Is information enough? User responses to seasonal climate forecasts in Southern Africa

Since the mid-1980s, long-lead climate forecasts have been developed and used to predict the onset of El Niño events and their impact on climate variability. Advances in the observational and theoretical understanding of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have contributed to improved seasonal forecasts, with lead times of up to one year. As the ability to forecast climate variability improves, the potential social and economic applications of forecasts have become an issue of great interest. There is widespread optimism that the availability and dissemination of climate forecasts can provide much-needed information that will inevitably reduce the losses and damages attributed to climate variability. However, this study indicates that it is not only the availability of information that matters, but also the end-users capacity to act upon it. This report discusses user responses to seasonal climate forecasts in southern Africa, with an emphasis on small-scale farmers in Namibia and Tanzania. The study examines if and how farmers received, used, and perceived the forecasts in the 1997/98 agricultural season. The report also includes a summary of a workshop on user responses to seasonal forecasts in southern Africa, organized as part of the larger project. The participants in this workshop discussed some of the bottlenecks and constraints in terms of both forecast dissemination and user responses in various branches of the agricultural sector. A comparison of case studies across southern Africa revealed that there were differences in both dissemination strategies and in the capacity to respond to extreme events. Nevertheless, it was clear that improvements in forecast dissemination coupled with improved capacity to respond to the forecasts could yield net benefits for agricultural production in southern Africa. Case studies in Namibia and Tanzania were undertaken to capture the extent to which seasonal forecasts reached “end users” in the agricultural sector. The responses indicate both the possibilities and limitations related to climate forecasts as a means of reducing rural vulnerability to climate variability. Interviews were also conducted with national and regional agricultural and food security institutions in Namibia, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. Institutions included government agencies, farmer organizations, research institutions, and private companies. Participation in two of the three SARCOF meetings held during the 1997/98 season provided insight into forecast development and dissemination, as well as into the emerging dialog between forecasters and users. The surveys revealed two main trends. First, there is a need to expand dissemination. Second, there is a pressing need to improve capacity for using the forecasts. In terms of dissemination, the surveys showed that less than half of the small-scale farmers interviewed actually received the pre-season forecasts, and fewer heard the mid-season updates. Moreover, what forecasts were received were often confused with other reports stemming from the coincidental occurrence of a very strong El Niño phenomenon. One reason so few small-scale farmers received the forecasts is that they have not been directly targeted as end-users. While dissemination efforts have clearly been inadequate, they do not appear to be as consequential as problems related to the capacity of small-scale farmers to respond to the forecasts. Unless farmers have the ability to correctly interpret the forecasts, and the capacity to take action based upon the information, the forecasts will remain underutilized. Constraints to the capacity to respond to climate forecasts lie in economic and social structures, rather than uniquely in a lack of information. Access to credit, seeds, fertilizers, draft power, and markets shapes the ability of farmers to respond to climate information. In the wake of the 1997/98 El Niño event, there is a need to critically reflect upon the potential benefits of seasonal climate forecasts. Responses to present-day climate variability form the cornerstone for adapting to future climate changes. In anticipation of potential changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of extreme events associated with global climate change, there is clearly a need for improved seasonal forecasts and better information dissemination. Nevertheless, the results of this study caution against a misplaced emphasis on improving the accuracy of forecasts at the expense of increasing the flexibility of farmers to adapt. Instead, the provision of information must be tied to enhanced response or adaptation options. Climate forecasts have the potential to increase food security in southern Africa. However, to realize the full extent of potential benefits, response strategies should be strategically developed alongside dissemination strategies targeted at small-scale farmers. Moreover, this study points to a need to examine how economic changes taking place in southern Africa enhance or constrain this flexibility. Seasonal climate forecasts can serve as more than a tool for emergency management of food aid. Addressing the economic constraints to the use of seasonal climate forecasts could place farmers in a position where they could actually act upon the information. Information alone is not enough, but combined with increased attention to response strategies, seasonal climate forecasts can serve as a valuable tool for farmers in southern Africa.Acknowledgment The authors would like to acknowledge the support and contributions of the many people who assisted us in this project. We are grateful to Arne Dalfelt of the World Bank for helping us to make this project a reality, and for supporting CICERO’s longer-term research on climate change and variability in Africa. We would also like to thank Mike Harrison, Macol Stewart and the participants in the SARCOF meetings for encouraging and facilitating this research. For the field research in Namibia, we would like to express our thanks to Luis de Pisano, Peter Hutchinson, Kintinu Sageus, Gert van Eeden, Dave Cole, Mary Seely, Chris Morry, Franz Oberprieler, John le Roux, Paul Strydom, Barbara de Bruine, Gert Grobler, Ronnie Bornman, Cobus Franken, Pieter Hugo, and the others who took the time to share their views with us on seasonal climate forecasts and their potential use in Namibia. We would also like to thank Fiina Shimaneni, Otto Kamwi, and colleagues at the Multidisciplinary Research Center at the University of Namibia for their assistance with the field surveys. We are grateful to Sylvi Endresen for helping us to coordinate this field research, and to Jürgen Hoffman for his support, assistance, and enthusiasm for the project. The fieldwork in Tanzania would not have been possible without the assistance and cooperation of colleagues at Sokoine University, including Nganga Kihupi and Winifrida Rwamugira. We are also grateful to Bahari Mumali, James Ngana, Burhani Nyenzi, Mr. Kalinga, Juvenal R.L. Kisanga, S.A. Muro, and F.E. Mahua for their generous time. In Zimbabwe, we would like to thank Leonard Unganai, Brad Garanganga, Eliot Vhurumuku, C.H. Matarira, Stephen Crawford, Saskia van Osterhout, Marufu.C. Zinyowera, Sylvester Tsikisayi, Amos Makarau, Mr. Malusalila, Amus Chitambira, Micael Negusse, Roland Keth, and Veronica Mutikana for taking time to discuss the forecasts and their implications with us. We are grateful to the participants in the Dar es Salaam Workshop on User Responses to Seasonal Forecasts in Southern Africa, for sharing their insights and contributing to a productive exchange of research findings and ideas. In addition to the authors and collaborators mentioned above, participants include Anna Bartman, Roger Blench, Louise Bohn, Tharsis Herea, Amin Bakari Iddi, Maynard Lugenja, Jennifer Phillips, Anne Thomson, and Coleen Vogel. Finally, we would like to thank Lynn Nygård, Bård Romstad, and Tone Veiby for editorial assistance with this report

Skogtiltak mot klimaendringer : oversikt og status etter fjerde partskonferanse til klimakonvensjonen

Hensikten med publikasjonen er å gi et en sammenfatning av spørsmål knyttet til tiltak i skogbruket for å motvirke globale klimaendringer. Hovedvekt er lagt på skogtiltak i klimaforhandlingene og teknisk karbonbindingspotensial. I tillegg gis det en kort gjennomgang av økonomiske, miljømessige og sosiale aspekter. Notatet er oppdatert etter fjerde partsmøte (COP4) til Klimakonvensjonen, som fant sted i Buenos Aires 2.-13. november 1998. Kyotoprotokollen fra desember 1997 åpner for at skogtiltak skal kunne brukes for å oppfylle deler av industrilandenes forpliktelser om netto reduksjoner i utslipp av klimagasser. Endelig avgjørelse når det gjelder omfang og utforming av klimatiltak i skogsektoren vil sannsynligvis falle først etter at FNs klimapanel (IPCC) har ferdigstilt sin spesialrapport, som ventes i år 2000. En annen viktig faktor er evalueringen av skogprosjekter under pilotfasen til felles gjennomføring, som avsluttes i 1999. De neste tiårene vil bli avgjørende for mange av skogområdene i verden, som også inneholder en stor del av det biologiske mangfoldet på kloden. Dette gjelder i første rekke tropiske skoger, men også urørte områder i tempererte og boreale strøk møter ulike typer trusler, inkludert effekter av en mulig global oppvarming. En hovedkonklusjon er at til tross for mange og komplekse utfordringer, synes klimatiltak i skogbruket å kunne spille en konstruktiv rolle både når det gjelder å motvirke globale klimaendringer og å forbedre forvaltningen av verdens skogressurser

Muligheter og betingelser for felles gjennomføring etter Kyoto

Denne rapporten vurderer konsekvensene av Kyoto-protokollen for prosjekter om såkalt felles gjennomføring (FG, på engelsk: Joint Implementation – JI). Dette er prosjekter der aktører fra ett land finansierer tiltak som gir reduserte utslipp av klimagasser i et annet land (vertslandet). Investoren kan bruke den oppnådde reduksjonen (den såkalte "kreditt") for å oppfylle sin klimaforpliktelse. I Kyoto-protokollen åpnes det for at disse reduksjonene kan godskrives klimaregnskapet til landet som finansierer prosjektet. Denne rapporten presenterer kort noen forskjellige hovedtyper av slike prosjekter, gir et overblikk over dagens priser på FG-prosjekter og de viktigste kategorier av vertsland. Rapporten bestreber seg på å gi et totalbilde av FG og rammeverket rundt FG. Det har ikke vært formålet å foreta en detaljert utredning av enkeltprosjekter. FG-prosjekter er kort beskrevet bare i de tilfeller hvor tilstrekkelig informasjon har vært tilgjengelig og hvor prosjektene synes representative og interessante. Rapporten bygger på materiale som er laget på oppdrag for Industrikraft Midt-Norge

Reforestation and climate change mitigation : a background study for joint implementation in China and Indonesia

This paper discusses the importance of institutional barriers in promoting reforestation as a means of mitigating global climate change. It is argued that cost-effective implementation of reforestation depends on proper institutional settings in host countries. The study is motivated by the growing interest for reforestation projects in developing countries through the Joint Implementation (JI) mechanism. Particular emphasis is given to the role of property rights. The relationship between various stakeholders, such as governments, NGOs, the private sector, and international aid agencies is analyzed. Discussed aspects include conflicts among stakeholders, long-term security or stability of property rights regimes, distribution of property rights, and information exchange. The forest situation in China and Indonesia is used as an illustrative example. The study outlines a number of conflicts in the property rights regime which need a better understanding. Important questions for further research include: (1) What are the underlying conditions that affect the design and implementation of reforestation programs? (2) Who are the main actors involved in forest management, and which are their respective roles and motivations? (3) To what extent and in what ways do property rights affect the cost-effectiveness of reforestation efforts? (4) What policy instruments can be developed or improved to facilitate reforestation programs? and (5) What are the relevant institutional frameworks and/or arrangements to be used in JI for reforestation programs? What institutional changes would be brought up through such programs

Climate change and environmental assessments: Issues in an African perspective

The present study discusses the potential for integrating climate change issues into environmental assessments (EAs) of development actions, with emphasis on sub-Sahara Africa. The study is motivated by the fact that future climate change could give significant adverse impacts on the natural and socio-economic environment in Africa. Yet, global change issues – including climate change – have to date largely been overlooked in the process of improving EA procedures and methodologies. The study argues that even though emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in Africa are negligible today, it is highly relevant to include this aspect in the planning of long-term development strategies. The study discusses potential areas of conflicts and synergies between climate change and development goals. The general conclusion emerging from the study is that EA per se could be an appropriate tool for addressing climate change issues, while there are still several obstacles to its practical implementation. Four priority areas are suggested for further work: (1) Environmental accounting, (2) harmonisation and standard-setting, (3) implementation, and (4) risk management

Is information enough? : user responses to seasonal climate forecasts in Southern Africa : report to the World Bank, AFTE1-ENVGC adaptation to climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa, phase II

Since the mid-1980s, long-lead climate forecasts have been developed and used to predict the onset of El Niño events and their impact on climate variability. Advances in the observational and theoretical understanding of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have contributed to improved seasonal forecasts, with lead times of up to one year. As the ability to forecast climate variability improves, the potential social and economic applications of forecasts have become an issue of great interest. There is widespread optimism that the availability and dissemination of climate forecasts can provide much-needed information that will inevitably reduce the losses and damages attributed to climate variability. However, this study indicates that it is not only the availability of information that matters, but also the end-users capacity to act upon it. This report discusses user responses to seasonal climate forecasts in southern Africa, with an emphasis on small-scale farmers in Namibia and Tanzania. The study examines if and how farmers received, used, and perceived the forecasts in the 1997/98 agricultural season. The report also includes a summary of a workshop on user responses to seasonal forecasts in southern Africa, organized as part of the larger project. The participants in this workshop discussed some of the bottlenecks and constraints in terms of both forecast dissemination and user responses in various branches of the agricultural sector. A comparison of case studies across southern Africa revealed that there were differences in both dissemination strategies and in the capacity to respond to extreme events. Nevertheless, it was clear that improvements in forecast dissemination coupled with improved capacity to respond to the forecasts could yield net benefits for agricultural production in southern Africa. Case studies in Namibia and Tanzania were undertaken to capture the extent to which seasonal forecasts reached “end users” in the agricultural sector. The responses indicate both the possibilities and limitations related to climate forecasts as a means of reducing rural vulnerability to climate variability. Interviews were also conducted with national and regional agricultural and food security institutions in Namibia, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. Institutions included government agencies, farmer organizations, research institutions, and private companies. Participation in two of the three SARCOF meetings held during the 1997/98 season provided insight into forecast development and dissemination, as well as into the emerging dialog between forecasters and users. The surveys revealed two main trends. First, there is a need to expand dissemination. Second, there is a pressing need to improve capacity for using the forecasts. In terms of dissemination, the surveys showed that less than half of the small-scale farmers interviewed actually received the pre-season forecasts, and fewer heard the mid-season updates. Moreover, what forecasts were received were often confused with other reports stemming from the coincidental occurrence of a very strong El Niño phenomenon. One reason so few small-scale farmers received the forecasts is that they have not been directly targeted as end-users. While dissemination efforts have clearly been inadequate, they do not appear to be as consequential as problems related to the capacity of small-scale farmers to respond to the forecasts. Unless farmers have the ability to correctly interpret the forecasts, and the capacity to take action based upon the information, the forecasts will remain underutilized. Constraints to the capacity to respond to climate forecasts lie in economic and social structures, rather than uniquely in a lack of information. Access to credit, seeds, fertilizers, draft power, and markets shapes the ability of farmers to respond to climate information. In the wake of the 1997/98 El Niño event, there is a need to critically reflect upon the potential benefits of seasonal climate forecasts. Responses to present-day climate variability form the cornerstone for adapting to future climate changes. In anticipation of potential changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of extreme events associated with global climate change, there is clearly a need for improved seasonal forecasts and better information dissemination. Nevertheless, the results of this study caution against a misplaced emphasis on improving the accuracy of forecasts at the expense of increasing the flexibility of farmers to adapt. Instead, the provision of information must be tied to enhanced response or adaptation options. Climate forecasts have the potential to increase food security in southern Africa. However, to realize the full extent of potential benefits, response strategies should be strategically developed alongside dissemination strategies targeted at small-scale farmers. Moreover, this study points to a need to examine how economic changes taking place in southern Africa enhance or constrain this flexibility. Seasonal climate forecasts can serve as more than a tool for emergency management of food aid. Addressing the economic constraints to the use of seasonal climate forecasts could place farmers in a position where they could actually act upon the information. Information alone is not enough, but combined with increased attention to response strategies, seasonal climate forecasts can serve as a valuable tool for farmers in southern Africa. Acknowledgment The authors would like to acknowledge the support and contributions of the many people who assisted us in this project. We are grateful to Arne Dalfelt of the World Bank for helping us to make this project a reality, and for supporting CICERO’s longer-term research on climate change and variability in Africa. We would also like to thank Mike Harrison, Macol Stewart and the participants in the SARCOF meetings for encouraging and facilitating this research. For the field research in Namibia, we would like to express our thanks to Luis de Pisano, Peter Hutchinson, Kintinu Sageus, Gert van Eeden, Dave Cole, Mary Seely, Chris Morry, Franz Oberprieler, John le Roux, Paul Strydom, Barbara de Bruine, Gert Grobler, Ronnie Bornman, Cobus Franken, Pieter Hugo, and the others who took the time to share their views with us on seasonal climate forecasts and their potential use in Namibia. We would also like to thank Fiina Shimaneni, Otto Kamwi, and colleagues at the Multidisciplinary Research Center at the University of Namibia for their assistance with the field surveys. We are grateful to Sylvi Endresen for helping us to coordinate this field research, and to Jürgen Hoffman for his support, assistance, and enthusiasm for the project. The fieldwork in Tanzania would not have been possible without the assistance and cooperation of colleagues at Sokoine University, including Nganga Kihupi and Winifrida Rwamugira. We are also grateful to Bahari Mumali, James Ngana, Burhani Nyenzi, Mr. Kalinga, Juvenal R.L. Kisanga, S.A. Muro, and F.E. Mahua for their generous time. In Zimbabwe, we would like to thank Leonard Unganai, Brad Garanganga, Eliot Vhurumuku, C.H. Matarira, Stephen Crawford, Saskia van Osterhout, Marufu.C. Zinyowera, Sylvester Tsikisayi, Amos Makarau, Mr. Malusalila, Amus Chitambira, Micael Negusse, Roland Keth, and Veronica Mutikana for taking time to discuss the forecasts and their implications with us. We are grateful to the participants in the Dar es Salaam Workshop on User Responses to Seasonal Forecasts in Southern Africa, for sharing their insights and contributing to a productive exchange of research findings and ideas. In addition to the authors and collaborators mentioned above, participants include Anna Bartman, Roger Blench, Louise Bohn, Tharsis Herea, Amin Bakari Iddi, Maynard Lugenja, Jennifer Phillips, Anne Thomson, and Coleen Vogel. Finally, we would like to thank Lynn Nygård, Bård Romstad, and Tone Veiby for editorial assistance with this report