Left, Right, Left: Income and Political Dynamics in Transition Economies

The political left turn in Latin America, which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more, challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior. While the implications of upward mobility for the political preferences of forward-looking voters have been studied, neither the upward mobility model nor conventional myopic median voter models are well equipped to explain Latin America's political transformation. This paper generalizes the forward-looking voter model to consider a broad range of dynamic processes. When voters have full information on the nature of income dynamics in a transition economy, we show that strong support for redistributive policies will materialize rapidly if income dynamics offer few prospects of upward mobility for key sections of the electorate. In contrast, when voters have imperfect information, our model predicts a slow and politically polarizing shift toward redistributive voter preferences under these same non-concave income dynamics. Simulation using fitted income dynamics for two Latin American economies suggests that the imperfect information model better accounts for the observed shift back to the left in Latin America, and that this generalized, forward-looking voter approach may offer additional insights about political dynamics in other transition economies.income dynamics, redistributive politics, polarization, Bayesian learning, Latin America

Computational Methods for OI-Modules

Computational commutative algebra has become an increasingly popular area of research. Central to the theory is the notion of a Gröbner basis, which may be thought of as a nonlinear generalization of Gaussian elimination. In 2019, Nagel and Römer introduced FI- and OI-modules over FI- and OI-algebras, which provide a framework for studying sequences of related modules defined over sequences of related polynomial rings. In particular, they laid the foundations of a theory of Gröbner bases for certain classes of OI-modules. In this dissertation we develop an OI-analog of Buchberger\u27s algorithm in order to compute such Gröbner bases, as well as an OI-analog of Schreyer\u27s theorem to compute their modules of syzygies. We also give an application of our results to the computation of free OI-resolutions, and showcase our Macaulay2 package OIGroebnerBases.m2\u27\u27 which implements these constructions. Lastly, we show how our results can be tweaked to compute free FI-resolutions

FRANCE AND THE UNITED KINGDOM: FACTORS INFLUENCING POSITIONS ON MULTILATERAL NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL

Following the demise of several critical U.S.-Russian bilateral treaties, the world now faces the most consequential nuclear arms-control crisis in decades. If the desired end goal is to move toward global disarmament, France and the U.K. have several economic, political, and military avenues they could pursue. This thesis analyzes British and French positions on nuclear arms-control and seeks to identify what has precluded them from entering into meaningful discussions. This thesis considers nuclear policies, statistics, official records, publications, and previous case studies on third-party arms control. At this time, there is little optimism for France and the U.K. to have a significant impact on multilateral arms-control negotiations. There are many geopolitical, economic, and security dilemmas that are currently hindering a breakthrough in negotiations, and a disparity in the number of nuclear weapons possessed between the U.S. and Russia and all other nuclear weapons states is an impasse that hinders European nuclear weapon states. Additionally, there is a strong sense of nuclear nationalism inherent to both nations that precludes them from initiating disarmament measures. Achieving meaningful multilateral arms control must begin with small, mutually reinforcing, and incremental measures. Promoting a multilateral forum to increase transparency and build confidence would set the stage for more ambitious and meaningful multilateral measures in the future.Outstanding ThesisLieutenant, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

The Political Economy of Inclusive Rural Growth

Commentators on the ‘East Asian Miracle’ of inclusive rural growth have often pointed toward shared growth policies. But why were these policies not chosen elsewhere? This paper shows that economies with a stronger middle class may sustain higher productivity through public good provision. We model voters who invest in either subsistence or technologies in which public goods complement private capital. Investment and technology choices vary with wealth and the level of public goods enforced by political lobbies. We show that increased productive possibilities, such as those of an emerging middle class, can further power reforms when money matters in politics

Left, right, left: income and political dynamics in transition economies

The political left turn in Latin America, which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more, challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior. While the implications of upward mobility for the political preferences of forward-looking voters have been studied, neither the upward mobility model nor conventional myopic median voter models are well equipped to explain Latin America’s political transformation. This paper generalizes the forward-looking voter model to consider a broad range of dynamic processes. When voters have full information on the nature of income dynamics in a transition economy, we show that strong support for redistributive policies will materialize rapidly if income dynamics offer few prospects of upward mobility for key sections of the electorate. In contrast, when voters have imperfect information, our model predicts a slow and politically polarizing shift toward redistributive voter preferences under these same non-concave income dynamics. Simulation using fitted income dynamics for two Latin American economies suggests that the imperfect information model better accounts for the observed shift back to the left in Latin America, and that this generalized, forward-looking voter approach may offer additional insights about political dynamics in other transition economies

Model Block Press

The Center for Vocational Building Technology came to the Mechanical Engineering department at Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo with a project to create a new, less expensive model block press than their current BP9 design. This press would produce ¼ scale model compressed earth blocks to be sold as souvenirs and used in demonstrations for constructing buildings. After analyzing the design of the current block presses, JCM came up with the BP10 design. The BP10 operates similarly to the larger block presses, but will cost significantly less to produce and will have some of the design features enhanced to make it easier to use

Federal Listing of Prairie Grouse: Lessons from the Attwater’s Prairie Chicken

Considerable controversy has often surrounded proposals to confer official status (i.e., list) species under the authority of the Endangered Species Act (ESA) of 1973 as amended or its precursors. Recent proposals to list the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), the western sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus phaios), and the Gunnison sage grouse (C. minimus) were met with strong opposition by those concerned with prospects of an increased regulatory environment associated with such an action. The Attwater\u27s prairie-chicken (T. cupido attwateri) was one of the first species listed under The Endangered Species Conservation Act of 1966, the first federal effort to specifically protect endangered species. Federal listing benefited the Attwater\u27s by raising awareness of its status and by authorizing additional sources of funding for its management. While concern over an increased regulatory environment associated with the endangered status of the Attwater\u27s probably has always existed among property owners and land managers, conflicts involving this bird have been few and local in scope. Maintaining good working relationships and respect for all affected interests, including property owners and land managers, has been paramount in Attwater\u27s recovery efforts. However, these efforts at times have been hampered by lightning-rod issues pertaining to other species. Despite 35 years of ESA protection, the Attwater\u27s prairie-chicken remains perilously close to extinction. Based on these experiences, federal listing should be viewed neither as a panacea nor as a demon, but rather as a tool in species recovery

Political legitimacy in decisions about experiments in solar radiation management

Some types of solar radiation management (SRM) research are ethically problematic because they expose persons, animals, and ecosystems to significant risks. In our earlier work, we argued for ethical norms for SRM research based on norms for biomedical research. Biomedical researchers may not conduct research on persons without their consent, but universal consent is impractical for SRM research. We argue that instead of requiring universal consent, ethical norms for SRM research require only political legitimacy in decision-making about global SRM trials. Using Allen Buchanan & Robert Keohane's model of global political legitimacy, we examine several existing global institutions as possible analogues for a politically legitimate SRM decision-making body