Multivariate geometric anisotropic Cox processes

This paper introduces a new modeling and inference framework for multivariate and anisotropic point processes. Building on recent innovations in multivariate spatial statistics, we propose a new family of multivariate anisotropic random fields, and from them a family of anisotropic point processes. We give conditions that make the proposed models valid. We also propose a Palm likelihood-based inference method for this type of point process, circumventing issues of likelihood tractability. Finally we illustrate the utility of the proposed modeling framework by analyzing spatial ecological observations of plants and trees in the Barro Colorado Island data

High diversity of microplankton surrounds deep-water coral reef in the Norwegian Sea

Coral reefs that exist in the depths of the oceans are surrounded by Eukarya, Archaea and bacterial communities that may play an important role in the nutrition and health of the reef. The first interdomain community structure of planktonic organisms in seawater from a deep-water coral reef is described. Community profiling and analysis of ribosomal RNA gene sequences from a coral reef system at 350 m depth in the Norwegian Sea revealed a rich diversity of Eukarya and Bacteria and a moderate diversity of Archaea. Most sequences affiliated with marine microplankton from deep-sea to cold-surface regions, with many sequences being similar to those described in studies of mesopelagic and oxygen minimum zones. Dominant phylotypes belonged to the Alveolata (group I, II, dinoflagellates), Stramenopiles (silicoflagellates), Alphaproteobacteria (Pelagibacter ubique), Gammaproteobacteria (ARCTIC96BD-19), Bacteroidetes (Flavobacteria) and mesophilic Crenarchaeota (Nitrosopumilus maritimus). Several rare and novel members of the community fell into distinct phylogenetic groups. The inferred function of dominant community members suggested autotrophs that utilise light, ammonium or sulphide, and lifestyles based on host associations. The high diversity reflected a microplankton community structure, which is significantly different from that of microplankton collected at the same depth at a pelagic station away from reefs

Quantifying reliability and data deficiency in global vertebrate population trends using the Living Planet Index

Global biodiversity is facing a crisis, which must be solved through effective policies and on-the-ground conservation. But governments, NGOs, and scientists need reliable indicators to guide research, conservation actions, and policy decisions. Developing reliable indicators is challenging because the data underlying those tools is incomplete and biased. For example, the Living Planet Index tracks the changing status of global vertebrate biodiversity, but taxonomic, geographic and temporal gaps and biases are present in the aggregated data used to calculate trends. However, without a basis for real-world comparison, there is no way to directly assess an indicator's accuracy or reliability. Instead, a modelling approach can be used. We developed a model of trend reliability, using simulated datasets as stand-ins for the "real world", degraded samples as stand-ins for indicator datasets (e.g., the Living Planet Database), and a distance measure to quantify reliability by comparing partially sampled to fully sampled trends. The model revealed that the proportion of species represented in the database is not always indicative of trend reliability. Important factors are the number and length of time series, as well as their mean growth rates and variance in their growth rates, both within and between time series. We found that many trends in the Living Planet Index need more data to be considered reliable, particularly trends across the global south. In general, bird trends are the most reliable, while reptile and amphibian trends are most in need of additional data. We simulated three different solutions for reducing data deficiency, and found that collating existing data (where available) is the most efficient way to improve trend reliability, whereas revisiting previously studied populations is a quick and efficient way to improve trend reliability until new long-term studies can be completed and made available

A user-friendly guide to using distance measures to compare time series in ecology

Time series are a critical component of ecological analysis, used to track changes in biotic and abiotic variables. Information can be extracted from the properties of time series for tasks such as classification (e.g., assigning species to individual bird calls); clustering (e.g., clustering similar responses in population dynamics to abrupt changes in the environment or management interventions); prediction (e.g., accuracy of model predictions to original time series data); and anomaly detection (e.g., detecting possible catastrophic events from population time series). These common tasks in ecological research all rely on the notion of (dis-) similarity, which can be determined using distance measures. A plethora of distance measures have been described, predominantly in the computer and information sciences, but many have not been introduced to ecologists. Furthermore, little is known about how to select appropriate distance measures for time-series-related tasks. Therefore, many potential applications remain unexplored. Here, we describe 16 properties of distance measures that are likely to be of importance to a variety of ecological questions involving time series. We then test 42 distance measures for each property and use the results to develop an objective method to select appropriate distance measures for any task and ecological dataset. We demonstrate our selection method by applying it to a set of real-world data on breeding bird populations in the UK and discuss other potential applications for distance measures, along with associated technical issues common in ecology. Our real-world population trends exhibit a common challenge for time series comparisons: a high level of stochasticity. We demonstrate two different ways of overcoming this challenge, first by selecting distance measures with properties that make them well suited to comparing noisy time series and second by applying a smoothing algorithm before selecting appropriate distance measures. In both cases, the distance measures chosen through our selection method are not only fit-for-purpose but are consistent in their rankings of the population trends. The results of our study should lead to an improved understanding of, and greater scope for, the use of distance measures for comparing ecological time series and help us answer new ecological questions

Spectral estimation for spatial point patterns

This article determines how to implement spatial spectral analysis of point processes (in two dimensions or more), by establishing the moments of raw spectral summaries of point processes. We establish the first moments of raw direct spectral estimates such as the discrete Fourier transform of a point pattern. These have a number of surprising features that departs from the properties of raw spectral estimates of random fields and time series. As for random fields, the special case of isotropic processes warrants special attention, which we discuss. For time series and random fields white noise plays a special role, mirrored by the Poisson processes in the case of the point process. For random fields bilinear estimators are prevalent in spectral analysis. We discuss how to smooth any bilinear spectral estimator for a point process. We also determine how to taper this bilinear spectral estimator, how to calculate the periodogram, sample the wavenumbers and discuss the correlation of the periodogram. In parts this corresponds to recommending suitable separable as well as isotropic tapers in d dimensions. This, in aggregation, establishes the foundations for spectral analysis of point processes.Comment: 29 pages + 23 pages of supplements, 6 figure

Disentangling the historical routes to community assembly in the global epicentre of biodiversity

Aim: The exceptional turnover in biota with elevation and number of species coexisting at any elevation makes tropical mountains hotspots of biodiversity. However, understanding the historical processes through which species arising in geographical isolation (i.e. allopatry) assemble along the same mountain slope (i.e. sympatry) remains a major challenge. Multiple models have been proposed including (1) the sorting of already elevationally divergent species, (2) the displacement of elevation upon secondary contact, potentially followed by convergence, or (3) elevational conservatism, in which ancestral elevational ranges are retained. However, the relative contribution of these processes to generating patterns of elevational overlap and turnover is unknown. Location: Tropical mountains of Central- and South-America. Time Period: The last 12 myr. Major Taxa Studied: Birds. Methods: We collate a dataset of 165 avian sister pairs containing estimates of phylogenetic age, geographical and regional elevational range overlap. We develop a framework based on continuous-time Markov models to infer the relative frequency of different historical pathways in explaining present-day overlap and turnover of sympatric species along elevational gradients. Results: We show that turnover of closely related bird species across elevation can predominantly be explained by displacement of elevation ranges upon contact (81%) rather than elevational divergence in allopatry (19%). In contrast, overlap along elevation gradients is primarily (88%) explained by conservatism of elevational ranges rather than displacement followed by elevational expansion (12%). Main Conclusions: Bird communities across elevation gradients are assembled through a mix of processes, including the sorting, displacement and conservatism of species elevation ranges. The dominant role of conservatism in explaining co-occurrence of species on mountain slopes rejects more complex scenarios requiring displacement followed by expansion. The ability of closely related species to coexist without elevational divergence provides a direct and faster pathway to sympatry and helps explain the exceptional species richness of tropical mountains

The effects of land use disturbance vary with trophic position in littoral cichlid fish communities from Lake Tanganyika

1. Impacts of anthropogenic disturbance are especially severe in freshwater ecosystems. In particular, land use disturbance can lead to increased levels of pollution, including elevated nutrient and sediment loads whose negative impacts range from the community to the individual level. However, few studies have investigated if these impacts are uniform across species represented by multiple trophic levels. To address this knowledge gap, we focused on Lake Tanganyika cichlid fishes, which comprise hundreds of species representing a wide range of feeding strategies. Cichlids are at their most diverse within the near‐shore environment; however, land use disturbance of this environment has led to decreasing diversity, particularly in herbivores. We therefore tested if there is a uniform effect of pollution across species and trophic groups within the hyper‐diverse rocky shore cichlid fish community. 2. We selected three sites with differing levels of human impact along the Tanzanian coastline and 10 cichlid species, comprising varying taxonomic and trophic groups, common to these sites. Nitrogen and carbon stable isotope values for 528 samples were generated and analysed using generalised linear mixed models. We also estimated stomach contents including sediment proportions. 3. Our study highlights that multiple sources of pollution are having differing effects across species within a diverse fish community. We found that nitrogen stable isotope values were significantly higher at the most disturbed (urbanised) site for benthic feeding species, whereas there was no difference in these isotopes between sites for the water column feeding trophic group. Stomach contents revealed that the elevated δ15N values were unlikely to have been caused by differences in diet between sites. However, at the most disturbed site, higher proportions of sediment were present in most herbivores, irrespective of foraging behaviour. 4. It is likely that anthropogenic nitrogen loading is the cause of higher nitrogen stable isotope values since there was no evidence of species shifting trophic levels between sites. Results support our previous study showing herbivore species to be most affected by human disturbance and make the link to pollution much more explicit. As lower diversity of consumers can negatively affect ecosystem processes such as stability, alleviating environmental impact through sewage treatment and afforestation programmes should continue to be a global priority for the conservation of aquatic ecosystems, as well as human health