Historical Diffusion of Mobile Phones and Its Impact on Energy Demand: Findings and Outlook

Few technologies in history have diffused as intensively and fast as mobile phones, changing the way people interact in society in a matter of years. Rapid spatial diffusion has been another feature of the growth, improving communication in low income countries and raising the life standards of the poor. While demand already shows signs of saturation in developed countries, the potential for growth remains important in other countries. Impacts on energy consumption are assessed by combining the inputs from a real field measurement with an estimated demand from a logistic model. Even though the energy consumed in phone charging is not very significant (6-8 TWh), this demand can be substantially higher when the infrastructure needs and the large capacity of new smartphones are included. Finally, it is shown that the capacity produced of cellular phones reached a level that is comparable to the scale of diffusion of supply energy technologies with similar rates of diffusio

New Evidence in Technology Scaling Dynamics and the Role of the Formative Phase

This paper presents the latest update for historical scaling dynamics research including new technoloies such as general purpose technologies (e.g., steam engines) and small end-use technologies (e.g.,cellphones, e-bikes). Scaling refers to technology growth that is rapid and extensive, occurring at different levels, both unit and industry. It also studies the importance of the formative phase in the historical diffusion of energy technologies. So, what are the characteristics of the formative phase in the case of fast and intense adoptions? What is the infuence of the formative phase in the overall diffusion? Empirical analysis uses logistic models to exlore the growth of energy technologies observed historically. The formative phase is defined here as the early stage of diffusion before technology up-scales at unit level; the operational critera adoped is that formative phase ends when diffusion reaches 10% of cumulative total unit numbers. The hisorical evidence confirms that larger transitions require more time for experimentation and maturation in the formative periods, especially in the case of complex innovations with high infrastrcture needs. In addition, small size technologies with high turnover rates present the fastest diffusion. Moreresearch is needed to refine the definition of the moment when the technology completes the formativ phase and acquires enough maturity to pass on to mass-commercialization. KEYWRODS: technological change; innovation; economies of scale; logistic growth; formative phase

Electrical Transition in Transport: Extent, Causes and Prospects for Diffusion of Electric Bicycles in China

What is the extent of diffusion of electric bicycles in China and the prospects for the future? What were the causes for that growth and the environmental impacts? Recently, electric bicycles have been an enormously successful in China, selling dozens of million units per year after a couple of year. Its installed capacity is so important that is consistent with the historical scaling dynamics observed in energy-supply technologies. Cost reductions and technology improvement, as well as income increase and air pollution in the cities helped to boost demand for those bicycles. The logistic model is used to understand the dynamics of diffusion. It was found that e-bicycles still have potential for diffusion in China and elsewhere, although the saturation level remains uncertain. At the regional level -bikes could replace bicycles in the market. However, the increase of emissions in electricity generation especially when the majority of it comes from coal mitigates the benefits of e-bikes in terms of cheap and efficient mobility. Finally, the rapid diffusion of such a small, simple and affordable technology gives an important lesson for the diffusion of low-carbon innovations in the future

Investment in the infrastructure for hydrogen passenger cars – New hype or reality?

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have the potential to address both the environmental and oil dependency problems in transportation, but the construction of an infrastructure is a major issue that remains to be solved. This chapter reviews the challenges raised by the investment in infrastructure after the previous “hype” about hydrogen. The chapter analyzes the main obstacles posed by the establishment of a network of refueling stations and examines the strategies that have been followed by countries to deal with these barriers; in particular, in California, Japan, and Germany, where experience has shown how important cooperation is between actors (e.g., automakers, fuel suppliers, technology providers), as well as the support from public authorities to the installation of the early infrastructures. This analysis unveils not only the characteristics of the “revival” of an innovation after the disappointment, but also the strategies that have been followed to again gain visibility and come back to create the car of the future.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Calling for Change? Innovation, diffusion, and the energy impacts of global mobile telephony

Few technologies in history diffused as intensively and fast as mobile phones, to the point where they have become the most democratic technology. The article analyzes historical patterns of mobile phone growth and their effects in energy needs. Through an empirical analysis employing diffusion models on data for 227 countries between 1980 and 2010, it is concluded that global demand may saturate at around one subscription per person and the diffusion of mobile-broadband connection has contributed to sustain growth. Demand has already showed signs of saturation in developed countries, while there is still potential for growth in developing countries. Impacts on energy consumption are assessed with the help of a field trial. Even though the energy consumed in phone charging was not very significant (6-8TWh) in 2010, it becomes substantially higher when infrastructural needs are included (93TWh). The actual trends suggest that mobile communication might have a sizeable direct effect on energy consumption—although the net impact on energy demand is more difficult to estimate. This can become an issue in developing countries, where the adoption of mobile phones is catching-up rapidly with the world average, in a context of generalized increasing electricity demand

Formative Phase Lengths for a Sample of Energy Technologies Using a Diverse Set of Indicators

The objective of this research is to identify historical patterns in the formative phase of energy technologies. This period designates the early stage of development (i.e., between the invention and the up-scaling phase) that sets up the conditions for the technology to emerge and prepare for widespread growth. This investigation aims to develop an operational definition of formative phase to enable comparative technology analysis. A review of the literature, particularly the technological innovation system one, reveals a set of formative processes which are then connected to a common set of indicators for characterizing the development of new technologies. The results show that "2.5% market potential" is a good metric of the completion of the formative phase as early demand helps to reduce uncertainties (technology, market and institutions) and improve performances. This phase is often long, taking at least a decade in the more optimistic estimates. It can be shortened in the case of less disruptive innovations or by a simultaneous promotion of technology supply and demand

WMAP Constraints on a Quintessence Model

We use the results from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) for the locations of peaks and troughs of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) power spectrum, together with constraints from large-scale structure, to study a quintessence model in which the pure exponential potential is modified by a polynomial factor. Our analysis, in the $(\Omega_m, h, n_s)$ cosmological parameters space shows that this quintessence model is favoured compared to $\Lambda$CDM for $n_s\approx 1$ and relatively high values of early quintessence; for $n_s<1$, quintessence and $\Lambda$CDM give similar results, except for high values of early quintessence, in which case $\Lambda$CDM is favoured.Comment: 3 pages. Talk presented by N. M. C. Santos at the Tenth Marcel Grossmann Meeting on General Relativity, Rio de Janeiro, July 200

Legitimation and guidance in scaling up energy innovation systems

This paper examines the role of legitimacy and guidance in accelerating the take-off of emerging low-carbon innovations. We analyze the national roadmaps that have been developed for offshore wind energy in deep waters (more than 50 meters deep) which strives to enlarge the scale of the technology and market. The analysis focus on how actors create and share collective visions to prepare the growth of the system. The results point to different types of guidance depending on the technological and institutional context, particularly a higher external openness as technology matures and governments get involved. A survey of actors’ opinion complements the roadmaps analysis revealing the tendency for over inflating expectations. It suggests roadmaps have had a positive, though limited, impact on the technology development. Policy implications include recommendations for managing the process of formation of visions of new technologies entering into upscaling.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio