Non-Linearity between Inflation Rate and GDP Growth in Malaysia

This study analyses the relationship between inflation rate and economic growth rate in the period 1970-2005 in Malaysia. A specific question that is addressed in this study is what the threshold inflation rate for Malaysia. The findings suggest that there is one inflation threshold value exist for Malaysia. This evidence strongly supports the view that the relationship between inflation rate and economic growth is nonlinear. The estimated threshold regression model suggests 3.89% as the threshold value of inflation rate above which inflation significantly retards growth rate of GDP. In addition, below the threshold level, there is statistical significant positive relationship between inflation rate and growth. Bank Negara (central bank of Malaysia) should pay attention to inflation phenomena and substantial gain can be achieved in low-inflation environment while conducting the new monetary policy.

Population growth and standard of living: A threshold regression approach

This study employs Hansen's (2000) threshold regression analysis to examine the relationship between population growth and per capita GDP in 117 countries. Threshold regression analysis allows controlling the quality of population when examining the relationship between the quantity of population and per capita income in a country. The paper uses Human Development Index (HDI) value as the threshold regression variable. In the course of the analysis, a sample of 117 countries was split twice and separated into four sub-samples. The threshold regression analysis revealed that there was a significant negative relationship between population growth and per capita GDP only in the countries with a low level of human development. In other words, quantitative expansion of population would have negative impact on standard of living only in the countries with low quality of population. The empirical findings of this paper support a proposition that the quality of population aspect should be included in the debate on the relationship between population expansion and economic development.

Is Malaysian Stock Market Efficient? Evidence from Threshold Unit Root Tests

This paper investigates the behavior of Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index (KLCI) for the period from 1980:1 to 2008:8 using a two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root developed by Caner and Hansen [Threshold autoregression with a unit roots, Econometrics 69 (6) (2001) 1555-1596] which allows testing nonlinearity and nonstationarity simultaneously. Our finding indicates that the KLCI is a nonlinear series that is characterized by a unit root process, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.Efficient Market Hypothesis, Threshold Autoregressive Model, Unit Root.

Does export dependency hurt economic development? Empirical evidence from Singapore

A rapid export growth in East Asia was once identified as a source of the sustainable economic development that the region enjoyed. However, the current global recession has turned exports from an economic virtue to a vice. There is a growing awareness that a heavy reliance on exports has caused a serious economic downturn in the region. The present paper chooses Singapore as a case study to examine the relationship between the origin of the East Asian Miracle (i.e. export dependency) and the economic growth. For this purpose, the study employs a causality test developed by Toda and Yamamoto. The empirical findings indicate that despite a negative long-run relationship between export dependency and economic growth, Singapore's heavy reliance on exports does not seem to have produced negative effects on the nation's economic growth. This is because the increase in export dependency was an effect, and not a cause, of the country's output expansion.

Corruption, size of government, and economic growth: evidence from global data

A big size government fosters corruption, which can lead to inefficiencies and resource costs that impede economic progress. In this chapter, it is argued that much of the previous studies have focused only on detecting the linear effects of corruption on growth. This study, therefore adopts the Threshold Autoregression (TAR) approach by using an annual panel data of 100 countries during 1990-2012 to evaluate any existence of a non-linear relationship. This study presents evidence that suggests the existence of a hump shaped (nonlinear) relationship between corruption and long-run economic growth. When the government size is small (11.518%), corruption positively affects economic growth. Whereas, when the government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) is larger than 19.027%, corruption negatively affects economic growth. Furthermore, the result indicates that a non-linear relationship of the 'Armey curve' exists in our panel of countries. Thus, a government should investigate whether government size is over-expanding or not when designing its public finance policy

"Phillips Curve" in selected ASEAN countries : new evidence from panel data analysis

This paper uses panel data analysis to analyse the relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate in five ASEAN countries (i.e. Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines). Since the trade-off relationship between employment and wage inflation rate in the United Kingdom was pointed out by William Phillips in 1958, this hypothesis of the ?Phillips Curve? remains an important foundation for macroeconomics. The main findings from the panel data analysis are that there is no trade-off relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate in these ASEAN countrie

Equity market informational efficiency: history and development

In economics and finance, the term ‘efficiency’ has several distinct connotations. This term can be used to refer to allocation efficiency, informational efficiency, operational efficiency or technical efficiency.1 At the outset, it is necessary to clarify that in this chapter ‘efficiency’ only refers to informational efficiency, such that prices are based on the best available information (Howell and Bain, 2005: 540). According to Latham (1986), the most common implicit definition for informational efficiency is that prices will not change if all private information is publicized. Zou (2011) interprets this type of efficiency as the effectiveness of market information

Equity market anomalies: concepts, classifications, theories and evidence

At the outset, it is important to understand the meaning of ‘anomalies’. In general, anomalies are known as irregularities or deviations from the natural order (George and Elton, 2001). Anomalies that arise from the trading of financial instruments are referred to as the moments when security prices depart from their normal behaviour (Dana and Cristina, 2013). In relation to stock trading specifically, Hubbard (2008) defines anomalies as the trading opportunities derived from the investment strategies that allow for earning above-normal returns

Vertical Fiscal Imbalance, Economic Growth and Decentralization

Irrespective of the degree of tax and expenditure decentralization, every federation and unitary state face the problem of Vertical Fiscal Imbalance (VFI). The transfer dependency of subnational governments led them to substitute central transfers over their own revenue effort and this is historically evident in Pakistan. The contribution of provincial own revenues to the provincial expenditures is not much decent, which led to higher magnitude of VFIs. This paper is an empirical investigation of VFI, and its determinants. Based on a strongly balanced panel data at provincial (subnational) level from 1971 to 2021, we studied the effect of economic growth, tax decentralization, expenditure decentralization, and Eighteenth Amendment to the Constitution on VFIs. One of the key distinctions of this paper is modelling economic growth using per capita energy consumption which includes electricity, natural gas and set of petroleum products. Economic growth proxied through per capita energy consumption has negative association with VFI which means a corrective effect on VFI. Similarly, tax decentralization is also negatively associated with VFI, which obviously means corrective effect and less transfer dependency on federal government. To the contrary a positive association between expenditure decentralization and VFI is indicative that increase in government size/budget outlay are broadly financed through federal transfers thereby creating larger vertical fiscal imbalances. This also give policy prescription for future, that tax decentralization has disproportionality higher benefits compared to expenditure decentralization in terms of magnitude of VFIs. Based on different model specifications, we found that Eighteenth Amendment to the Constitution has both corrective and expansionary effect on VFIs