FIRE PROTECTION ALTERNATIVES FOR RURAL AREAS

Community/Rural/Urban Development,

On "Sexual contacts and epidemic thresholds," models and inference for Sexual partnership distributions

Recent work has focused attention on statistical inference for the population distribution of the number of sexual partners based on survey data. The characteristics of these distributions are of interest as components of mathematical models for the transmission dynamics of sexually-transmitted diseases (STDs). Such information can be used both to calibrate theoretical models, to make predictions for real populations, and as a tool for guiding public health policy. Our previous work on this subject has developed likelihood-based statistical methods for inference that allow for low-dimensional, semi-parametric models. Inference has been based on several proposed stochastic process models for the formation of sexual partnership networks. We have also developed model selection criteria to choose between competing models, and assessed the fit of different models to three populations: Uganda, Sweden, and the USA. Throughout this work, we have emphasized the correct assessment of the uncertainty of the estimates based on the data analyzed. We have also widened the question of interest to the limitations of inferences from such data, and the utility of degree-based epidemiological models more generally. In this paper we address further statistical issues that are important in this area, and a number of confusions that have arisen in interpreting our work. In particular, we consider the use of cumulative lifetime partner distributions, heaping and other issues raised by Liljeros et al. in a recent working paper.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures in linked working pape

Evaluating complex digital resources

Squires (1999) discussed the gap between HCI (Human Computer Interaction) and the educational computing communities in their very different approaches to evaluating educational software. This paper revisits that issue in the context of evaluating digital resources, focusing on two approaches to evaluation: an HCI and an educational perspective. Squires and Preece's HCI evaluation model is a predictive model ‐ it helps teachers decide whether or not to use educational software ‐ whilst our own concern is in evaluating the use of learning technologies. It is suggested that in part the different approaches of the two communities relate to the different focus that each takes: in HCI the focus is typically on development and hence usability, whilst in education the concern is with the learner and teacher use

Fire protection services for rural Tennessee communities : a benefit-cost analysis

Little attention has been given to the provision of fire services in most rural Tennessee areas, where these services are virtually nonexistence or severely inadequate. Recognizing this problem of inadequate fire protection services in the rural areas, this study was undertaken with the following objectives: (1) to review the fire protection services available in the rural areas of Tennessee; (2) to obtain information on the need for fire protection services for rural residents and for businesses and institutions in rural areas; and (3) to develop fire protection service alternatives for rural areas which would provide for different levels of fire protection. Several agencies which have fire prevention and protection responsibilities within the state government were investigated to determine the impact or potential impact they could have on the delivery of rural fire prevention and protection services. The fire services offered by the municipalities of Putnam and White counties, which were selected for specific study, were reviewed. The two principal functions of the Insurance Services Office—the grading of municipalities on their fire defenses and the establishing of fire insurance rates—were reviewed. The legal framework for providing county-wide fire prevention and protection services was also examined. Data for accomplishing objectives two and three were collected by means of two rural surveys and numerous interviews with officials and persons associated with fire protection services. No fire insurance coverage or the lack of fire insurance coverage and the estimated fire losses for rural structures and contents were used to reflect the need for fire protection services. The results indicated that many rural property owners in Putnam and White counties do not have adequate fire insurance coverage or have no fire insurance coverage. Data on adjusted fire insurance premiums together with state-wide fire loss ratios were used to estimate annual fire losses for the two counties. The results indicated that almost 50 percent of the estimated fire losses were not covered by fire insurance. To provide for different levels of fire protection, three alternatives (the minimum service alternative, the insurance reduction alternative, and the full service alternative) were analyzed. Six options were considered under the first two alternatives. The full service alternative was developed with changes in the water system. A method of estimating fire loss savings was devised which made use of the estimated fire loss data and data collected from fire chiefs. Fire loss savings were estimated for all three alternatives. In addition, fire insurance premium savings were estimated for the insurance reduction alternative and the full service alternative. The initial outlay costs and the annual operating costs were estimated for each of the counties separately and for the counties combined (except for the full service alternative). Benefit/cost ratios and the present values of the net benefits were calculated for all the options under the various alternatives at a 6 percent discount rate. The benefit/cost ratios were computed in order to determine which option would give the greatest amount of benefits for each dollars of costs and the present values of the net benefits were computed in order to determine which option would maximize the total net benefits (fire loss and fire insurance premium savings). This was done for each county separately and for both counties combined. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine if the recommended options of the two criteria would change. A simple location-allocation model was used to locate the fire stations needed as a result of utilizing the benefit-cost criterion. Possible fire station location sites were selected and focal or demand points were established. The site which minimized the total travel distance was considered as the one that should be selected

Deciding to move: the process and associated characteristics for rural families in Tennessee low-income areas

The people in the United States are a people on the move.During the short period of time from March 1964 to March 1965, nearly 38 million of a total of 188 million people moved from one house to another.1 The migration of individuals and families is essential to the proper functioning of the economy and moving is a necessary part of any migration. However, moving does not always involve migration in the usual sense of the term, although all migration does involve moving. Since migration is important to the economic progress of the economy and moving is a necessary part of migration, a study of the decision-making process relative to moving should be of value in the understanding of migration. The further understanding of migration should be of value in increasing the economic progress of the society

Hydrogen/nitrogen/oxygen defect complexes in silicon from computational searches

Point defect complexes in crystalline silicon composed of hydrogen, nitrogen, and oxygen atoms are studied within density-functional theory (DFT). Ab initio Random Structure Searching (AIRSS) is used to find low-energy defect structures. We find new lowest-energy structures for several defects: the triple-oxygen defect, {3O}, triple oxygen with a nitrogen atom, {N, 3O}, triple nitrogen with an oxygen atom, {3N,O}, double hydrogen and an oxygen atom, {2H,O}, double hydrogen and oxygen atoms, {2H,2O} and four hydrogen/nitrogen/oxygen complexes, {H,N,O}, {2H,N,O}, {H,2N,O} and {H,N,2O}. We find that some defects form analogous structures when an oxygen atom is replaced by a NH group, for example, {H,N,2O} and {3O}, and {H,N} and {O}. We compare defect formation energies obtained using different oxygen chemical potentials and investigate the relative abundances of the defects.Comment: 9 pages, 13 figure

Evaluation of Formal posterior distributions via Markov chain arguments

We consider evaluation of proper posterior distributions obtained from improper prior distributions. Our context is estimating a bounded function $\phi$ of a parameter when the loss is quadratic. If the posterior mean of $\phi$ is admissible for all bounded $\phi$, the posterior is strongly admissible. We give sufficient conditions for strong admissibility. These conditions involve the recurrence of a Markov chain associated with the estimation problem. We develop general sufficient conditions for recurrence of general state space Markov chains that are also of independent interest. Our main example concerns the $p$-dimensional multivariate normal distribution with mean vector $\theta$ when the prior distribution has the form $g(\|\theta\|^2) d\theta$ on the parameter space $\mathbb{R}^p$. Conditions on $g$ for strong admissibility of the posterior are provided.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOS542 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Coercion

In difficult times, political, social or economic, it is usually the case that opportunities for politicians, bureaucrats and men of power to exploit their fellow men and to threaten their liberties increase. No apology, therefore, is required to justify a re-examination of the nature of coercion, and the moral grounds, if any, for its justification. These two concerns constitute the scope of this thesis. A number of approaches are used to examine the concept of coercion and issues relating to it. These include conceptual analysis, a historical and comparative survey and evaluation of selected relevant idealist theories of freedom, a meta-ethical analysis of the logical structure of moral judgements and the origin and justification of moral principles, and a normative analysis of the bases upon which coercion might be justified in particular cases in the light of established and agreed basic moral principles. Philosophizing, which is not just analytic but prescriptive too, should not be limited to metaphyusical reasoning but grounded firmly in the empirical. The first two chapters comprise a linguistic analysis of the concept of coercion. In Chapter 1 R.F. Nozick's excessively refined concept of coercion is supplemented by the notion of coercion posited in this thesis. Whereas Nozick intentionally limits the notion of coercion to a reactive relation between two individuals thereby stressing the cause of individual liberty, it is proposed in this thesis that institutions representing the collective will of individuals may also properly be regarded as agents capable of coercing and being coerced. Additionally, it is proposed that coercion be not confined to coercion by threat, as Nozick supposes, where the individual is left with a choice of sorts, but also include coercion by irresistible physical and/or psychological force which leaves little if any choice to the victim at all. In Chapter 2 a variety of concepts relating to coercion in the context of getting a person to do or not to do something or other are analysed, and the conditions necessary for the two kinds of coercion suggested in this thesis are stipulated: coercion by threat and coercion by irrestible force. In Chapter 3 the notion of justification is introduced; the notion of coercion as the antithesis of freedom is examined; the assumed presumption in favour of freedom, which requires that coercion be justified, is explained; and negative, positive/idealist and commonsensical interpretations of the notion of social freedom are analysed. The relation of coercion to free will is noted and free will in the form of personal freedom of choice, assuming men may responsibly and dutifully choose to do things that their desires may not necessarily prompt or cause them to do, is recognised as a necessary condition in both agents in a coercive relationship. But the metaphysics of free will is not explored in detail. In Chapter 4 selected idealist theories of freedom principally from Rousseau, Hegel and Marx are compared and evaluated in the context of what might appear to be the paradoxical claim that individuals may be coerced to be free. An analysis of Christian or other theological or divine metaphysical theories as instruments of coercion in this context is noted but is not pursued in detail. The notion of personal autonomy is considered and it is suggested that on all counts, including Kantian and existentialist views of autonomy, it presents a logical barrier or limit to the extent to which the assertion may be made that a person can be forced to be free. In chapter 5 a variety of suppositions or claims of what coercion might do are eliminated on empirical and/or logical grounds, and it is argued that individuals cannot be successfully coerced to know, understand, believe, love or be moral, though it is conceded that coercive interference might be conducive to the development of such ends. Additionally, the logical possiblity of a person being able to coerce himself is questioned