Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies

This paper examines the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real exports of five emerging East Asian countries among themselves as well as to thirteen industrialised countries. We explicitly recognize the specificity of the exports between the emerging East Asian and industrialised countries and employ a generalized gravity model that combines a traditional long-run export demand model with gravity type variables. In the empirical analysis we use a panel comprising 25 years of quarterly data and perform unit-root and cointegration tests to verify the long-run relationship among the regression variables. The results provide strong evidence that exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the exports of emerging East Asian countries. These results are robust across different estimation techniques and do not depend on the variable chosen to proxy exchange rate uncertainty

Non-linear effect of exchange rate volatility on exports: the role of financial sector development in emerging East Asian economies

This paper empirically examines the role of financial sector development in influencing the impact of exchange rate volatility on the exports of five emerging East Asian countries - China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand - using a GMM-IV estimation method. The results indicate that the effect of exchange rate volatility on exports is conditional on the level of financial sector development. The less financially developed an economy, the more its exports are adversely affected by exchange rate volatility. In addition, a stable exchange rate seems to be a necessary condition to achieve export promotion via a currency depreciation in these economies.East Asia, exports, exchange rate volatility, financial sector development,

Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies

Abstract This paper examines the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real exports of five emerging East Asian countries among themselves as well as to 13 industrialised countries. We recognise the specificity of the exports between the emerging East Asian and industrialised countries and employ a generalised gravity model. In the empirical analysis we use a panel comprising 25 years of quarterly data and perform unit-root and cointegration tests to verify the long-run relationship among the variables. The results provide strong evidence that exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the exports of emerging East Asian countries. In addition, the results suggest that the pattern of bilateral exports is influenced by third-country variables. An increase in the price competitiveness of other emerging East Asian countries has a negative impact on a country's exports to a destination market, but the magnitude of the impact is relatively small. These results are robust across different estimation techniques and do not depend on the variable chosen to proxy exchange rate uncertainty. The results of the GMM-IV estimation also confirm the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and suggest that this negative relationship is not driven by simultaneous causality bias. Copyright 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Journal compilation 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Surviving the COVID-19 pandemic: The antecedents of success among European SMEs

We research the antecedents of relative success among SMEs in avoiding temporary or permanent closure during the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate the roles of firm-specific resources and state support policies in influencing SME fortunes, in a sizeable group of European countries covered in the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES). Using resource dependency, Varieties of Capitalism and Systems theories, we find that innovative capacities, institutional connectedness, governance and management experience were major antecedents of success across all SMEs. Significant differences in outcomes were found between SMEs operating in old and new EU member states, and non-EU countries