Impact-based forecasting in South East Asia – what underlies impact perceptions?

The move towards impact-based forecasting presents a challenge for forecasters, who must combine information not just on what the weather might be, but also on what the weather might do. Yet different hazards and impacts are qualitatively distinct, meaning such information cannot be easily or straightforwardly integrated. The present study aimed to provide a way of characterising seemingly disparate impacts. In a collaboration between UK psychologists and partners from three meteorological organisations in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, the psychometric paradigm was employed to investigate how forecasters and stakeholders perceive weather-related impacts. Participants provided ratings of nine categories of impacts on a total of 10 characteristics, as well as providing an overall impact severity rating. Principal components analysis revealed differing component solutions across countries, which explained around 75% of the variance in perceptions. There were some similarities across all countries, with the characteristics ‘worry’ and ‘destructiveness’ loading positively together, as well as ‘likelihood of harm’ and ‘seriousness of harm’. We did not find strong evidence to indicate that forecasters and stakeholders perceive impacts in different ways. Our results highlight the complex nature of impact perceptions, which are characterised not just by objective factors such as impact scope and duration, but also subjective factors, such as worry and perceived severity

Forecasting tropical cyclone rainfall and flooding hazards and impacts

This review summarizes the rapporteur report on advances in monitoring and forecasting of rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) and its impact during 2014–18, as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs (IWTC-10) held in Bali, Indonesia during 5th – 9th December 2022. Major physical processes that can modulate TC rainfall distribution, including topography, storm motion, vertical wind shear, and intensity, along with the fundamental physics of rain bands and clouds as simulated by numerical models, diurnal variation of rainfall, and various synoptic and mesoscale features controlling the rainfall distribution are briefly discussed. Improvements to the dynamic core and physical processes in global models are providing useable forecasts nearly up to 7 days. This report also summarizes, some tools that have been developed to predict TC rainfall. Lately there is a tendency for operational forecasting centers to utilize multi-model ensemble systems for rainfall forecasting that demonstrate superior performance than individual models, ensemble members, or even single model ensembles. Major impacts include pluvial and fluvial floods, and landslides. The techniques developed by various forecasting centers to assist in predicting and communicating the impacts associated with these events are also presented in this report

Investigating the decision thresholds for impact-based warnings in South East Asia

The move towards impact-based forecasting presents a challenge for forecasters, who must combine information not just on what the weather might be, but also on what the weather might do. Such forecasts require an integration of both likelihood and impact severity information to issue a particular weather warning. The current pre-registered study focusses on forecasters' and stakeholders’ thresholds for determining the level of impact-based warnings, set in an area of the world particularly susceptible to extreme weather events. Set in the context of one hazard (heavy rainfall or river flooding), forecasters and stakeholders from Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines provided hypothetical impact-based warnings for impacts of varying likelihood. Results indicated generally good alignment with the warnings implied by previously developed impact tables. In the one country where a comparison was possible (the Philippines), we did not find evidence to suggest that forecasters and stakeholders use different thresholds for issuing warnings. We suggest that warning thresholds should be subject to regular monitoring wherever in the world an impact-based approach is used

HKROC: an integrated front-end ASIC to readout photomultiplier tubes for the Hyper-Kamiokande experiment

International audienceThe HKROC ASIC was originally designed to readout the photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) for the Hyper-Kamiokande (HK) experiment. HKROC is a very innovative ASIC capable of readout a large number of channels satisfying stringent requirements in terms of noise, speed and dynamic range. Each HKROC channel features a low-noise preamplifier and shapers, a 10-bit successive approximation Analog-to-Digital Converter (SAR-ADC) (designed by AGH Krakow) for the charge measurement (up to 2500 pC) and a Time-to-Digital Converter (TDC) (designed by CEA IRFU group) for the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) measurement with 25 ps binning. HKROC is auto-triggered and includes all necessary ancillary services as bandgap circuit, PLL (Phase-locked loop) and threshold DACs (Digital to Analog Converters). This paper will describe the ASIC architecture and the experimental results of the first HKROC prototype received in January 2022

HKROC: an integrated front-end ASIC to readout photomultiplier tubes for the Hyper-Kamiokande experiment

International audienceThe HKROC ASIC was originally designed to readout the photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) for the Hyper-Kamiokande (HK) experiment. HKROC is a very innovative ASIC capable of readout a large number of channels satisfying stringent requirements in terms of noise, speed and dynamic range. Each HKROC channel features a low-noise preamplifier and shapers, a 10-bit successive approximation Analog-to-Digital Converter (SAR-ADC) (designed by AGH Krakow) for the charge measurement (up to 2500 pC) and a Time-to-Digital Converter (TDC) (designed by CEA IRFU group) for the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) measurement with 25 ps binning. HKROC is auto-triggered and includes all necessary ancillary services as bandgap circuit, PLL (Phase-locked loop) and threshold DACs (Digital to Analog Converters). This paper will describe the ASIC architecture and the experimental results of the first HKROC prototype received in January 2022

HKROC: an integrated front-end ASIC to readout photomultiplier tubes for the Hyper-Kamiokande experiment

International audienceThe HKROC ASIC was originally designed to readout the photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) for the Hyper-Kamiokande (HK) experiment. HKROC is a very innovative ASIC capable of readout a large number of channels satisfying stringent requirements in terms of noise, speed and dynamic range. Each HKROC channel features a low-noise preamplifier and shapers, a 10-bit successive approximation Analog-to-Digital Converter (SAR-ADC) (designed by AGH Krakow) for the charge measurement (up to 2500 pC) and a Time-to-Digital Converter (TDC) (designed by CEA IRFU group) for the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) measurement with 25 ps binning. HKROC is auto-triggered and includes all necessary ancillary services as bandgap circuit, PLL (Phase-locked loop) and threshold DACs (Digital to Analog Converters). This paper will describe the ASIC architecture and the experimental results of the first HKROC prototype received in January 2022

HKROC: an integrated front-end ASIC to readout photomultiplier tubes for the Hyper-Kamiokande experiment

The HKROC ASIC was originally designed to readout the photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) for the Hyper-Kamiokande (HK) experiment. HKROC is a very innovative ASIC capable of readout a large number of channels satisfying stringent requirements in terms of noise, speed and dynamic range. Each HKROC channel features a low-noise preamplifier and shapers, a 10-bit successive approximation Analog-to-Digital Converter (SAR-ADC) (designed by AGH Krakow) for the charge measurement (up to 2500 pC) and a Time-to-Digital Converter (TDC) (designed by CEA IRFU group) for the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) measurement with 25 ps binning. HKROC is auto-triggered and includes all necessary ancillary services as bandgap circuit, PLL (Phase-locked loop) and threshold DACs (Digital to Analog Converters). This paper will describe the ASIC architecture and the experimental results of the first HKROC prototype received in January 2022