Effect of Climate Change on Invasion Risk of Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica Férussac, 1821: Achatinidae) in India

The Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica) is considered to be one the world’s 100 worst invasive alien species. The snail has an impact on native biodiversity, and on agricultural and horticultural crops. In India, it is known to feed on more than fifty species of native plants and agricultural crops and also outcompetes the native snails. It was introduced into India in 1847 and since then it has spread all across the country. In this paper, we use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the distribution pattern of Giant African Snail (GAS) under different climate change scenarios. The niche modeling results indicate that under the current climate scenario, Eastern India, peninsular India and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are at high risk of invasion. The three different future climate scenarios show that there is no significant change in the geographical distribution of invasion prone areas. However, certain currently invaded areas will be more prone to invasion in the future. These regions include parts of Bihar, Southern Karnataka, parts of Gujarat and Assam. The Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep Islands are highly vulnerable to invasion under changed climate. The Central Indian region is at low risk due to high temperature and low rainfall. An understanding of the invasion pattern can help in better management of this invasive species and also in formulating policies for its control

Livelihood vulnerability and adaptation in Kolar District, Karnataka, India : mapping risks and responses short report

This work was carried out under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government’s Department for International Development (DfID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.During March and April 2016, ASSAR India’s researchers from the Indian Institute for Human Settlements (IIHS) conducted 18 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) in nine villages in Kolar District, Karnataka. The FGDs were gender-differentiated and ensured representation from different income groups, castes, and religions. We undertook three activities during each FGD: - A timeline exercise to chart biophysical, livelihoods, socio-economic, institutional and political changes from 1970 onwards. - Risk and response mapping. - An institutional mapping exercise to chart key actors and flows of information and credit

Percent number of records of <i>A</i>.<i>fulica</i> invasion along the altitudinal gradient.

<p>Percent number of records of <i>A</i>.<i>fulica</i> invasion along the altitudinal gradient.</p

Environmental Data used for ENM for <i>A</i>. <i>fulica</i>.

<p>The highlighted variables were included in the model after testing for correlation between variables.</p

Relative contribution of different bioclimatic variables to MaxEnt model for <i>A</i>. <i>fulica</i>.

<p>Percent contribution values are averages over 10 replicate runs.</p

Percent difference in the area of different suitability category between RCP 4.5, RCP and 6.0 and RCP 8.0 and current scenario for <i>A</i>.<i>fulica</i>.

<p>Percent difference in the area of different suitability category between RCP 4.5, RCP and 6.0 and RCP 8.0 and current scenario for <i>A</i>.<i>fulica</i>.</p

Area with suitability scores under different climate scenarios.

<p>The percentage is given in the parenthesis. The value less the 0.10 is not given.</p

Top 10 Indian states with >0.50% probability of invasion risk from <i>A</i>. <i>fulica</i> under present and future climate change scenarios.

<p>The values in table are in percentage.</p

Pearson’s correlation between number of <i>A</i>. <i>fulica</i> records and climatic factors.

<p>*P<0.05,</p><p>**P<0.01,</p><p>df = 10</p><p>Pearson’s correlation between number of <i>A</i>. <i>fulica</i> records and climatic factors.</p

Potential distribution of <i>A</i>.<i>fulica</i> under current, and three climate change scenario (RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.0) a) for mainland India and b) Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

<p>Legend: Blue to red colour indicates unsuitable to highly suitable areas</p