biomass that will produce maximum suitable yield as previously estimated and that the extent of stock rebuilding necessary may not be as large as has been argued. The available data are shown to provide little information on the steepness parameter of the stock-recruitment function, and hence on sustainable catch levels for the stock

Reference points for predators will progress ecosystem-based management of fisheries.

Ecosystem-based management of fisheries aims to allow sustainable use of fished stocks while keeping impacts upon ecosystems within safe ecological limits. Both the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries and the Aichi Biodiversity Targets promote these aims. We evaluate implementation of ecosystem-based management in six case study fisheries in which potential indirect impacts upon bird or mammal predators of fished stocks are well publicized and well studied. In particular we consider the components needed to enable management strategies to respond to information from predator monitoring. Although such information is available in all case studies, only one has a reference point defining safe ecological limits for predators and none has a method to adjust fishing activities in response to estimates of the state of the predator population. Reference points for predators have been developed outside the fisheries management context but adoption by fisheries managers is hindered a lack of clarity about management objectives and uncertainty about how fishing affects predator dynamics. This also hinders the development of adjustment methods because these generally require information on the state of ecosystem variables relative to reference points. Nonetheless, most of the case studies 58 include precautionary measures to limit impacts on predators. These measures are not used tactically and therefore risk excessive restrictions on sustainable use. Adoption of predator reference points to inform tactical adjustment of precautionary measures would be an appropriate next step towards ecosystem-based management