Les enjeux de la libéralisation des comptes de capital dans les pays du sud de la Méditerranée. = Challenges arising from Capital Account Liberalisation in the Countries of the South Mediterranean Region. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 11/March 2012

This MEDPRO Technical Report confirms the importance of commercial openness and macroeconomic performance (i.e. the control of inflation and stability of current account balance and exchange rate) on growth dynamics in the south Mediterranean countries. In particular, the positive impact of capital account liberalisation is conditioned by the imperative reinforcement of institutional quality, country risk reduction, and government stability. An examination of the Tunisian case shows that only sectors subject to tariff dismantlement within the framework of the Association Agreement with the EU appear to benefit from capital account liberalisation. Furthermore, the report shows that a scenario of capital account liberalisation requires the anticipation of monetary policy reaction functions. It follows that the mechanisms for interest rate adjustment, or inter alia, the interest rates’ reaction to price fluctuations, are weakly volatile. In turn, the analysis shows that an active control of inflation mismatches occurs essentially through exchange rate corrections, thus highlighting the greater interest central banks have in exchange rate stability over real stability. A capital account liberalisation scenario would hence impose a tightening of monetary policy

Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices in the MENA Countries: Some Further Empirical Results

This paper analyses the determinants of exchange rate practices in 15 MENA countries for the 1977- 2007 period placing special emphasis on structural and macroeconomic explanations. We use three different exchange rate regime classifications in order to avoid potentially misleading specification. Even though the empirical results using the de facto classifications are very different from those obtained from the de jure specification, we find that international reserves play a major role in determining exchange rate practices in the MENA countries.Exchange rate regimes, MENA countries, ordered Probit model.

Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices in the MENA Countries: Some Further Empirical Results

This paper analyses the determinants of exchange rate practices in 15 MENA countries for the 1977- 2007 period placing special emphasis on structural and macroeconomic explanations. We use three different exchange rate regime classifications in order to avoid potentially misleading specification. Even though the empirical results using the de facto classifications are very different from those obtained from the de jure specification, we find that international reserves play a major role in determining exchange rate practices in the MENA countries.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64374/1/wp952.pd

Le role des politiques monétaires et la convergence macroeconomique sur le développement des systèmes financiers dans les pays du sud de la Méditerranée. = The role of monetary policies and macroeconomic convergence in the development of financial systems in south Mediterranean countries. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 12/April 2012

This MEDPRO Technical Report shows that the monetary and exchange rate policies conducted by central banks in the South Mediterranean region display apparent homogeneity in their operational frameworks, albeit with some specificities and differing degrees of advancement. While central banks state that price stability is their ultimate objective, failures to control interest rates as operational objectives of monetary policy result in monetary authorities resorting to quantitative approaches to monetary policy, meaning that monetary aggregates and credit targets are being used as intermediate targets of monetary policy. An econometric exercise limited to Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia) has been conducted to analyse the potential scenarios of convergence and monetary policy coordination. Given the high structural heterogeneity and the slow pace of real convergence due to weak commercial integration in the Maghreb, results nevertheless show alternative dynamics in the integration of effective nominal exchange rates, as well as a complete convergence dynamic in exchange rate policies. Partial convergence of monetary policies regarding the stabilisation of inflation rates remains an open option for a transitional phase where financial integration is low

Interaction entre IDE, productivité et capital humain - Cas des industries manufacturières tunisiennes

Interaction entre IDE, productivité et capital humain - Cas des industries manufacturières tunisiennes

Dynamique des investissements, mutations sectorielles et convertibilité du compte de capital : impacts des mesures de libéralisation et expériences comparées Tunisie - Maroc

Morocco and Tunisia are performing in term of economic growth better than the average economic growth of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and middle-income countries. Tremendous efforts in terms of reforms and restructuring of the economy have been deployed in the early 80s. The outcomes of theses efforts start to make their fruit: limited inflation, controlled public deficits, and cautious exchange rate policy. In brief, the macroeconomic environment has been substantially improved. Both countries are also traditions of well anchored opening, in particular towards the old continent, as evidenced by their opening rates. This openness has increased with the signing of a multitude of partnership agreements of which the most important mattering is the one which concerns the free trade area with the EU on the horizon 2010-1012. These advances are important, but they must not ignore the inherent obstacles to growth and development of both countries. Without being comprehensive, external debts remain a source concern, especially in the case of Tunisia. Similarly, the quality of human resources, especially in terms of middle managers, is lacking. The policies of R & D and innovation are still in their infant stage. At least, many similarities exist between the two countries, but it should be noted that Morocco and Tunisia are not on the same growth path. Thus, wealth per capita in Tunisia is twice Morocco one. The aim of this study is to identify the strengths on which Morocco and Tunisia may rely to build their growth on solid and sustainable growth. We have identified two. One is based on a change management more flexible than current practice the two countries. The second concerns the effects of FDI on productivity. In a third time, we try to link the two leverage factors; in order to determine the impact of exchange rate policies on flows of FDI (and productivity). The originality of our approach lies to two levels: Concerning the relationship FDI - exchange rate policy, we propose a misalignment estimate, which is defined as the deviation of the real exchange rate relative to its equilibrium value. Unlike volatility, the distortion of the real exchange rate can have a much greater impact on the economies of small countries like Morocco and Tunisia. Indeed, steady deviations from the real exchange rate with regard to its trend of balance modify the internal relative prices and lead important costs of adjustment. These distortions can create at least four important phenomena of imbalance Indeed, continuous deviations of real exchange rate from its equilibrium modify the relative internal prices and induce important adjustment costs. These distortions may lead at least to four important phenomena of imbalance: i) external imbalance leading to a crisis of exchange, ii) an effect of deindustrialization followed by weak growth over a long period, iii) inflationary pressures and iv) protectionist pressures that tend to persist. The misalignment will be put in relations with the FDI flows in both countries. As for the methodological and in order to capture the effects of FDI on productivity, we estimate a production function using the approach proposed by Olley and Pakes (1996). The latter corrects the simultaneity bias due to the correlation between unobservable shocks of productivity and production factors. Finally, we propose recommendations with sector profiling and refocused specializations of the two countries

Macroeconomic and Financial Crisis Management in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean: Diagnosis and Prospects. CEPS Paperbacks. December 2013

The global financial crisis, which started in the summer of 2007 and deepened in the aftermath of the Lehman failure in September 2008, has led to a virtual collapse in economic activity and increased financial volatility worldwide. For the developing countries, the main channel of transmission has been a drop in external transactions, such as trade, financial and capital flows, and remittances. The emerging economies in the southern and eastern Mediterranean have also faced declining economic activity, although there seems to be considerable variation in the relative magnitude and timing. Most of these economies have shown a delayed but more lasting response to the crisis, driven mostly by their close trade and investment ties with the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. This book explores the fiscal, monetary and financial effects of the crisis in the region and provides an in-depth analysis of the fiscal, monetary and banking policies in the post-crisis era, the viability of their exit strategies and the future of reforms in the region. These analyses not only provide a comprehensive comparison between the countries but also provide a solid basis for assessing future economic and financial developments and reforms in the region

Dynamique des investissements, mutations sectorielles et convertibilité du compte de capital : impacts des mesures de libéralisation et expériences comparées Tunisie - Maroc

Morocco and Tunisia are performing in term of economic growth better than the average economic growth of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and middle-income countries. Tremendous efforts in terms of reforms and restructuring of the economy have been deployed in the early 80s. The outcomes of theses efforts start to make their fruit: limited inflation, controlled public deficits, and cautious exchange rate policy. In brief, the macroeconomic environment has been substantially improved. Both countries are also traditions of well anchored opening, in particular towards the old continent, as evidenced by their opening rates. This openness has increased with the signing of a multitude of partnership agreements of which the most important mattering is the one which concerns the free trade area with the EU on the horizon 2010-1012. These advances are important, but they must not ignore the inherent obstacles to growth and development of both countries. Without being comprehensive, external debts remain a source concern, especially in the case of Tunisia. Similarly, the quality of human resources, especially in terms of middle managers, is lacking. The policies of R & D and innovation are still in their infant stage. At least, many similarities exist between the two countries, but it should be noted that Morocco and Tunisia are not on the same growth path. Thus, wealth per capita in Tunisia is twice Morocco one. The aim of this study is to identify the strengths on which Morocco and Tunisia may rely to build their growth on solid and sustainable growth. We have identified two. One is based on a change management more flexible than current practice the two countries. The second concerns the effects of FDI on productivity. In a third time, we try to link the two leverage factors; in order to determine the impact of exchange rate policies on flows of FDI (and productivity). The originality of our approach lies to two levels: Concerning the relationship FDI - exchange rate policy, we propose a misalignment estimate, which is defined as the deviation of the real exchange rate relative to its equilibrium value. Unlike volatility, the distortion of the real exchange rate can have a much greater impact on the economies of small countries like Morocco and Tunisia. Indeed, steady deviations from the real exchange rate with regard to its trend of balance modify the internal relative prices and lead important costs of adjustment. These distortions can create at least four important phenomena of imbalance Indeed, continuous deviations of real exchange rate from its equilibrium modify the relative internal prices and induce important adjustment costs. These distortions may lead at least to four important phenomena of imbalance: i) external imbalance leading to a crisis of exchange, ii) an effect of deindustrialization followed by weak growth over a long period, iii) inflationary pressures and iv) protectionist pressures that tend to persist. The misalignment will be put in relations with the FDI flows in both countries. As for the methodological and in order to capture the effects of FDI on productivity, we estimate a production function using the approach proposed by Olley and Pakes (1996). The latter corrects the simultaneity bias due to the correlation between unobservable shocks of productivity and production factors. Finally, we propose recommendations with sector profiling and refocused specializations of the two countries

"Le rôle des marchés monétaire et financier dans le cadre de la zone "Euro" Analyse comparative du Maroc, de la Tunisie, de la Turquie et d'Israël

International audienc

Interaction entre IDE, productivité et capital humain Cas des industries manufacturières tunisiennes

L’objet de cet article est d’évaluer l’impact de la présence étrangère sur la productivité des entreprises tunisiennes. Cette analyse sera effectuée sur la base d’un panel d’entreprises manufacturières tunisiennes couvrant la période 1998-2004 issu de l’enquête annuelle des entreprises réalisée par l’Institut National de la Statistique en Tunisie. La méthode d'estimation des paramètres de la fonction de production retenue dans cette étude relève de l’approche proposée par Olley et Pakes (1996) en réponse au biais de simultanéité du à la corrélation instantanée qui existe entre les chocs de productivités inobservables et les facteurs de production. Nos résultats montrent que la présence étrangère a un effet négatif sur la productivité des entreprises tunisiennes. Certains auteurs attribuent cet effet négatif à une faible capacité d'absorption technologique des firmes locales . Nous avons cherché à tester cette hypothèse. Ainsi, l'effet spillover devient-il fonction de la capacité d'absorption. Selon nos estimations, l'effet spillover devient de plus en plus important au fur et à mesure que la firme se rapproche de la courbe d'efficience et devient positif lorsque sa capacité d'adaptation dépasse un certain seuil. Ce résultat implique que la présence étrangère dans un secteur peut s'avérer bénéfique pour les entreprises dotées de fortes capacités d'absorption