Assessing Impact

We take this opportunity to communicate Heron's approach to assessing impact, with a particular audience in mind: our customers -- grantees, investees and applicants.We thought that it might be useful to outline how and why we support practitioners and their networks in results-based, management-oriented systems for assessing impact. Following this letter, we highlight four organizations that demonstrate impact at the local, regional and national levels

\u3cem\u3eTeen Mothers and the Revolving Welfare Door.\u3c/em\u3e Kathleen Mullan Harris

Kathleen Mullan Harris, Teen Mothers and the Revolving Welfare Door. Philadelphia, Temple University Press, 1997. $ 39.95 hardcover

Seasonal prediction of lake inflows and rainfall in a hydro-electricity catchment, Waitaki river, New Zealand

The Waitaki River is located in the centre of the South Island of New Zealand, and hydro-electricity generated on the river accounts for 35-40% of New Zealand's electricity. Low inflows in 1992 and 2001 resulted in the threat of power blackouts. Improved seasonal rainfall and inflow forecasts will result in the better management of the water used in hydro-generation on a seasonal basis. Researchers have stated that two key directions in the fields of seasonal rainfall and streamflow forecasting are to a) decrease the spatial scale of forecast products, and b) tailor forecast products to end-user needs, so as to provide more relevant and targeted forecasts. Several season-ahead lake inflow and rainfall forecast models were calibrated for the Waitaki river catchment using statistical techniques to quantify relationships between land-ocean-atmosphere state variables and seasonally lagged inflows and rainfall. Techniques included principal components analysis and multiple linear regression, with cross-validation techniques applied to estimate model error and randomization techniques used to establish the significance of the skill of the models. Many of the models calibrated predict rainfall and inflows better than random chance and better than the long-term mean as a predictor. When compared to the range of all probable inflow seasonal totals (based on the 80-year recorded history in the catchment), 95% confidence limits around most model predictions offer significant skill. These models explain up to 19% of the variance in season-ahead rainfall and inflows in this catchment. Seasonal rainfall and inflow forecasting on a single catchment scale and focussed to end-user needs is possible with some skill in the South Island of New Zealand

Madonna

Archived website and summary of exhibit in the Marian Library Artist: G. E. Mullan Exhibit dates: July 11 - August 26, 199

Making automation pay - cost & throughput trade-offs in the manufacture of large composite components

The automation of complex manufacturing operations can provide significant savings over manual processes, and there remains much scope for increasing automation in the production of large scale structural composites. However the relationships between driving variables are complex, and the achievable throughput rate and corresponding cost for a given design are often not apparent. The deposition rate, number of machines required and unit production rates needed are interrelated and consequently the optimum unit cost is difficult to predict. A detailed study of the costs involved for a series of composite wing cover panels with different manufacturing requirements was undertaken. Panels were sized to account for manufacturing requirements and structural load requirements allowing both manual and automated lay-up procedures to influence design. It was discovered that the introduction of automated tape lay-up can significantly reduce material unit cost, and improve material utilisation, however higher production rates are needed to see this benefit