Using Groupware to Build a Scenario-Based Early Warning System

Contains fulltext : 139630.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access)Scenario analysis has been used as a technique to support strategy formulation for several decades. During scenario analyses, the effects of different possible futures (scenarios) on the performance of an organization are assessed. Moreover, actions are formulated to deal with these effects. This analysis may help organizations to prepare themselves to take effective actions when one of these futures manifests itself. A scenario approach to strategy formulation depends on intelligence gathering: one should (1) have relevant environmental information to build effective scenarios, and once a set of scenarios has been defined, one should (2) continuously monitor the environment to determine in what direction the future is moving. The usefulness of scenario analysis to focus intelligence activities—specifically the direction and analysis stages of the intelligence cycle—has been noted by several authors (e.g., Ellis, 1993; Tessun, 1997). In this chapter we will focus on scenario analysis as a tool to support the direction stage. In particular, scenario analysis may lead to a set of relevant early warning variables. Specific attention will be paid to the role of ICT tools (specifically groupware tools) to support the construction of scenarios and to derive a set of relevant early warning indicators

Consensus bouwen in een probleemwijk. Modelbouw als interventiemethode bij het bestrijden van overlast

Contains fulltext : 68602.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)22 p

Using Groupware to Build a Scenario-Based Early Warning System

Scenario analysis has been used as a technique to support strategy formulation for several decades. During scenario analyses, the effects of different possible futures (scenarios) on the performance of an organization are assessed. Moreover, actions are formulated to deal with these effects. This analysis may help organizations to prepare themselves to take effective actions when one of these futures manifests itself. A scenario approach to strategy formulation depends on intelligence gathering: one should (1) have relevant environmental information to build effective scenarios, and once a set of scenarios has been defined, one should (2) continuously monitor the environment to determine in what direction the future is moving. The usefulness of scenario analysis to focus intelligence activities—specifically the direction and analysis stages of the intelligence cycle—has been noted by several authors (e.g., Ellis, 1993; Tessun, 1997). In this chapter we will focus on scenario analysis as a tool to support the direction stage. In particular, scenario analysis may lead to a set of relevant early warning variables. Specific attention will be paid to the role of ICT tools (specifically groupware tools) to support the construction of scenarios and to derive a set of relevant early warning indicators

Participatieve Modelbouw; Communicatie-Infrastructuur.

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Validity in SSM: neglected areas

Contains fulltext : 139631.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access)Contrary to the prevailing notion in hard OR, in soft system methodology (SSM), validity seems to play a minor role. The primary reason for this is that SSM models are of a different type, they are not would-be descriptions of real-world situations. Therefore, establishing their validity, that is representativeness with regard to reality, is useless. However, in this paper, we employ a broader meaning of validity (well-groundedness) and demonstrate that this surfaces a couple of neglected areas in the discussion of validity in SSM. These relate to (a) the notion of SSM as a learning system, (b) the idea to improve real-world problem situations, and (c) learning about the effectiveness of SSM itself