Development of a coronal mass ejection arrival time forecasting system using interplanetary scintillation observations

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) cause disturbances in the environment of the Earth when they arrive at the Earth. However, the prediction of the arrival of CMEs still remains a challenge. We have developed an interplanetary scintillation (IPS) estimation system based on a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the inner heliosphere to predict the arrival time of CMEs. In this system, the initial speed of a CME is roughly derived from white light coronagraph observations. Then, the propagation of the CME is calculated by a global MHD simulation. The IPS response is estimated by the three-dimensional density distribution of the inner heliosphere derived from the MHD simulation. The simulated IPS response is compared with the actual IPS observations made by the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, and shows good agreement with that observed. We demonstrated how the simulation system works using a halo CME event generated by a X9.3 flare observed on September 5, 2017. We find that the CME simulation that best estimates the IPS observation can more accurately predict the time of arrival of the CME at the Earth. These results suggest that the accuracy of the CME arrival time can be improved if our current MHD simulations include IPS data.Comment: 39 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in Earth, Planets and Spac

Is the Polar Region Different from the Quiet Region of the Sun?

Observations of the polar region of the Sun are critically important for understanding the solar dynamo and the acceleration of solar wind. We carried out precise magnetic observations on both the North polar region and the quiet Sun at the East limb with the Spectro-Polarimeter of the Solar Optical Telescope aboard Hinode to characterize the polar region with respect to the quiet Sun. The average area and the total magnetic flux of the kG magnetic concentrations in the polar region appear to be larger than those of the quiet Sun. The magnetic field vectors classified as vertical in the quiet Sun have symmetric histograms around zero in the strengths, showing balanced positive and negative flux, while the histogram in the North polar region is clearly asymmetric, showing a predominance of the negative polarity. The total magnetic flux of the polar region is larger than that of the quiet Sun. In contrast, the histogram of the horizontal magnetic fields is exactly the same between the polar region and the quiet Sun. This is consistent with the idea that a local dynamo process is responsible for the horizontal magnetic fields. A high-resolution potential field extrapolation shows that the majority of magnetic field lines from the kG-patches in the polar region are open with a fanning-out structure very low in the atmosphere, while in the quiet Sun, almost all the field lines are closed.Comment: Accepted for publication in AP