Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate on Monetary Policy in Emerging Countries: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach in Uganda

Many money demand studies have been carried out on Uganda, however, these studies perceive and incorporate exchange rate as a linear determinant of real money demand. Indeed, exchange rate may have asymmetric effects on real money demand; with exchange rate appreciation having different effects from exchange rate depreciation. Therefore, this is the first study to estimate exchange rate asymmetries in Uganda, for the period 2008Q3 and 2018Q4. The study uses both the linear ARDL and non-linear ARDL methodologies to accomplish its goal. This is also done by incorporating an economic uncertainty index, which is critical, especially in light of the novel global coronavirus pandemic, that has disrupted trade, movement and supply chains. The error correction terms of both models are negative and significant, with the one of the non-linear ARDL twice as much as that of the linear ARDL. Indeed, the study confirms the existence of exchange rate asymmetries on Uganda’s real money demand. In the linear ARDL model, exchange rate has a positive effect in the long run but a negative result in the short run. On one hand, the non-linear ARDL model reveals that an exchange rate depreciation of the Uganda Shillings negatively affects real money demand in the short run. On the other hand, an exchange rate appreciation positively effects real money demand. Notably, economic uncertainty has insignificant effects in both models, except for its lags in the non-linear model. The implication of these findings is that macro-economic policy management in Uganda should be cognizant of these asymmetric effects of exchange rate, for effective planning, policy and implementation

A Framework for Strengthening and Sustaining Cooperatives for Socio-Economic Transformation in Uganda

The importance of cooperatives as an appropriate mechanism to address productivity challenges and drive Uganda’s economy for socio-economic transformation is commonly advanced. However, the discussion and efforts on how this should be achieved are weak. Efforts that have been undertaken by the Government, Private players, Civil Society and Development Partners have not yielded much to unlock the potential of the cooperatives in fostering development, enhancing production, productivity, and socio-economic transformation. This is attributed to weaknesses of the prerequisites necessary for the vibrancy of cooperatives namely the: culture of cooperation and trust among cooperators; legal, policy, and regulatory framework for cooperatives; cooperatives’ enabling institutions; prevailing socio-economic environment; and the political economy. This paper uses a multi-dimensional methodology that includes learning from literature; case study analysis; expert-focused interviews; field studies, and; survey questionnaire administration of various types of cooperatives. To this end, the paper defines a framework under which Uganda should strengthen and sustainably regulate its cooperative movement to unlock its potential to drive its socio-economic transformation. In particular, a novel cooperatives’ viability condition in a liberalized market is developed

Pan-African evolution of within- and between-country COVID-19 dynamics

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is heterogeneous throughout Africa and threatening millions of lives. Surveillance and short-term modeling forecasts are critical to provide timely information for decisions on control strategies. We created a strategy that helps predict the country-level case occurrences based on cases within or external to a country throughout the entire African continent, parameterized by socioeconomic and geoeconomic variations and the lagged effects of social policy and meteorological history. We observed the effect of the Human Development Index, containment policies, testing capacity, specific humidity, temperature, and landlocked status of countries on the local within-country and external between-country transmission. One-week forecasts of case numbers from the model were driven by the quality of the reported data. Seeking equitable behavioral and social interventions, balanced with coordinated country-specific strategies in infection suppression, should be a continental priority to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa