Low-wage jobs - stepping stones or just bad signals?

"This study investigates how the effects of low-wage employment and non-employment on wage prospects vary depending on qualification. We apply dynamic multinomial logit models with random effects and include interactions of the lagged labor market state with qualification to estimate heterogeneity in state dependence. We find that low-wage jobs are stepping stones to high-paid jobs for low qualified workers. In contrast, the chances of workers with a university degree to obtain a high-paid job are the same when being low-paid or non-employed (whereas their risk of non-employment is lower when having a low-paid job). Furthermore, our results suggest that for workers with university degree low-wage jobs are associated with negative signals." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Niedriglohn, Niedrigqualifizierte, Hochqualifizierte, Hochschulabsolventen, Nichterwerbstätigkeit, Lohnhöhe, Einkommenserwartung, berufliche Mobilität, Qualifikationsniveau, Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien

Low-wage employment versus unemployment: which one provides better prospects for women?

This study analyzes state dependence in low-wage employment of western German women using GSOEP data, 2000-2006. We estimate dynamic multinomial logit models with random effects and find that having a low-wage job increases the probability of being low-paid and decreases the chances of being high-paid in the future, in particular for low-paid women working part-time. However, concerning future wage prospects low-paid women are clearly better off than unemployed or inactive women. We argue that for women low-wage jobs can serve as stepping stones out of unemployment and are to be preferred to staying unemployed and waiting for a better job. -- Mit Daten des Sozio-ökonomischen Panels für 2000-2006 untersucht diese Studie die Wahrscheinlichkeit westdeutscher Frauen, in Niedriglohnbeschäftigungen zu verbleiben ("state dependence"). Wir schätzen dynamische multinomiale Logit-Modelle mit zufälligen Effekten und finden, dass ein Niedriglohnjob die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Niedriglohntätigkeit in der Zukunft erhöht und die Chancen auf einen Hochlohnjob verringert. Dies gilt insbesondere für geringverdienende Frauen, die Teilzeit arbeiten. Allerdings sind die Aussichten bezüglich künftiger Löhne für Frauen in Niedriglohntätigkeiten deutlich besser als für solche, die arbeitslos oder inaktiv sind. Wir folgern daraus, dass für Frauen Niedriglohnjobs als Sprungbrett aus der Arbeitslosigkeit dienen können und dass sie eine bessere Alternative darstellen als arbeitslos zu bleiben und auf bessere Arbeitsplatzangebote zu warten.low-pay dynamics,state dependence,dynamic multinomial logit model

Low-wage employment versus unemployment: which one provides better prospects for women?

This study analyzes state dependence in low-wage employment of western German women using GSOEP data, 2000-2006. We estimate dynamic multinomial logit models with random effects and find that having a low-wage job increases the probability of being low-paid and decreases the chances of being high-paid in the future, in particular for low-paid women working part-time. However, concerning future wage prospects low-paid women are clearly better off than unemployed or inactive women. We argue that for women low-wage jobs can serve as stepping stones out of unemployment and are to be preferred to staying unemployed and waiting for a better job. -- Mit Daten des Sozio-ökonomischen Panels für 2000-2006 untersucht diese Studie die Wahrscheinlichkeit westdeutscher Frauen, in Niedriglohnbeschäftigungen zu verbleiben (state dependence). Wir schätzen dynamische multinomiale Logit-Modelle mit zufälligen Effekten und finden, dass ein Niedriglohnjob die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Niedriglohntätigkeit in der Zukunft erhöht und die Chancen auf einen Hochlohnjob verringert. Dies gilt insbesondere für geringverdienende Frauen, die Teilzeit arbeiten. Allerdings sind die Aussichten bezüglich künftiger Löhne für Frauen in Niedriglohntätigkeiten deutlich besser als für solche, die arbeitslos oder inaktiv sind. Wir folgern daraus, dass für Frauen Niedriglohnjobs als Sprungbrett aus der Arbeitslosigkeit dienen können und dass sie eine bessere Alternative darstellen als arbeitslos zu bleiben und auf bessere Arbeitsplatzangebote zu warten.low-pay dynamics,state dependence,dynamic multinomial logit model

Low-Wage Employment versus Unemployment: Which One Provides Better Prospects for Women?

This study analyzes state dependence in low-wage employment of western German women using GSOEP data, 2000-2006. We estimate dynamic multinomial logit models with random effects and find that having a low-wage job increases the probability of being low-paid and decreases the chances of being high-paid in the future, in particular for low-paid women working part-time. However, concerning future wage prospects low-paid women are clearly better off than unemployed or inactive women. We argue that for women low-wage jobs can serve as stepping stones out of unemployment and are to be preferred to staying unemployed and waiting for a better job.low-pay dynamics, state dependence, dynamic multinomial logit model

Low-Wage Careers: Are There Dead-End Firms and Dead-End Jobs?

Using representative linked employer-employee data of the German Federal Employment Agency, this paper shows that just one out of seven full-time employees who earned low wages (i.e. less than two-thirds of the median wage) in 1998/99 was able to earn wages above the low-wage threshold in 2003. Bivariate probit estimations with endogenous selection indicate that upward wage mobility is higher for younger and better qualified low-wage earners, whereas women are substantially less successful. We show that the characteristics of the employing firm also matter for low-wage earners' probability of escaping low-paid work. In particular small plants and plants with a high share of low-wage earners often seem to be dead ends for low-wage earners. The likelihood of leaving the low-wage sector is also low when staying in unskilled and skilled service occupations and in unskilled commercial and administrational occupations. Consequently, leaving these dead-end plants and occupations appears to be an important instrument for achieving wages above the low-wage threshold.Germany, low-wage employment, wage mobility

Low-wage careers: are there dead-end firms and dead-end jobs?

Using representative linked employer-employee data of the German Federal Employment Agency, this paper shows that just one out of seven full-time employees who earned low wages (i.e. less than two-thirds of the median wage) in 1998/99 was able to earn wages above the low-wage threshold in 2003. Bivariate probit estimations with endogenous selection indicate that upward wage mobility is higher for younger and better qualified low-wage earners, whereas women are substantially less successful. We show that the characteristics of the employing firm also matter for low-wage earners' probability of escaping low-paid work. In particular small plants and plants with a high share of low-wage earners often seem to be dead ends for low-wage earners. The likelihood of leaving the low-wage sector is also low when staying in unskilled and skilled service occupations and in unskilled commercial and administrational occupations. Consequently, leaving these dead-end plants and occupations appears to be an important instrument for achieving wages above the low-wage threshold. -- Mit repräsentativen verbundenen Arbeitgeber-Arbeitnehmer-Daten der Bundesagentur für Arbeit verdeutlicht diese Studie, dass nur jeder siebte Vollzeitbeschäftigte, der 1998/99 einen Niedriglohn (von weniger als zwei Dritteln des Medianlohns) bezog, bis 2003 den Niedriglohnsektor verlassen konnte. Bivariate Probit-Schätzungen mit endogener Selektion deuten darauf hin, dass die Aufwärtsmobilität für jüngere und besser qualifizierte Geringverdiener höher ausfällt, wohingegen Frauen deutlich weniger erfolgreich sind. Wir zeigen, dass auch die Merkmale des Beschäftigungsbetriebes die Aufstiegswahrscheinlichkeit beeinflussen. Insbesondere kleinere Betriebe und solche mit einem hohen Anteil von Niedriglohnbeschäftigten scheinen häufig Sackgassen für Geringverdiener darzustellen. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, den Niedriglohnsektor zu verlassen, ist ferner relativ gering, wenn man in bestimmten (meist weniger qualifizierten) Jobs verharrt. Die Abwanderung aus solchen Betrieben und Beschäftigungen, die Sackgassen darstellen, dürfte deshalb ein wichtiges Mittel sein, um höhere Löhne zu erzielen.low-wage employment,wage mobility,Germany

The dynamics of welfare entry and exit among natives and immigrants

Abstract This paper studies welfare entry and exit in Germany and determines the relevance of state dependence for natives and immigrants. Based on dynamic multinomial logit estimations, we calculate transition matrices between three labor market states. We find that temporal persistence in welfare participation can mostly be explained by observed and unobserved characteristics. Immigrants appear to have a higher risk of welfare entry and a lower probability of welfare exit compared to natives. The results do not yield strong evidence of state dependence or of an overall welfare trap

Cytochrome P450 2B6 (CYP2B6) and constitutive androstane receptor (CAR) polymorphisms are associated with early discontinuation of efavirenz-containing regimens

Objectives Cytochrome P450 2B6 (CYP2B6) is responsible for the metabolic clearance of efavirenz and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the CYP2B6 gene are associated with efavirenz pharmacokinetics. Since the constitutive androstane receptor (CAR) and the pregnane X receptor (PXR) correlate with CYP2B6 in liver, and a CAR polymorphism (rs2307424) and smoking correlate with efavirenz plasma concentrations, we investigated their association with early (<3 months) discontinuation of efavirenz therapy. Methods Three hundred and seventy-three patients initiating therapy with an efavirenz-based regimen were included (278 white patients and 95 black patients; 293 male). DNA was extracted from whole blood and genotyping for CYP2B6 (516G → T, rs3745274), CAR (540C → T, rs2307424) and PXR (44477T → C, rs1523130; 63396C → T, rs2472677; and 69789A → G, rs763645) was conducted. Binary logistic regression using the backwards method was employed to assess the influence of SNPs and demographics on early discontinuation. Results Of the 373 patients, 131 withdrew from therapy within the first 3 months. Black ethnicity [odds ratio (OR) = 0.27; P = 0.0001], CYP2B6 516TT (OR = 2.81; P = 0.006), CAR rs2307424 CC (OR = 1.92; P = 0.007) and smoking status (OR = 0.45; P = 0.002) were associated with discontinuation within 3 months. Conclusions These data indicate that genetic variability in CYP2B6 and CAR contributes to early treatment discontinuation for efavirenz-based antiretroviral regimens. Further studies are now required to define the clinical utility of these association

The effect of events between waves on panel attrition

"Panel surveys suffer from attrition. Most panel studies use propensity models or weighting class approaches to correct for non-random dropout. These models draw on variables measured in a previous wave or from paradata of the study. While it is plausible that they affect contactability and cooperativeness, panel studies usually cannot assess the impact of events between waves on attrition. The amount of change in the population could be seriously underestimated if such events had an effect on participation in subsequent waves. The panel study PASS is a novel dataset for labour market and poverty research. In PASS, survey data on (un)employment histories, income and education of participants are linked to corresponding data from respondents' administrative records. Thus, change can be observed for attritors as well as for continued participants. These data are used to show that change in household composition, employment status or receipt of benefits has an influence on contact and cooperation rates in the following wave. A large part of the effect is due to lower contactability of households who moved. Nevertheless, this effect can lead to biased estimates for the amount of change. After applying the survey's longitudinal weights this bias is reduced, but not entirely eliminated." (author's abstract

Low-wage careers: Are there dead-end firms and dead-end jobs?

"Using representative linked employer-employee data of the German Federal Employment Agency, this paper shows that just one out of seven full-time employees who earned low wages (i.e., less than two-thirds of the median wage) in 1998/99 was able to earn wages above the low-wage threshold in 2003. Bivariate probit estimations with endogenous selection indicate that upward wage mobility is higher for younger and better qualified low-wage earners, whereas women are substantially less successful. We show that the characteristics of the employing firm also matter for low-wage earners' probability of escaping low-paid work. In particular, small plants and plants with a high share of low-wage earners often seem to be dead ends for low-wage earners. The likelihood of leaving the low-wage sector is also low when staying in unskilled and skilled service occupations and in unskilled commercial and administrative occupations. Consequently, leaving these dead-end plants and occupations appears to be an important instrument for achieving wages above the low-wage threshold." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))IAB-Linked-Employer-Employee-Datensatz, Niedriglohn, berufliche Mobilität, Arbeitskräftemobilität, beruflicher Aufstieg, berufliche Qualifikation, geschlechtsspezifische Faktoren, Frauen, Kleinbetrieb, Geringverdiener