Tribalism as a Minimax-Regret Strategy: Evidence of Voting in the 2007 Kenyan Elections

Although many studies find that voting in Africa approximates an ethnic census in that voting is primarily along ethnic lines, hardly any of the studies have sought to explain ethnic voting following a rational choice framework. Using data of voter opinions from a survey conducted two weeks before the December 2007 Kenyan elections, we find that the expected benefits associated with a win by each of the presidential candidates varied significantly across voters from different ethnic groups. We hypothesize that decision to participate in the elections was influenced by the expected benefits as per the minimax-regret voting model. We test the predictions of this model using data of voter turnout in the December 2007 elections and find that turnout across ethnic groups varied systematically with expected benefits. The results suggest that individuals participated in the elections primarily to avoid the maximum regret should a candidate from another ethnic group win. The results therefore offer credence to the minimax regret model as proposed by Ferejohn and Fiorina (1974) and refute the Downsian expected utility model.

Human Capital Externalities and Private Returns to Education in Kenya

We use survey data of full-time workers in Kenya to analyse the effect of human capital externalities on earnings and private returns to education. The estimation results show that education human capital generally associates with positive externalities, indicating that an increase in education benefits all workers. However, the results reveal that men benefit more from women's education than women do from men's schooling. The effects of human capital externalities on private returns to schooling are shown to vary substantially between rural and urban areas and across primary and higher levels of education.

Voting in Kenya: Putting Ethnicity in Perspective

Do Kenyans vote according to ethnic identities or policy interests? Based on results from a national probability sample survey conducted in the first week of December 2007, this article shows that, while ethnic origins drive voting patterns, elections in Kenya amount to more than a mere ethnic census. We start by reviewing how Kenyans see themselves, which is mainly in non-ethnic terms. We then report on how they see others, whom they fear will organize politically along ethnic lines. People therefore vote defensively in ethnic blocs, but not exclusively. In Decem- ber 2007, they also took particular policy issues into account, including living standards, corruption and majimbo (federalism). We demonstrate that the relative weight that individuals grant to ethnic and policy voting depends in good part on how they define their group identities, with ethnics engaging in identity voting and non-ethnics giving more weight to interests and issues

Determinants of Poverty in Kenya: A Household Level Analysis

Strategies aimed at poverty reduction need to identify factors that are strongly associated with poverty and that are amenable to modification by policy. This article uses household level data collected in 1994 to examine probable determinants of poverty status, employing both binomial and polychotomous logit models. The study shows that poverty status is strongly associated with the level of education, household size and engagement in agricultural activity, both in rural and urban areas. In general, those factors that are closely associated with overall poverty according to the binomial model are also important in the ordered-logit model, but they appear to be even more important in tackling extreme poverty

The Impact of Unionization on the Entry of Firms: Evidence from US Industries

Traditional models of entry-deterrence typically emphasize sunk costs or predatory pricing, but unionization might also discourage potential entrants. This paper explores this possibility through an empirical model of entry that includes unionization as an explanatory variable. We find that unionization has a statistically significant entry-deterring effect

Achieving Universal Primary Education: Can Kenya Afford it?

Kenya has experienced a rapid expansion of the education system partly due to high government expenditure on education. Despite the high level of expenditure on education, primary school enrolment has been declining since early 1990s and until 2003 when gross primary school enrolment increased to 104 percent after the introduction of free primary education. However, with an estimated net primary school enrolment rate of 77 percent, the country is far from achieving universal primary education. The worrying scenario is that the allocations of resources within the education sector seems to be ineffective as the increasing expenditure on education goes to recurrent expenditure (to pay teachers salaries). Kenya\u27s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) and the Economic Recovery Strategy for wealth and Employment Creation (ERS) outlines education targets of reaching universal primary education by 2015. The Government is faced with budget constrains and therefore the available resources need to be allocated efficiently in order to realize the education targets. The paper uses Budget Negotiation Framework (BNF) to analyze the cost effective ways of resource allocation in the primary education sector to achieve universal primary education and other education targets. Budget Negotiation Framework is a tool that aims at achieving equity and efficiency in resource allocation. Results from the analysis shows that universal primary education by the year 2015 is a feasible target for Kenya. The results also show that with a more cost- effective spending of education resources - increased trained teachers, enhanced textbook supplies and subsidies targeting the poor - the country could realize higher enrolment rates than what has been achieved with free primary education

South Sudan's Capability Trap: Building a State with Disruptive Innovation

The prevailing aid orthodoxy works well enough in stable environments, but is ill-equipped to navigate contexts of volatility and fragility. The orthodox approach is adept at solving straightforward technical or logistical problems (paving roads, building schools, immunizing children), but often struggles or outright fails when faced with complex, adaptive challenges (fighting corruption, upholding the rule of law, establishing democratic institutions). South Sudan, the world's newest country, presents a post-conflict environment full of complex, adaptive challenges. Prior to the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005 South Sudan had no formal institutions of self-governance. During the Comprehensive Peace Agreement period and after independence in 2011, foreign development agencies have contributed billions of dollars of aid and technical assistance to 'build capacity' in the nascent Government of South Sudan. The donors utilized approaches and mechanisms of support that at least nominally reflect the prevailing aid orthodoxy. We argue that orthodox state-building and capacity building more or less failed in South Sudan, leaving the world's newest country mired in a 'capability trap' (Andrews et al. 2012). Despite countless trainings, workshops, reforms, and a large corps of foreign technical assistants embedded within state ministries, there is an absence of real change, and the Government of South Sudan now 'looks like a state' but performs as anything but. The challenges presented by this new, complicated, post-conflict country demand innovative approaches to building state capability which go beyond importing 'best practice' solutions while feigning 'client ownership'. We explore one such approach to disruptive innovation that has emerged: Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation. To escape from the world's newest capability trap, South Sudan's government and its international donors must challenge themselves to imagine innovative paths to state-building, which diverge from 'business as usual' and attempt to create something that lasts

Change-of-state Paradigms and the middle in Kinyarwanda

This paper investigates the derivational relationships among members of verbal paradigms in Kinyarwanda (Bantu JD.61; Rwanda) by pursuing two interrelated goals. First, I describe a variety of derivational strategies for marking transitive and intransitive variants in change-of-state verb paradigms. Second, I focus on the detransitivizing morpheme –ik which serves as one possible marking for intransitive members of these paradigms. Ultimately, I argue that this morpheme is a marker of middle voice, and the variety of readings which appear with this form can be subsumed under a single operation of argument suppression. Finally, I provide a discussion of reflexives and the apparent lack of a reflexive reading with –ik by arguing that this reading is blocked by either lexical reflexives or the reflexive prefix i–