Approaches to anticipatory governance in West Africa: How conceptions of the future have implications for climate action in the present

Methods and tools to anticipate futures are growing in prominence to guide decision-making under climate change. A research agenda into the steering effects of these processes is growing but has largely ignored how imagined futures impact present-day actions beyond the Global North. This paper presents a case study analysis of anticipatory governance in a highly climate-vulnerable area - West Africa. It examines processes of anticipation through an analytical framework that identifies four distinct approaches to anticipatory governance in terms of their conceptualization of the future, implications for actions in the present, and ultimate aims intended to be realized. The study finds two dominant approaches that appear in hybrid forms which are quite technocratic in character. These hybrids assess probable or plausible futures to inform and build capacities for strategic risk reduction. Many anticipation processes are participatory, but often focus on transferring expert-based knowledge to stakeholders or discussing adaptation options rather than opening up dialogue on what and whose futures to engage with. The paper argues that more plural and critical dialogue is needed in which stakeholders have agency to shape futures and address power imbalances, particularly in these contexts where anticipation relies on western funding and science

Approaches through which anticipation informs climate governance in South Asia

This report presents the RE-IMAGINE research in one of its four regions: South Asia. RE-IMAGINE builds on climate foresight expertise of the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Program and analyses the role of foresight in climate governance across the globe. Scenarios and many other methods and tools are used today to imagine climate futures and develop strategies for realizing new futures while governing climate change. With the proliferation of these processes in sustainability-related research and planning contexts, scrutiny of their role in steering climate actions in the present becomes increasingly important. How can the benefits and challenges of these processes of anticipation be better understood as governance interventions? At the same time, research into anticipatory climate governance processes in the Global South has remained very limited, while these regions are most vulnerable to climate change. The RE-IMAGINE report therefore examines processes of anticipation in four regions of the Global South. The research question we answer in this report is: ‘through what approaches are diverse processes of anticipation used to govern climate change in diverse South Asian contexts?’. In order to answer this question, we first examine what methods and tools are used to anticipate climate futures and their role in climate policy and decision-making. We then closely examine three case studies to understand their approaches to anticipatory governance. Additionally, we present the results of two regional meetings with stakeholders where we discussed the challenges that exist in each country to practice anticipatory climate governance and the opportunities to strengthen capacities in this field. Finally, we present recommendations for strengthening processes of anticipatory climate governance in the region

Anticipatory climate governance in Central America

Anticipating the possible impacts of climate change has become a key global focus. Scenarios and many other methods and tools are used today to imagine climate futures and develop strategies for realizing new futures while governing climate change. With the proliferation of these processes in sustainability-related research and planning contexts, scrutiny of their role in steering decision-making becomes increasingly important. How can the benefits and challenges of these processes of anticipation be better understood as governance interventions? Research into anticipatory climate governance processes in the Global South has remained very limited, while these regions are most vulnerable to climate change. This report therefore examines processes of anticipation in Central America. The research question we answer is: ‘through what approaches are diverse processes of anticipation used to govern climate change in diverse Central American contexts?’. In order to answer this question, we first examine what methods and tools are used to anticipate climate futures and their role in climate policy and decision-making. We then closely examine three case studies to understand their approaches to anticipatory governance. Additionally, we present the results of two regional meetings with stakeholders where we discussed the challenges that exist in each country to practice anticipatory climate governance and the opportunities to strengthen capacities in this field. Finally, we present recommendations for strengthening processes of anticipatory climate governance in the region

Anticipatory climate governance in Southeast Asia

This report presents the RE-IMAGINE research in one of its four regions: Southeast Asia. RE-IMAGINE builds on climate foresight expertise of the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Program and analyses the role of foresight in climate governance across the globe. Anticipating the possible impacts of climate change has become a key global focus. Scenarios and many other methods and tools are used today to imagine climate futures and develop strategies for realizing new futures while governing climate change. With the proliferation of these processes in sustainability-related research and planning contexts, scrutiny of their role in steering decision-making becomes increasingly important. How can the benefits and challenges of these processes of anticipation be better understood as governance interventions? Research into anticipatory climate governance processes in the Global South has remained very limited, while these regions are most vulnerable to climate change. This report therefore examines processes of anticipation in Southeast Asia. The research question we answer is: ‘through what approaches are diverse processes of anticipation used to govern climate change in diverse Southeast Asian contexts?’. We first examine what methods and tools are used to anticipate climate futures and their role in climate policy and decision-making. We then closely examine three case studies to understand their approaches to anticipatory governance. Additionally, we present the results of two regional meetings with stakeholders where we discussed the challenges that exist in each country to practice anticipatory climate governance and the opportunities to strengthen capacities in this field. Finally, we present recommendations for strengthening processes of anticipatory climate governance in the region

Transformative horizons: reflecting on a decade of scenario-guided policy formulation

Participatory foresight has proliferated rapidly in response to unprecedented global uncertainty and the need to transform to more sustainable societies. However, the link from foresight to action is often under-researched; and understanding how foresight can be used for the realization of transformative ambitions has proven particularly difficult. In this paper, we reflect on a unique case: a project that spans eleven years of scenario-guided participatory policy formulation processes for food security and agriculture under climate change across seven global regions. Many of the policy formulation processes in these regions have led to changed policies and plans as a result of participatory scenario analysis. The length, scope, and level of policy engagement that characterizes this case offers unique opportunities for learning about impactful foresight. In addition, lessons from the project have proliferated into a range of other initiatives that have often been able to complement the original project strategies with new approaches that have in turn yielded more insights. We provide core insights from the successes and failures in this unique global case for connecting foresight to action by examining interactions between 1) institutional contexts and knowledge systems; 2) relationships with the future; 3) imaginaries; 4) participation cultures; 5) process designs and participants; and 6) futures methodology. We then go on to discuss how such best practices can be ‘scaled deep’; ‘scaled out’; and ‘scaled up’ for transformative change

The anticipatory governance of sustainable futures

Many different approaches are used today to anticipate possible futures and to guide policies, strategies and actions in the present. But how is the future conceptualized in these anticipation processes, what are the impacts of this conceptualization on governance actions in the present, and what are the implications for realizing sustainability transformations? This thesis answers these questions by investigating the use of anticipation in diverse sustainability contexts across the globe through a new theoretical perspective. The research finds that most foresight practitioners use hybrid approaches to anticipatory governance that connect probabilistic, plausibilistic and pluralistic conceptions of the future. However, despite this diversity of conceptions of the future, the resulting policies and strategies are formulated in a rather technocratic and prediction-oriented way. As such, ideas about a more fundamentally uncertain and contested future become subordinate to an anticipatory governance approach that seeks to plan the future and reduce risks. When foresight practitioners and policymakers ask participants to engage in a dialogue about the future, their visions are often fitted into existing policy frameworks without putting these frameworks as such into question. The effect of these dynamics is that fundamentally different futures are overlooked. The thesis concludes that this closing down of the future may hinder the search for more radical transformations and may reassert the status quo. Furthermore, the global dominance of the technical approach to anticipation, often relying on western science, technologies, and funding, may push out culturally, socially, and politically diverse future worldviews

The anticipatory governance of sustainable futures

Many different approaches are used today to anticipate possible futures and to guide policies, strategies and actions in the present. But how is the future conceptualized in these anticipation processes, what are the impacts of this conceptualization on governance actions in the present, and what are the implications for realizing sustainability transformations? This thesis answers these questions by investigating the use of anticipation in diverse sustainability contexts across the globe through a new theoretical perspective. The research finds that most foresight practitioners use hybrid approaches to anticipatory governance that connect probabilistic, plausibilistic and pluralistic conceptions of the future. However, despite this diversity of conceptions of the future, the resulting policies and strategies are formulated in a rather technocratic and prediction-oriented way. As such, ideas about a more fundamentally uncertain and contested future become subordinate to an anticipatory governance approach that seeks to plan the future and reduce risks. When foresight practitioners and policymakers ask participants to engage in a dialogue about the future, their visions are often fitted into existing policy frameworks without putting these frameworks as such into question. The effect of these dynamics is that fundamentally different futures are overlooked. The thesis concludes that this closing down of the future may hinder the search for more radical transformations and may reassert the status quo. Furthermore, the global dominance of the technical approach to anticipation, often relying on western science, technologies, and funding, may push out culturally, socially, and politically diverse future worldviews

Approaches to anticipatory governance in West Africa: How conceptions of the future have implications for climate action in the present

Methods and tools to anticipate futures are growing in prominence to guide decision-making under climate change. A research agenda into the steering effects of these processes is growing but has largely ignored how imagined futures impact present-day actions beyond the Global North. This paper presents a case study analysis of anticipatory governance in a highly climate-vulnerable area - West Africa. It examines processes of anticipation through an analytical framework that identifies four distinct approaches to anticipatory governance in terms of their conceptualization of the future, implications for actions in the present, and ultimate aims intended to be realized. The study finds two dominant approaches that appear in hybrid forms which are quite technocratic in character. These hybrids assess probable or plausible futures to inform and build capacities for strategic risk reduction. Many anticipation processes are participatory, but often focus on transferring expert-based knowledge to stakeholders or discussing adaptation options rather than opening up dialogue on what and whose futures to engage with. The paper argues that more plural and critical dialogue is needed in which stakeholders have agency to shape futures and address power imbalances, particularly in these contexts where anticipation relies on western funding and science

Gobernanza climática anticipatoria en Centroamérica

La anticipación de los posibles impactos del cambio climático se ha convertido en un enfoque global clave. Se usan escenarios y otros métodos y herramientas para imaginar futuros climáticos y para desarrollar estrategias que anticipen nuevos futuros mientras se gobierna el cambio climático. Por la proliferación de estos procesos en contextos asociados a la investigación y planeación, cada vez es más importante analizar el impacto que tienen sobre la toma de decisiones. ¿Cómo se pueden entender mejor los beneficios y retos de estos procesos de anticipación como intervenciones de gobernanza? La investigación sobre los procesos de gobernanza anticipatoria en relación al clima sigue estando muy limitada en el Sur Global, a pesar de que estas regiones son las más vulnerables al cambio climático. Este informe examina los procesos de anticipación empleados para gobernar el cambio climático en diversos contextos de Centroamérica. La pregunta que responde esta investigación es: “¿Cuáles enfoques se aplican en los procesos de anticipación para gobernar el cambio climático en los diversos contextos de Centroamérica?” Para responder a esta pregunta, primero examinamos qué métodos y herramientas se usan para anticipar los futuros climáticos, y el papel que éstas juegan en la formulación de políticas y la toma de decisiones sobre el clima. Hacemos un análisis profundo de tres estudios de caso para entender sus enfoques en relación a la gobernanza anticipatoria. Además, presentamos los resultados de dos reuniones regionales con actores de la región, en que se vieron los retos que enfrentan en cada país ante la práctica de gobernanza anticipatoria en relación al clima, así como las oportunidades para fortalecer las capacidades en esta área. Finalmente, presentamos recomendaciones para fortalecer los procesos de gobernanza anticipatoria en la región

Anticipatory climate governance in Central America

Anticipating the possible impacts of climate change has become a key global focus. Scenarios and many other methods and tools are used today to imagine climate futures and develop strategies for realizing new futures while governing climate change. With the proliferation of these processes in sustainability-related research and planning contexts, scrutiny of their role in steering decision-making becomes increasingly important. How can the benefits and challenges of these processes of anticipation be better understood as governance interventions? Research into anticipatory climate governance processes in the Global South has remained very limited, while these regions are most vulnerable to climate change. This report therefore examines processes of anticipation in Central America. The research question we answer is: ‘through what approaches are diverse processes of anticipation used to govern climate change in diverse Central American contexts?’. In order to answer this question, we first examine what methods and tools are used to anticipate climate futures and their role in climate policy and decision-making. We then closely examine three case studies to understand their approaches to anticipatory governance. Additionally, we present the results of two regional meetings with stakeholders where we discussed the challenges that exist in each country to practice anticipatory climate governance and the opportunities to strengthen capacities in this field. Finally, we present recommendations for strengthening processes of anticipatory climate governance in the region