122 research outputs found
A Production Characterization of the Eagle Ford Shale, Texas - A Bayesian Analysis Approach
We begin this research by asking "can we better estimate reserves in unconventional reservoirs using Bayes' theorem?" To attempt to answer this question, we obtained data for 68 wells in the Greater Core of the Eagle Ford Shale, Texas. As process, we eliminated the wells that did not have enough data, that did not show a production decline and/or wells that had too much data noise (this left us with 8 wells for analysis). We next performed decline curve analysis (DCA) using the Modified Hyperbolic (MH) and Power-Law Exponential (PLE) models (the two most common DCA models), consisting in user-guided analysis software. Then, the Bayesian paradigm was implemented to calibrate the same two models on the same set of wells.
The primary focus of the research was the implementation of the Bayesian paradigm on the 8 well data set. We first performed a "best fit" parameter estimation using least squares optimization, which provided an optimized set of parameters for the two decline curve models. This was followed by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration of the Bayesian posterior function for each model, which provided a full probabilistic description of its parameters. This allowed for the simulation of a number of likely realizations of the decline curves, from which first order statistics were computed to provide a confidence metric on the calibration of each model as applied to the production data of each well.
Results showed variation on the calibration of the MH and PLE models. The forward models (MH and PLE) either over- or underestimate the reserves compared with the Bayesian calibrations, proving that the Bayesian paradigm was able to capture a more accurate trend of the data and thus able to determine more accurate estimates of reserves. In industry, the same decline curve models are used for unconventional wells as for conventional wells, even though we know that the same models may not apply. Based on the proposed results, we believe that Bayesian inference yields more accurate estimates of reserves for unconventional reservoirs than deterministic DCA methods. Moreover, it provides a measure of confidence on the prediction of production as as function of varying data and varying decline curve models
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Effectiveness of multi-stage cooling processes in improving the CH4-hydrate saturation uniformity in sandy laboratory samples
Laboratory-created samples of methane hydrate (MH)-bearing media are a necessity because of the rarity and difficulty of obtaining naturally-occurring samples. The hypothesis that the inevitable heterogeneity in the phase saturations of the laboratory samples may lead to unreliable and non-repeatable results provided the impetus for this study, which aimed to determine the conditions under which maximum uniformity can be achieved. To that end, we designed four experiments involving different multi-stage cooling regimes (in terms of their duration and number of stages) to induce MH formation under excess-water conditions. In the absence of direct visualization capabilities, we analysed the experimental results by means of numerical simulation, which provided high-resolution predictions of the spatial distributions of the phase saturations in the cores and enabled the estimation of the parameters controlling the kinetic MH-formation behaviour through history-matching. Analysis of the numerical results indicated that, under the conditions of the experiments and with the design of the reactor, significant heterogeneities in phase saturation distributions were observed in all cases, leading to the conclusion that it is not possible to obtain cores with uniform phase saturation. Additionally, contrary to expectations, heterogeneities increased with the number of cooling stages and the duration of cooling, and this was attributed to imperfect insulation of the upper part of the reactor. A set of simulations involving perfect insulation of the reactor top confirmed the validity of this assumption: (a) predicting the formation of high-uniformity MH-bearing cores that became more homogeneous as the number of cooling stages and the length of the cooling period increased; and (b) providing important information for the improvement of the standard design of the experimental apparatus for the laboratory creation of MH-bearing cores using the excess water method
T2SOLV: An enhanced package of solvers for the TOUGH2 family of reservoir simulation codes
T2SOLV is an enhanced package of matrix solvers for the TOUGH2 family of codes. T2SOLV includes all the Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient (PCG) solvers used in T2CG1, the current solver package, as well as LUBAND, a new direct solver, and DLUSTB, a PCG solver based on the BiCGSTAB method. Additionally, T2SOLV includes the D4 grid numbering scheme and two sets of preprocessors. Results from test problems indicate that LUBAND is faster, more reliable and requires less storage than MA28, the current direct solver. BiCGSTAB solver is shown to be superior to the other PCG methods in T2SOLV. Finally, the preprocessors improve the performance of the PCG solvers and allow the solution of previously intractable problems. TOUGH2 is capable of modeling most of the processes arising in the natural state of geothermal reservoirs and in response to production and injection operations. It can handle the appearance and disappearance of liquid and vapor phases, boiling and condensation, multiphase flow due to pressure, gravity, and capillary forces, vapor adsorption with vapor pressure lowering, heat conduction, and heat exchange between rocks and fluids. It is applicable to flow systems of arbitrary geometry from one to three dimensions, and has special provisions for flow in fractured-porous media
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Laboratory testing of closure cap repair techniques
Landfill design requires a low permeability closure cap as well as a low permeability liner. The Savannah River Site, in South Carolina, has approximately 85 acres of mixed waste landfills covered with compacted kaolin clay. Maintaining low permeability of the clay cap requires both that the permeability of the compacted clay itself remain low and that the integrity of the barrier be maintained. Barrier breaches typically result from penetration by roots or animals, and especially cracks caused by uneven settling or desiccation. In this study, clay layers, 0.81 m in diameter and 7.6 cm thick, were compacted in 7 lysimeters to simulate closure caps. The hydraulic conductivity of each layer was measured, and the compacted clay layers (CCL`s) were cracked by drying. Then various repair techniques were applied and the effectiveness of each repair was assessed by remeasuring the hydraulic conductivity. Finally the repaired CCL was again dried and measured to determine how the repair responded to the conditions that caused the original failure. For a full report of this investigation see Persoff et al. Six repair techniques have been tested, four of which involve the use of injectable barrier liquids colloidal silica (CS) and polysiloxane (PSX) described below: (I) covering the crack with a bentonite geosynthetic clay liner (GCL), (ii) recompaction of new kaolinite at STD+3 moisture content joined to existing kaolinite that had dried and shrunk, (iii) direct injection of colloidal silica to a crack, (iv) injection of colloidal silica (CS) to wells in an overlying sand layer, (v) direct injection of polysiloxane to a crack, and (vi), injection of polysiloxane (PSX) to wells in an overlying soil layer
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Magnetic detection of ferrofluid injection zones
Ferrofluids are stable colloidal suspensions of magnetic particles that can be stabilized in various carrier liquids. In this study the authors investigate the potential of ferrofluids to trace the movement and position of liquids injected in the subsurface using geophysical methods. An ability to track and monitor the movement and position of injected liquids is essential in assessing the effectiveness of the delivery system and the success of the process. Ferrofluids can also provide a significant detection and verification tool in containment technologies, where they can be injected with the barrier liquids to provide a strong signature allowing determination of the barrier geometry, extent, continuity and integrity. Finally, ferrofluids may have unique properties as tracers for detecting preferential flow features (such as fractures) in the subsurface, and thus allow the design of more effective remediation systems. In this report the authors review the results of the investigation of the potential of ferrofluids to trace the movement and position of liquids injected in the subsurface using geophysical methods. They demonstrate the feasibility of using conventional magnetometry for detecting subsurface zones of injected ferrofluids used to trace liquids injected for remediation or barrier formation. The geometrical shapes considered were a sphere, a thin disk, a rectangular horizontal slab, and a cylinder. Simple calculations based on the principles of magnetometry are made to determine the detection depths of FTs. Experiments involving spherical, cylindrical and horizontal slabs show a very good agreement between predictions and measurements
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TOUGH2 software qualification
TOUGH2 is a numerical simulation code for multi-dimensional coupled fluid and heat flow of multiphase, multicomponent fluid mixtures in porous and fractured media. It belongs to the MULKOM ({open_quotes}MULti-KOMponent{close_quotes}) family of codes and is a more general version of the TOUGH simulator. The MULKOM family of codes was originally developed with a focus on geothermal reservoir simulation. They are suited to modeling systems which contain different fluid mixtures, with applications to flow problems arising in the context of high-level nuclear waste isolation, oil and gas recovery and storage, and groundwater resource protection. TOUGH2 is essentially a subset of MULKOM, consisting of a selection of the better tested and documented MULKOM program modules. The purpose of this package of reports is to provide all software baseline documents necessary for the software qualification of TOUGH2
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Effect of Dilution and Contaminants on Strength and Hydraulic Conductivity of Sand Grouted With Colloidal Silica Gel
Colloidal silica (CS) is a low-viscosity liquid that can be made to gel by addition of brine. This property allows it to be injected into, or mixed with, soil, so that after gelling the colloidal silica blocks the pore space in the soil and forms a barrier to the flow of contaminated groundwater or non-aqueous liquids (NAPLs). Gelled-in-place CS was first studied for the petroleum industry and later for protecting groundwater quality. Noll investigated the use of colloidal silica diluted so that its solids content was reduced from 30% (a typical nominal value for material as delivered) to values as low as 5%. The more dilute colloids could still be made to gel, although more slowly, and the resulting gel was weaker. Because the proposed application of colloidal silica grout involves emplacing it in the subsurface by permeation, jet grouting, or soil mixing where its role as a barrier will be to resist flow of contaminants, the effects of these contaminants on the properties of the grouted soil is also of interest. This work comprised four tasks. In Task 1, samples of grouted sand were prepared with a range of CS dilutions, for measurement of hydraulic conductivity and unconfined-compressive strength. In Task 2, these properties were measured on samples of grouted sand that incorporated 5% volumetric saturation of NAPLs. In Task 3, samples, prepared without any contaminants, were immersed in contaminant liquids and tested after 30 and 90 days. Task 4 was added because NAPL contamination in the samples of Tasks 2 and 3 impelled modifications in the test methods, and comparison of the results of Task 2 and Task 1 suggested that these modifications had introduced errors. In Task 4, samples were tested both ways, to confirm that in Tasks 2 and 3 strength was underestimated and hydraulic conductivity was overestimated. Despite the existence of these known systematic errors, the inclusion of control samples in Tasks 2 and 3 permits conclusions to be drawn from these data
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Sorption of cesium and strontium on Savannah River soils impregnated with colloidal silica
Colloidal silica (CS) is being considered as an injectable low viscosity fluid for creation of impermeable barrier containment of low level radioactive waste at the Savannah River Site (SRS), South Carolina. The sorption behavior of cesium and strontium on Savannah River Site Soils impregnated with Colloidal Silica was studied using a batch experimental method. The samples were prepared by addition of CS and an aqueous solution of CaCl{sub 2} to the soil materials. Sorption studies were conducted after the gelation of the CS samples had occurred. The variation of the sorption ratio, R, as a function of cesium or strontium concentration was examined. The Freundlich isotherm was used to fit the data and very good results were obtained
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Basin scale assessment of gas hydrate dissociation in response to climate change
Paleooceanographic evidence has been used to postulate that methane from oceanic hydrates may have had a significant role in regulating climate. However, the behavior of contemporary oceanic methane hydrate deposits subjected to rapid temperature changes, like those now occurring in the arctic and those predicted under future climate change scenarios, has only recently been investigated. Field investigations have discovered substantial methane gas plumes exiting the seafloor along the Arctic Ocean margin, and the plumes appear at depths corresponding to the upper limit of a receding gas hydrate stability zone. It has been suggested that these plumes may be the first visible signs of the dissociation of shallow hydrate deposits due to ongoing climate change in the arctic. We simulate the release of methane from oceanic deposits, including the effects of fully-coupled heat transfer, fluid flow, hydrate dissociation, and other thermodynamic processes, for systems representative of segments of the Arctic Ocean margins. The modeling encompasses a range of shallow hydrate deposits from the landward limit of the hydrate stability zone down to water depths beyond the expected range of century-scale temperature changes. We impose temperature changes corresponding to predicted rates of climate change-related ocean warming and examine the possibility of hydrate dissociation and the release of methane. The assessment is performed at local-, regional-, and basin-scales. The simulation results are consistent with the hypothesis that dissociating shallow hydrates alone can result in significant methane fluxes at the seafloor. However, the methane release is likely to be confined to a narrow region of high dissociation susceptibility, defined by depth and temperature, and that any release will be continuous and controlled, rather than explosive. This modeling also establishes the first realistic bounds for methane release along the arctic continental shelf for potential hydrate dissociation scenarios, and ongoing work may help confirm whether climate change is already impacting the stability of the vast oceanic hydrate reservoir
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