What Do We Really Know About the Cross-Sectional Relation Between Past and Expected Returns?

Multihorizon temporal relationships between stock returns are complex due to confounding sources of return premia, microstructure effects, and changes in the relationship over various horizons. We find the relation to be further complicated by the sign and consistency of the past return that also varies, somewhat sensibly, with the season and the tax environment. Accounting for these additional effects using a parsimonious technical trading rule generates surprisingly large abnormal returns, despite controlling for microstructure effects, transaction costs, and data-snooping biases. The documented variation in profits across stock characteristics, season, and tax environment appear inconsistent with existing theory, but may point to future explanations for the relation between past and expected returns.

Bank Mergers and Crime: The Real and Social Effects of Credit Market Competition

Using a unique sample of commercial loans and mergers between large banks, we provide microlevel (within-county) evidence linking credit conditions to economic development and find a spillover effect on crime. Neighborhoods that experienced more bank mergers are subjected to higher interest rates, diminished local construction, lower prices, an influx of poorer households, and higher property crime in subsequent years. The elasticity of property crime with respect to merger-induced banking concentration is 0.18. We show that these results are not likely due to reverse causation, and confirm the central findings using state branching deregulation to instrument for bank competition.

Informal Financial Networks: Theory and Evidence

We develop a model of informal financial networks and present corroborating evidence by studying the role of professional property brokers in the U.S. commercial real estate market. Our model demonstrates how service intermediaries, who do not supply finance themselves, can facilitate their clients' access to finance via repeated informal relationships with lenders. Empirically, we find that, controlling for endogenous broker selection, hiring a broker strikingly increases the probability of obtaining a bank loan from 40 to 58 percent. Our results demonstrate that even in the U.S., with its well-developed capital markets, informal networks play an important role in controlling access to finance.

The Political Economy of Financial Regulation: Evidence from U.S. State Usury Laws in the 19th Century

We investigate the causes and consequences of financial regulation by studying the political economy of U.S. state usury laws in the 19th century. We find evidence that usury laws were binding and enforced and that lending activity was affected by rate ceilings. Exploiting the heterogeneity across states and time in regulation, enforcement, and market conditions, we find that regulation tightens when it is less costly and when it coexists with other economic and political restrictions that exclude certain groups. Furthermore, the same determinants of financial regulation that favor one group (and restrict others) are associated with higher (lower) future economic growth rates. The evidence suggests regulation is the outcome of private interests using the coercive power of the state to extract rents from other groups, highlighting the endogeneity of financial development and growth.

Confronting Information Asymmetries: Evidence from Real Estate Markets

This paper studies the role of asymmetric information in commercial real estate markets in the U.S. We propose a novel and exogenous measure of information based on the quality of property tax assessments in different regions. Employing direct and indirect information variables, we find strong evidence that information considerations are significant in this market. We show that market participants resolve information asymmetries by purchasing nearby properties, trading properties with long income histories, and avoiding transactions with informed professional brokers. The evidence that the choice of financing is used to address information concerns is mixed and weak.

Do Liquidation Values Affect Financial Contracts? Evidence from Commercial Loan Contracts and Zoning Regulation

We examine the impact of asset liquidation value on debt contracting using a unique set of commercial property non-recourse loan contracts. We employ commercial zoning regulation to capture the flexibility of a property's permitted uses as a measure of an asset's redeployability or value in its next best use. Within a census tract, more redeployable assets receive larger loans with longer maturities and durations, lower interest rates, and fewer creditors, controlling for the current value of the property, its type, and neighborhood. These results are consistent with incomplete contracting and transaction cost theories of liquidation value and financial structure.

The Effects of Stock Lending on Security Prices: An Experiment

Working with a sizeable, anonymous money manager, we randomly make available for lending two-thirds of the high-loan fee stocks in the manager’s portfolio and withhold the other third to produce an exogenous shock to loan supply. We implement the lending experiment in two independent phases: the first, from September 5 to 18, 2008, with over $580 million of securities lent; and the second, from June 5 to September 30, 2009, with over$250 million of securities lent. The supply shocks are sizeable and significantly reduce lending fees, but returns, volatility, skewness, and bid-ask spreads remain unaffected. Results are consistent across both phases of the experiment and indicate no adverse effects from securities lending on stock prices.