The predictability of asset returns in the BRICS countries: a nonparametric approach

One of the earliest and most enduring questions of financial econometrics is the predictability of financial asset prices. In this article, stock market data from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are used to assess the out-of-sample performance of the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and Non-parametric kernel (Epanechnikov) regression models. The results reveal that the non-parametric kernel regression model outperforms its parametric rival based on the predicted mean square error (PMSE), Diebold-Mariano criterion, Mean-Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Variance statistics. These results confirm those found previously by other researchers whereby non-parametric forecasting models outperform parametric models in the short-term forecasting horizon

The predictability of asset returns in the BRICS countries: a nonparametric approach

One of the earliest and most enduring questions of financial econometrics is the predictability of financial asset prices. In this article, stock market data from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are used to assess the out-of-sample performance of the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and Non-parametric kernel (Epanechnikov) regression models. The results reveal that the non-parametric kernel regression model outperforms its parametric rival based on the predicted mean square error (PMSE), Diebold-Mariano criterion, Mean-Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Variance statistics. These results confirm those found previously by other researchers whereby non-parametric forecasting models outperform parametric models in the short-term forecasting horizon

Metabolic syndrome among treatment-naïve people living with and without HIV in Zambia and Zimbabwe: a cross-sectional analysis.

INTRODUCTION Chronic viral replication has been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases in people living with HIV (PLWH), but few studies have evaluated this association in Southern Africa. We explored the determinants of metabolic syndrome (MetS) among treatment-naïve adults living with and without HIV in Southern Africa. METHODS Treatment-naïve PLWH and people living without HIV (PLWOH) ≥30 years were consecutively enrolled from primary care clinics in Zambia and Zimbabwe. PLWOH were seronegative partners or persons presenting for HIV testing. We defined MetS as the presence of central obesity plus any two of the following: raised blood pressure, impaired fasting glucose, reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and raised triglycerides, as defined by the International Diabetes Federation. We used logistic regression to determine factors associated with MetS. RESULTS Between August 2019 and March 2022, we screened 1285 adults and enrolled 420 (47%) PLWH and 481 (53%) PLWOH. The median age was similar between PLWH and PLWOH (40 vs. 38 years, p < 0.24). In PLWH, the median CD4+ count was 228 cells/mm3 (IQR 108-412) and the viral load was 24,114 copies/ml (IQR 277-214,271). Central obesity was present in 365/523 (70%) females and 57/378 males (15%). MetS was diagnosed in 172/901 (19%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 17-22%), and prevalence was higher among females than males (27% vs. 9%). In multivariable analyses, HIV status was not associated with MetS (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.05, 95% CI 0.74-1.51). Risk factors for MetS included age older than 50 years (aOR 2.31, 95% CI 1.49-3.59), female sex (aOR 3.47, 95% CI 2.15-5.60), highest income (aOR 2.19, 95% CI 1.39-3.44) and less than World Health Organization recommended weekly physical activity (aOR 3.35, 95% CI 1.41-7.96). CONCLUSIONS We report a high prevalence of MetS and central obesity among females in urban Zambia and Zimbabwe. Lifestyle factors and older age appear to be the strongest predictors of MetS in our population, with no evident difference in MetS prevalence between treatment-naïve PLWH and PLWOH

Inclusive climate resilient transport challenges in Africa

Delivering sustainable and inclusive low-carbon transport is a critical to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Yet transport infrastructure is vulnerable to the effects of climate change in low-income countries in Africa. This paper explores the status of inclusive mobility and climate-resilient transportation in Africa, focusing on the perceptions and importance amongst key stakeholders, their incorporation into existing practices, and the priority given to making transport more inclusive and climate resilient. A nested scale approach was used that included an online continental survey of 136 respondents from 17 African countries; 2 country-level Focus Group Discussions in Uganda and Zambia; and city-level semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders in Lusaka and Kampala using the Delphi method. In addition, an online spatial questionnaire (Maptionnaire) was used to locate where infrastructure improvements were needed, and two city workshops held in Lusaka and Kampala. Providing more active travel infrastructure was a priority for both government and non-governmental groups. This is not connected to climate resilience but to immediate priorities of road safety and health. Our surveys highlighted that climate resilience and inclusive mobility policies are in place, but poor implementation and lack of transparency were undermining outcomes. Upgrading existing infrastructure was more cost-effective and workable than developing new robust alternatives. Lack of knowledge exchange was limiting agencies efforts to tackle this growing challenge. The paper underscores the need to raise awareness of relevant options to improve the climate resilience of transport infrastructure and expand accessible mobility solutions to tackle issues of inclusion and equity in African cities

Mitigating the effects of COVID-19 on HIV treatment and care in Lusaka, Zambia: A before-after cohort study using mixed effects regression

INTRODUCTION: The Zambian Ministry of Health (MoH) issued COVID-19 mitigation guidance for HIV care immediately after the first COVID-19 case was confirmed in Zambia on 18 March 2020. The Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia implemented MoH guidance by: 1) extending antiretroviral therapy (ART) refill duration to 6 multi-month dispensation (6MMD) and 2) task-shifting communication and mobilisation of those in HIV care to collect their next ART refill early. We assessed the impact of COVID-19 mitigation guidance on HIV care 3 months before and after guidance implementation. METHODS: We reviewed all ART pharmacy visit data in the national HIV medical record for PLHIV in care having ≥1 visit between 1 January-30 June 2020 at 59 HIV care facilities in Lusaka Province, Zambia. We undertook a before-after evaluation using mixed-effects Poisson regression to examine predictors and marginal probability of early clinic return (pharmacy visit \u3e7 days before next appointment), proportion of late visit (\u3e7 days late for next appointment) and probability of receiving a 6MMD ART refill. RESULTS: A total of 101 371 individuals (64% female, median age 39) with 130 486 pharmacy visits were included in the analysis. We observed a significant increase in the adjusted prevalence ratio (4.63; 95% CI 4.45 to 4.82) of early return before compared with after guidance implementation. Receipt of 6MMD increased from a weekly mean of 47.9% (95% CI 46.6% to 49.2%) before to 73.4% (95% CI 72.0% to 74.9%) after guidance implementation. The proportion of late visits (8-89 days late) was significantly higher before (18.8%, 95% CI17.2%to20.2%) compared with after (15.1%, 95% CI13.8%to16.4%) guidance implementation . CONCLUSIONS: Timely issuance and implementation of COVID-19 mitigation guidance involving task-shifted patient communication and mobilisation alongside 6MMD significantly increased early return to ART clinic, potentially reducing interruptions in HIV care during a global public health emergency

Implementing SLMTA in the Kenya National Blood Transfusion Service: lessons learned

Background: The Kenya National Blood Transfusion Service (KNBTS) is mandated to provide safe and sufficient blood and blood components for the country. In 2013, the KNBTS National Testing Laboratory and the six regional blood transfusion centres were enrolled in the Strengthening Laboratory Management Toward Accreditation (SLMTA) programme. The process was supported by Global Communities with funding from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Methods: The SLMTA implementation at KNBTS followed the standard three-workshop series, on-site mentorships and audits. Baseline, midterm and exit audits were conducted at the seven facilities, using a standard checklist to measure progress. Given that SLMTA was designed for clinical and public health laboratories, key stakeholders, guided by Global Communities, tailored SLMTA materials to address blood transfusion services, and oriented trainers, auditors and mentors on the same. Results: The seven facilities moved from an average of zero stars at baseline to an average of three stars at the exit audit. The average baseline audit score was 38% (97 points), midterm 71% (183 points) and exit audit 79% (205 points). The Occurrence Management and Process Improvement quality system essential had the largest improvement (at 67 percentage points), from baseline to exit, whereas Facilities and Safety had the smallest improvement (at 31 percentage points). Conclusion: SLMTA can be an effective tool for preparing a blood transfusion service for accreditation. Key success factors included customising SLMTA to blood transfusion activities; sensitising trainers, mentors and auditors on operations of blood transfusion service; creating SLMTA champions in key departments; and integrating other blood transfusion-specific accreditation standards into SLMTA

Guidelines for evaluating the conservation value of African lion (Panthera leo) translocations

As the top predator in African ecosystems, lions have lost more than 90% of their historical range, and few countries possess strong evidence for stable populations. Translocations (broadly defined here as the capture and movement of lions for various management purposes) have become an increasingly popular action for this species, but the wide array of lion translocation rationales and subsequent conservation challenges stemming from poorly conceived or unsuitable translocations warrants additional standardized evaluation and guidance. At their best, translocations fill a key role in comprehensive strategies aimed at addressing the threats facing lions and fostering the recovery of wild populations in their historic range. At their worst, translocations can distract from addressing the major threats to wild populations and habitats, divert scarce funding from more valuable conservation actions, exacerbate conflict with humans in recipient sites, disrupt local lion demography, and undermine the genetic integrity of wild lion populations in both source and recipient sites. In the interest of developing best practice guidelines for deciding when and how to conduct lion translocations, we discuss factors to consider when determining whether a translocation is of conservation value, introduce a value assessment for translocations, and provide a decision matrix to assist practitioners in improving the positive and reducing the negative outcomes of lion translocation.Grant from the European Union through IUCN Save Our Species, and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service.https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/conservation-scienceam2023Zoology and Entomolog

Early Diagnosis of HIV Infection in Infants - One Caribbean and Six Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2011-2015.

Pediatric human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection remains an important public health issue in resource-limited settings. In 2015, 1.4 million children aged 50% decline. The most common challenges for access to testing for early infant diagnosis included difficulties in specimen transport, long turnaround time between specimen collection and receipt of results, and limitations in supply chain management. Further reductions in HIV mortality in children can be achieved through continued expansion and improvement of services for early infant diagnosis in PEPFAR-supported countries, including initiatives targeted to reach HIV-exposed infants, ensure access to programs for early infant diagnosis of HIV, and facilitate prompt linkage to treatment for children diagnosed with HIV infection

"Being seen" at the clinic: Zambian and South African health worker reflections on the relationship between health facility spatial organisation and items and HIV stigma in 21 health facilities, the HPTN 071 (PopART) study.

Health workers in 21 government health facilities in Zambia and South Africa linked spatial organisation of HIV services and material items signifying HIV-status (for example, coloured client cards) to the risk of People Living with HIV (PLHIV) 'being seen' or identified by others. Demarcated HIV services, distinctive client flow and associated-items were considered especially distinguishing. Strategies to circumvent any resulting stigma mostly involved PLHIV avoiding and/or reducing contact with services and health workers reducing visibility of PLHIV through alterations to structures, items and systems. HIV spatial organisation and item adjustments, enacting PLHIV-friendly policies and wider stigma reduction initiatives could combined reduce risks of identification and enhance the privacy of health facility space and diminish stigma