A quantitative model for estimating risk from multiple interacting natural hazards: an application to northeast Zhejiang, China

Multi-hazard risk assessment is a major concern in risk analysis, but most approaches do not consider all hazard interactions when calculating possible losses. We address this problem by developing an improved quantitative model - Model for multi-hazard Risk assessment with a consideration of Hazard Interaction (MmhRisk-HI). This model calculates the possible loss caused by multiple hazards, with an explicit consideration of interaction between those hazards. There are two main components to the model. In the first, based on the hazard-forming environment, relationships among hazards are classified into four types for calculation of the exceedance probability of multiple hazards occurrence. In the second, a Bayesian network is used to calculate possible loss caused by multiple hazards with different exceedance probabilities. A multi-hazard risk map can then be drawn addressing the probability of multi-hazard occurrence and corresponding loss. This model was applied in northeast Zhejiang, China and validated by comparison against an observed multi-hazard sequence. The validation results show that the model can more effectively represent the real world, and that the modelled outputs, possible loss caused by multiple hazards, are reliable. The outputs can additionally help to identify areas at greatest risk, and allows a determination of the factors that contribute to that risk, and hence the model can provide useful further information for planners and decision-makers concerned with risk mitigation

A New Future for Business? Rethinking Management Theory and Business Strategy

In this introductory article, we discuss the need for a rethinking of the theoretical foundations of management and the practice of business strategy in view of a range of social, environmental and ethical challenges that highlight the limits of ‘business as usual’. Calls for a reconsideration of current approaches have come to the fore in the fields of management, accounting, marketing and finance and we briefly review them here. We then introduce the four papers included in this special issue, each of which answers previously unechoed calls from different field of business research. We highlight how each paper contributes to novel perspectives on a future for business - perspectives that more adequately reflect the challenges faced today by both the private sector and society at large. Areas for further research are indicated as well