Prediction of indicators through machine learning and anomaly detection : a case study in the supplementary health system in Brazil

The research aimed to investigate the stages of a MachineLearning model process creation inordertopredict the indicator over the number of medical appointments per day done in the areaof supplementary health inthe region ofPorto Alegre /RS - Brazil and to propose a metric for anomalies detection. Literature reviewand applied case study wasusedas a methodology inthis paper,besides wasused the statistical software calledR, in order toprepare the data and create the model. Thestages ofthecase study was: database extraction, division of the base in training andtesting, creation of functions and feature engineering,variables selection and correlationanalysis, choiceof the algorithms with cross-validationand tuning, training of models, application of the models in the test data, selection of the best model and proposal of the metric for anomalies detection. At the end of these stages, it was possible to select the best modelin terms ofMAE (MeanAbsolute Error), the Random Forest, which was the algorithm withbetter performance when compared to Linear Regression and Neural Network. It also makes possible to identified nine anomaly points and thirty-eight warning points using the standard deviation metric. It was concluded, through the proposed methodology and the results obtained, that the steps of feature engineering and variables selection were essential for the creation and selection of the model, in addition, the proposed metric achieved the objective of generates alerts in the indicator, showing cases with possible problems or opportunities

Business Process Management (BPM) application through strategy, indicators and operations model (MEIO) : a health service company case

Business Process Management (BPM) is an approach to analyze and improve main activities of a company continuously. It seeks consistent results aligned with the strategic objectives. There are several approaches to the application of BPM, which focus on specific aspects of the company, not meeting all their needs. The Strategy, Indicators and Operations Model (MEIO), developed by Müller (2003), compiles the fundamental points of each isolated approach, creating a single model. The objective of this work is to provide a step-by-step application of the BPM aspects of MEIO in a practical case: a reference company that provides health services. Also, it provides a framework for organizing and connecting the various components of a product or service to its value chain. Through MEIO, a general analyze of the Company under study was made andthe process “payment of invoices from providers” was detailed. Improvements were suggested based on a deeper investigation of the activities involved. The results include: (i) creation of rules engine to validate the procedures to be launched according to coverage, shortage, and contract; (ii) receiving procedure and cost audits separately and; (iii) digitalization and automatization of repetitive and manual activities

Ranking dos fatores críticos de sucesso na implantação do BPM em Instituições Federais de ensino superior

A busca por melhores resultados e a limitação de recursos vêm fazendo com que práticas de gestão como a implantação da Gestão por Processos (BPM) ganhem espaço nas Instituições Federais de Ensino Superior (IFES) no Brasil. Este estudo tem por objetivo identificar quais são os Fatores Críticos de Sucesso que exercem maior impacto nas etapas de implantação do BPM nas IFES. Trata-se de uma pesquisa aplicada, de abordagem qualitativa e de caráter descritivo-exploratório. Com a aplicação do método Design Science Research (DSR), inicialmente, identificaram-se as etapas de implantação do BPM em IFES e seus Fatores Críticos de Sucesso (FCS). Desenvolveu-se uma matriz que relacionou esses elementos, de modo a permitir a identificação do grau de impacto dos FCS em cada uma das etapas de implantação do BPM. Na sequência, foram selecionados os Fatores Críticos de Sucesso com maior incidência de alto impacto para validação em algumas Universidades. Como principais resultados alcançados, tem-se o ranking dos Fatores Críticos de Sucesso com maior incidência de alto impacto para a implantação do BPM em IFES na visão dos especialistas e na perspectiva das IFES.The search for better results and the limitation of resources have led to management practices such as the implementation of Business Process Management (BPM) gain ground in Federal Institutions of Higher Education in Brazil. This study aims to identify which are the Critical Success Factors that have the greatest impact in the stages of BPM implementation in the Brazilian Federal Institutions of Higher Education. It is about an applied research with a qualitative approach and a descriptive exploratory nature. By applying the Design Science Research (DSR) method, the stages of BPM implementation in Higher Education Federal Institutions and their Critical Success Factors (CSF) have been initially identified. A matrix which related these elements has been developed in order to allow the identification of the degree of impact of the Critical Success Factors in each of the stages of BPM implementation. Following this, the Critical Success Factors with higher incidence of high impact have been selected for validation in some Universities. As the main results achieved, there has been the ranking of the Critical Success Factors with strong incidence of high impact for the implementation of BPM in Higher Education Federal Institutions

Competitiveness and city development : brief comments on competitiveness, strategic planning and their effects on urban planning

Este trabalho visa abordar a conceituação de competitividade no âmbito de cidades como organizações e como se compõe este conceito na realidade das cidades em tempos atuais. Para tanto, analisa-se como a gestão pública e a gestão do desenvolvimento urbano se relacionam na criação de ambientes propícios a um desenvolvimento sustentável. São abordados como conceitos de eficiência e inovação devem ser incorporados ao planejamento estratégico de cidades, de modo a direcioná-las ao desenvolvimento sustentável e ao posicionamento como smart cities (cidades inteligentes). Vê-se que em diversos aspectos o gerenciamento e planejamento de cidades se assemelha ao de demais organizações e, consequentemente, dado um adequado posicionamento, possui potencial para otimização e busca por logística, sustentabilidade e recursos financeiros, humanos e energéticos.This paper aims to address the concept of competitiveness within cities as organizations and how this concept is composed in the reality of cities in current times. It analyzes how public management and urban development management are related to the creation of favorable environments. towards sustainable development. They are approached as concepts of efficiency and innovation and should be incorporated into strategic city planning in order to direct them to sustainable development and positioning as smart cities. It is seen that in many respects the management and planning of cities resembles that of other organizations and consequently has potential for optimization, given an adequate positioning and search for financial, human and energy resources; logistics and sustainability

Implementation of BPM in IFES : proposition of a process prioritization method

Da implantação do BPM (Business Process Management) pode-se esperar diversos benefícios, como melhorar o entendimento do todo e iniciativas de mudança na organização; e gerar impactos positivos e melhorias na satisfação dos clientes. Alguns aspectos fundamentais da implantação do BPM são a definição dos processos-chave em que a organização deve focar, porém é necessário definir anteriormente sua arquitetura e portfólio de processos, que permitirá às organizações entenderem como geram valor aos seus clientes, proporcionando o alinhamento entre estratégia, processos e sistemas. Este trabalho tem como objetivo a definição de um método de priorização de processos para iniciativa de melhorias em Instituições Federais de Ensino Superior (IFES). Utilizou-se como embasamento teórico conceitos e estudos relacionados principalmente a Business Process Management (BPM). A metodologia de pesquisa utilizada foi de abordagem qualitativa, de caráter descritivo-exploratório e o método Design Science Research (DSR) para a elaboração de um artefato de priorização de processos envolvendo critérios definidos com base na literatura estudada. O estudo apresentou o resultado da aplicação do artefato, após sua validação e preenchimento por parte dos especialistas em BPM e demais participantes da pesquisa. Foi possível definir o processo prioritário para iniciativas de melhoria no contexto estudado. O presente estudo poderá ser aplicado em organizações similares, desde que feitas as devidas adequações ao contexto organizacional. As principais contribuições deste trabalho centram-se no fato de fornecer subsídios para facilitar a definição dos processos chave das IFES, em busca da geração de valor para seus clientes, tornando-as assim mais competitivas.From the implementation of BPM (Business Process Management) several benefits can be expected. It can improve the understanding of the whole and changing initiatives in organization; it can generate positive impacts and improvements in satisfaction for the client. Some of the main aspects of BPM implementation are the definition of the key processes on which the organization must focus at. In order to achieve this goal, however, it is necessary to previously define its architecture and process portfolio. These definitions allow organizations to understand how they create value to their customers and can provide alignment between strategy, processes and systems. This work aims to establish a method for prioritizing processes that will cause improvements at the Federal Institutes of Higher Education (IFES). As a theoretical basis, it used concepts and studies related to Business Process Management (BPM). The research methodology applied was a qualitative approach, of a descriptive-exploratory nature, using the Design Science Research (DSR) method for the elaboration of prioritizing processes artefact involving definite criteria based on the literature studied. The study presented the result of the application of the artifact, after its validation and fulfillment by BPM specialists and other research participants. It also made possible to define the priority process for improvement initiatives in the studied context. The present study can be applied to similar organizations, since appropriate adjustments are done to the organizational context. The major contributions of this work focus on the fact that it provides subsidies to facilitate the definition of key processes of IFES, in search of generating value for their clients, thus making them more competitive

The six stages of management by processes : proposal for a method

Métodos voltados à gestão por processos têm sido importantes ferramentas para melhorar o desempenho operacional. Contudo, apesar dos aportes destes métodos, maiores avanços ainda são necessários. O presente artigo tem como objetivo apresentar um método para a gestão por processos, contendo seis fases: conhecimento da organização, seleção do processo, mapeamento do processo, análise do processo, estabelecimento de mudanças e implementação e monitoramento do processo. Para poder analisar a utilidade desta proposta, foi realizado um estudo de caso em uma farmácia de manipulação. Os resultados obtidos nesse estudo de caso permitiram a redução de 23% no tempo de ciclo do produto e de 30% no tempo gasto para a produção de uma unidade, resultando em um aumento de produtividade em torno de 31%. No que diz respeito à empresa, a aplicação do método proporcionou evolução organizacional, pois houve a efetivação da aplicação do método no contexto da empresa, aprendizagem dos conceitos sobre a gestão por processo e por fatores como: o conhecimento por parte da empresa sobre a nova forma de gerenciamento, a conscientização por parte dos colaboradores envolvidos com o projeto e da alta direção a respeito da necessidade dessa mudança e o empenho dos mesmos na busca de informações relevantes para a tomada de decisão sobre as mudanças.Methods aimed to the management by processes have been important tools to improve the operational performance. However, despite the inputs of those methods, greater improvements are still necessary. The present article aims to submit a method for a management by processes, holding six stages: organizational knowledge, process selection, process mapping, process analysis, change establishment, and process implementation and monitoring. To be able to analyze the usefulness of that proposal, a case study was performed at a manipulation pharmacy. The results obtained in that case study allowed the decrease of 23% of the product cycle time and a decrease of 30% of the time spent on the production of one unit, resulting in an increase in productivity of around 31%. With regards to the company, the application of the method provided a significant organizational evolution, since there was the establishing of the introduction, in its context, of concepts about management by processes through factors like: the company knowledge about the new method of management, the awareness of the collaborators involved with the project and awareness of the senior management regarding that need for change and their commitment to searching for relevant information for the decision-making about the change

Energy Estimation of Cosmic Rays with the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) is part of the Pierre Auger Observatory and is used to detect the radio emission of cosmic-ray air showers. These observations are compared to the data of the surface detector stations of the Observatory, which provide well-calibrated information on the cosmic-ray energies and arrival directions. The response of the radio stations in the 30 to 80 MHz regime has been thoroughly calibrated to enable the reconstruction of the incoming electric field. For the latter, the energy deposit per area is determined from the radio pulses at each observer position and is interpolated using a two-dimensional function that takes into account signal asymmetries due to interference between the geomagnetic and charge-excess emission components. The spatial integral over the signal distribution gives a direct measurement of the energy transferred from the primary cosmic ray into radio emission in the AERA frequency range. We measure 15.8 MeV of radiation energy for a 1 EeV air shower arriving perpendicularly to the geomagnetic field. This radiation energy -- corrected for geometrical effects -- is used as a cosmic-ray energy estimator. Performing an absolute energy calibration against the surface-detector information, we observe that this radio-energy estimator scales quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy as expected for coherent emission. We find an energy resolution of the radio reconstruction of 22% for the data set and 17% for a high-quality subset containing only events with at least five radio stations with signal.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO