Revealed Comparative Advantage and Pakistan’s Global Vegetable Potential in the Presence of Selected Exporters: New Evidence from Markov’s Stability Matrices and Kaplan-Meier’s Survival Function

The main objective of this research study is to evaluate Pakistan’s global agri-food product potential in the presence of the giant vegetable exporters of the world at HS-6 digit level of selected agri-food products during 1996-2020. Secondly, this study explores the stability and survival value of BRCA indices by employing Markov’s transition probability matrices and Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival function. Our findings reveal that Netherland, Spain, Mexico, and Belgium are the giant exporters of the selected agri-food products in the estimated-period, together giving 55% of all product exported. Normally, the results of mobility test and stability indices conclude that most of our selected countries (USA, China, Italy, Germany, Poland, Denmark, Canada and Turkey) have demonstrated, on average, a slow declining-trend in comparative advantage due to stiff competition in the global market while few exporters (Netherland, Spain, Mexico, France and Belgium) show a comparatively stable indices during the examined period. Therefore, these indices indicate a sharp decline in case of Pakistan, Russian Federation and Thailand. Furthermore, the agri-food products (070200) and (080590) comprise 25% and 20% of the selected commodities respectively. Finally, Pakistan being an agrarian economy and having BRCA index >1, should explore untapped global agri-food market by removing economic barriers, and improving agricultural production capabilities to enhance foreign exchange reserves