Using vital registration data to track mortality in Zimbabwe's metropolitan populations: 2000-2012

The vital registration system in Zimbabwe is incomplete and mortality estimates produced from these data might not give a true representation of mortality in the population. However, it may be assumed that vital registration data for urban areas is more complete than for the country as a whole. This research was, therefore, conducted in an attempt to answer the question of whether vital registration data can be used to track the mortality of Zimbabwe's metropolitan populations. To answer this question, direct and indirect estimates from census and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data were used to decide on the viability of using these vital registration data to estimate mortality. Estimates of under-five mortality between 2001 and 2011 from vital registration data ranged from around 50 to 80 deaths per thousand for Harare while Bulawayo's estimates were generally between 55 and 105 deaths per thousand in the same period. Bulawayo's vital registration data appeared to produce reasonable estimates of under-five mortality, while Harare's vital registration data underestimated both infant and under-five mortality when compared to the other supporting estimates from the alternative data sources

A review of simulation models for the long-term management of type 2 diabetes in low-and-middle income countries

Abstract Introduction The burden of type 2 diabetes is steadily increasing in low-and-middle-income countries, thereby posing a major threat from both a treatment, and funding standpoint. Although simulation modelling is generally relied upon for evaluating long-term costs and consequences associated with diabetes interventions, no recent article has reviewed the characteristics and capabilities of available models used in low-and-middle-income countries. We review the use of computer simulation modelling for the management of type 2 diabetes in low-and-middle-income countries. Methods A search for studies reporting computer simulation models of the natural history of individuals with type 2 diabetes and/or decision models to evaluate the impact of treatment strategies on these populations was conducted in PubMed. Data were extracted following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and assessed using modelling checklists. Publications before the year 2000, from high-income countries, studies involving animals and analyses that did not use mathematical simulations were excluded. The full text of eligible articles was sourced and information about the intervention and population being modelled, type of modelling approach and the model structure was extracted. Results Of the 79 articles suitable for full text review, 44 studies met the inclusion criteria. All were cost-effectiveness/utility studies with the majority being from the East Asia and Pacific region (n = 29). Of the included studies, 34 (77.3%) evaluated the cost-effectiveness of pharmacological interventions and approximately 75% of all included studies used HbA1c as one of the treatment effects of the intervention. 32 (73%) of the publications were microsimulation models, and 29 (66%) were state-transition models. Most of the studies utilised annual cycles (n = 29, 71%), and accounted for costs and outcomes over 20 years or more (n = 38, 86.4%). Conclusions While the use of simulation modelling in the management of type 2 diabetes has been steadily increasing in low-and-middle-income countries, there is an urgent need to invest in evaluating therapeutic and policy interventions related to type 2 diabetes in low-and-middle-income countries through simulation modelling, especially with local research data. Moreover, it is important to improve transparency and credibility in the reporting of input data underlying model-based economic analyses, and studies

Transfers between health facilities of people living with diabetes attending primary health care services in the Western Cape Province of South Africa: A retrospective cohort study

Objectives: Transfers between health facilities of people living with HIV attending primary health care (PHC) including hospital to PHC facility, PHC facility to hospital and PHC facility to PHC facility transfers occur frequently, affect health service planning, and are associated with disengagement from care and viraemia. Data on transfers among people living with diabetes attending PHC, particularly transfers between PHC facilities, are few. We assessed the transfer incidence rate of people living with diabetes attending PHC, and the association between transfers between PHC facilities and subsequent HbA1c values. Methods: We analysed data on HbA1c tests at public sector facilities in the Western Cape Province (2016–March 2020). Individuals with an HbA1c in 2016–2017 were followed‐up for 27 months and included in the analysis if ≥18 years at first included HbA1c, ≥2 HbA1cs during follow‐up and ≥1 HbA1c at a PHC facility. A visit interval was the duration between two consecutive HbA1cs. Successive HbA1cs at different facilities of any type indicated any transfer, and HbA1cs at different PHC facilities indicated a transfer between PHC facilities. Mixed effects logistic regression adjusted for sex, age, rural/urban facility attended at the start of the visit interval, disengagement (visit interval >14 months) and a hospital visit during follow‐up assessed the association between transfers between PHC facilities and HbA1c >8%. Results: Among 102,813 participants, 22.6% had ≥1 transfer of any type. Including repeat transfers, there were 29,994 transfers (14.4 transfers per 100 person‐years, 95% confidence interval [CI] 14.3–14.6). A total of 6996 (30.1%) of those who transferred had a transfer between PHC facilities. Visit intervals with a transfer between PHC facilities were longer (349 days, interquartile range [IQR] 211–503) than those without any transfer (330 days, IQR 182–422). The adjusted relative odds of an HbA1c ≥8% after a transfer between PHC facilities versus no transfer were 1.20 (95% CI 1.05–1.37). Conclusion: The volume of transfers involving PHC facilities requires consideration when planning services. Individuals who transfer between PHC facilities require additional monitoring and support

Positive attitudes toward adoption of a multi-component intervention strategy aimed at improving HIV outcomes among adolescents and young people in Nampula, Mozambique: perspectives of HIV care providers

Abstract Background Service providers' attitudes toward interventions are essential for adopting and implementing novel interventions into healthcare settings, but evidence of evaluations in the HIV context is still limited. This study is part of the CombinADO cluster randomized trial (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04930367), which is investigating the effectiveness of a multi-component intervention package (CombinADO strategy) aimed at improving HIV outcomes among adolescents and young adults living with HIV (AYAHIV) in Mozambique. In this paper we present findings on key stakeholder attitudes toward adopting study interventions into local health services. Methods Between September and December 2021, we conducted a cross-sectional survey with a purposive sample of 59 key stakeholders providing and overseeing HIV care among AYAHIV in 12 health facilities participating in the CombinADO trial, who completed a 9-item scale on attitudes towards adopting the trial intervention packages in health facilities. Data were collected in the pre-implementation phase of the study and included individual stakeholder and facility-level characteristics. We used generalized linear regression to examine the associations of stakeholder attitude scores with stakeholder and facility-level characteristics. Results Overall, service-providing stakeholders within this setting reported positive attitudes regarding adopting intervention packages across study clinic sites; the overall mean total attitude score was 35.0 ([SD] = 2.59, Range = [30–41]). The study package assessed (control or intervention condition) and the number of healthcare workers delivering ART care in participating clinics were the only significant explanatory variables to predict higher attitude scores among stakeholders (β = 1.57, 95% CI = 0.34–2.80, p = 0.01 and β = 1.57, 95% CI = 0.06–3.08, p = 0.04 respectively). Conclusions This study found positive attitudes toward adopting the multi-component CombinADO study interventions among HIV care providers for AYAHIV in Nampula, Mozambique. Our findings suggest that adequate training and human resource availability may be important in promoting the adoption of novel multi-component interventions in healthcare services by influencing healthcare provider attitudes

Coupled forest plots showing the subgroups in the DR classification criteria.

ICDR, International Clinical Diabetic Retinopathy; NHS DES, National Health Service Diabetic Eye Screening.</p

Overall patient-level and eye-level meta-analysis of the accuracy of AI in detecting RDR compared with trained HGs.

Overall patient-level and eye-level meta-analysis of the accuracy of AI in detecting RDR compared with trained HGs.</p

Coupled forest plot of included studies for patient-level analysis.

Coupled forest plot of included studies for patient-level analysis.</p

Coupled forest plot of included studies for eye-level analysis.

Coupled forest plot of included studies for eye-level analysis.</p

Coupled forest plot of studies with ≥3 human graders as the ground truth on reference standard.

Coupled forest plot of studies with ≥3 human graders as the ground truth on reference standard.</p