Longevity and Lifetime Labor Input: Data and Implications

Recent growth theories have utilized the Ben-Porath (1967) mechanism according to which prolonging the period in which individuals may receive returns on their investment spurs investment in human capital and cause growth. An important, though sometime implicit implication of these models is that total labor input over the lifetime increases as longevity does. We propose a thought experiment to empirically evaluate the relevancy of this mechanism to the transition from “stagnation” to “growth” of the nowadays developed economies. Specifically, we estimate the expected total working hours over the lifetime of nine consecutive cohorts of American men born between 1840 and 1920. Our results show that despite a gain of almost 9 years in the expectations of life at age 20, the expected total working hours over the lifetime have declined from more than 117,000 hours to less than 90,000 between the oldest and the youngest cohorts. We conclude that the Ben-Porath mechanism have had a lesser effect than previously thought on the accumulation of human capital during the growth process.longevity, human capital, hours-worked

Longevity and Hours over the Lifetime: Data and Implications

Recent growth papers have utilized the Ben-Porath 1967 mechanism according to which prolonging the period in which individuals may receive returns on their investment spurs investment in human capital and cause growth. Implicitly, one implication of these models is that total labor input over the lifetime increases as longevity does. We propose a thought experiment to empirically evaluate the relevancy of this mechanism to the transition from "stagnation" to "growth" of the nowadays developed economies. Specifically, we estimate the expected working hours over the lifetime of ten consecutive cohorts of American men born between 1850 and 1940. Our results show that despite a gain of almost 11 years in the expectations of life at age 20, the expected working hours over the lifetime have declined from more than 125,000 hours to less than 100,000 between the oldest and the youngest cohorts. We conclude that the Ben-Porath mechanism have had a lesser effect than previously thought on the accumulation of human capital during the growth processlongevity, Hours, education, growth

Does Longevity Cause Growth

This article challenges conventional wisdom by arguing that greater longevity cannot explain the significant accumulation of human capital during the transition from stagnation to growth. This is because greater longevity raises children's future income proportionally at all levels of education, leaving the relative return between quality and quantity unaffected. This result is consistent with historical evidence that longevity began to increase long before education did. Our theory also casts doubts on recent findings about a positive effect of health on education. This is because health raises the marginal return on quality and quantity, resulting in an ambiguous effect on the accumulation of human capital. We conclude that longevity and health have had a minor effect, if any, on the transition from stagnation to growth via investment in education.longevity, health, fertility, education

Child Labor, Fertility and Economic Growth

This paper explores the evolution of child labor, fertility, and human capital in the process of development. In early stages of development the economy is in a development trap where child labor is abundant, fertility is high and output per capita is low. Technological progress, however, increases gradually the wage differential between parental and child labor, thereby inducing parents to substitute child education for child labor and reduce fertility. The economy takes-off to a sustained growth steady-state equilibrium where child labor is abolished and fertility is low. Prohibition of child labor expedites the transition process and generates Pareto dominating outcome.

WOMEN’S LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND THE DYNAMICS OF TRADITION

We present a model in which the social norms regarding women’s labor force participation (LFP) differ from the norms concerning men’s. Assuming that these norms depend on past rates of women LFP creates a gradual increase in women LFP.

The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis

We argue that one major cause of the U.S. postwar baby boom was the rise in female labor supply during WorldWar II. We develop a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous fertility and female labor force participation decisions. We use the model to assess the impact of the war on female labor supply and fertility in the decades following the war. For the war generation of women, the high demand for female labor brought about by mobilization leads to an increase in labor supply that persists after the war. As a result, younger women who reach adulthood in the 1950s face increased labor market competition, which impels them to exit the labor market and start having children earlier. The effect is amplified by the rise in taxes necessary to pay down wartime government debt. In our calibrated model, the war generates a substantial baby boom followed by a baby bust.

The Baby Boom and World War II: The Role of Labor Market Experience

The past century has witnessed major changes in the economic choices of American women. Over the long term, there has been a marked trend towards lower fertility and higher female labor force participation. However, change did not occur in a uniform fashion: during the post-war Baby Boom, fertility rates increased substantially, until the long-term downward trend reestablished itself in the 1960s. Similarly, the labor market participation of younger women declined for a while during the same period. What can explain these reversals? In this paper, we propose a joint explanation for these changes through a single shock: the demand for female labor during World War II. Many of the women of the war generation continued to work after the war. We argue that this crowded out younger women from the labor market, who chose to have more children instead.

From Duty to Right: The Role of Public Education in the Transition to Aging Societies

This paper argues that the introduction of compulsory schooling in early industrialization promoted the growth process that eventually led to a vicious cycle of population aging and negative pressure on education policy. In the early phases of industrialization, public education was undesirable for the young poor who relied on child labor. Compulsory schooling therefore discouraged childbirth, while the accompanying industrialization stimulated their demand for education. The subsequent rise in the share of the old population, however, limited government resources for education, placing heavier financial burdens on the young. This induced further fertility decline and population aging, and the resulting cycle may have delayed the growth of advanced economies in the last few decades