Analisis permintaan dan perkiraan kebutuhan konsumsi minyak kelapa di daerah istimewa aceh=Analysis of Demand and Estimation of Consumption Need for

ABSTRACT Coconut oil is one of the vegetable fats which is importnat for the daily consumption. At least 13 kg/person/year of coconut oil is needed. For Daerah Istimewa Aceh, in 1987, the amount of coconut oil consumed is only 9.20 Kg/person/year, which means still below the standar requirement. The amount of coconut oil consumed increases up to 5.81%/year from 197710 1987, while supply decreases to 1.93%/year. It means that the supply is not in balance with the increase of the demand Based on this view, the demand and the estimation of consumption need for coconut oil in Daerah Istimewa Aceh is intersted to be studied. The objectives of the research are to study the factors influencing the demand, the extent of the role of the above factors in determining the demand, and to estimate the consumption need in the future. Proportionate Stratified Random Sampling Methods was used in this study. The data were transformed into logarithmic forms and then analysed using Ordinary Least Square Methods. The data were Cross Section Data Result of analysis show that factors influencing the demand of coconut oil were prices of coconut oil, palm oil, fresh fish, total of house-hold income and number ofhouse-hold member. The price elasticity ofcoconut oil demand is -0.9574, it means that the demand is inelastic The cross price elasticities of palm oil and of fresh fish are 0.9611 and -0.4142 respectively. It implies that palm oil is a substitute and fresh fish is a complement for the consumption of coconut oiL The income elasticity of demand is 0,4771, it means that coconut oil is a normal goods and inelastic demand The regression coefficient of the number of the house-hold member with respect to consumption of coconut oil is 0.6461. It is also estimated that the consumption need for coconut oil from 1990 to 1995 in Daerah Istimewa Aceh will increase 3.91% per year. Based on this results, it is suggested that further efforts to increase coconut oil production should always be made in order to fulfill the increasing of consumption need and to pursue the standar determined by the Goverment: Key words: demand analysis -- consumption estimation -- coconut oi