Associations Between the Serum Metabolome and All-Cause Mortality Among African Americans in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Early and accurate identification of people at high risk of premature death may assist in the targeting of preventive therapies in order to improve overall health. To identify novel biomarkers for all-cause mortality, we performed untargeted metabolomics in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. We included 1,887 eligible ARIC African Americans, and 671 deaths occurred during a median follow-up period of 22.5 years (1987–2011). Chromatography and mass spectroscopy identified and quantitated 204 serum metabolites, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the longitudinal associations with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Nine metabolites, including cotinine, mannose, glycocholate, pregnendiol disulfate, α-hydroxyisovalerate, N-acetylalanine, andro-steroid monosulfate 2, uridine, and γ-glutamyl-leucine, showed independent associations with all-cause mortality, with an average risk change of 18% per standard-deviation increase in metabolite level (P < 1.23 × 10−4). A metabolite risk score, created on the basis of the weighted levels of the identified metabolites, improved the predictive ability of all-cause mortality over traditional risk factors (bias-corrected Harrell's C statistic 0.752 vs. 0.730). Mannose and glycocholate were associated with cardiovascular mortality (P < 1.23 × 10−4), but predictive ability was not improved beyond the traditional risk factors. This metabolomic analysis revealed potential novel biomarkers for all-cause mortality beyond the traditional risk factors

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Incident ESRD: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Carotid intima-media thickness has been reported to predict kidney function decline. However, whether carotid intima-media thickness is associated with a hard kidney end point, ESRD, has not been investigated

Lifetime Risk of Lower-Extremity Peripheral Artery Disease Defined by Ankle-Brachial Index in the United States.

Background There are no available lifetime risk estimates of lower-extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD). Methods and Results Using data from 6 US community-based cohorts and the vital statistics, we estimated the prevalence and incidence of PAD, defined as an ankle-brachial index&nbsp;&lt;&nbsp;0.90, at each year of age from birth to 80&nbsp;years for white, black, and Hispanic men and women. Then, we used Markov Monte Carlo simulations in a simulated cohort of 100&nbsp;000 individuals to estimate lifetime risk of PAD. On the basis of odds ratios of PAD for traditional atherosclerotic risk factors (eg, diabetes mellitus and smoking), we developed a calculator providing residual lifetime risk of PAD. In an 80-year horizon, lifetime risks of PAD were 30.0% in black men and 27.6% in black women, but ≈19% in white men and women and ≈22% in Hispanic men and women. From another perspective, 9% of blacks were estimated to develop PAD by 60&nbsp;years of age, while the same proportion was seen at ≈70&nbsp;years for whites and Hispanics. The residual lifetime risk within the same race/ethnicity varied by 3.5- to 5-fold according to risk factors (eg, residual lifetime risk in 45-year-old black men was 19.9% when current smoking, diabetes mellitus, and history of cardiovascular disease were absent versus 70.4% when all were present). Conclusions In the United States, ≈30% of blacks are estimated to develop PAD during their lifetime, whereas the corresponding estimate is ≈20% for whites and Hispanics. The residual lifetime risk within the same race/ethnicity substantially varies according to traditional risk factors

Treating Early-Stage CKD With New Medication Therapies:Results of a CKD Patient Survey Informing the 2020 NKF-FDA Scientific Workshop on Clinical Trial Considerations for Developing Treatments for Early Stages of Common, Chronic Kidney Diseases

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: With a growing number of medications and therapies available to treat chronic kidney disease (CKD), risk-versus-benefit discussions are increasingly critical. Balancing risks and benefits requires assessing patients’ understanding of these, as well as incorporating patient preferences and tolerance for side effects into shared decision making. STUDY DESIGN: A 26-question online survey was sent to people in the National Kidney Foundation patient email list and posted on associated social media pages to assess the respondents’ willingness and comfort with taking preventative medications during earlier-stage CKD to inform a December 2020 scientific workshop co-sponsored by the National Kidney Foundation and the US Food and Drug Administration on clinical trial considerations in developing treatments for individuals with early stages of CKD. SETTING & POPULATION: Online survey of CKD patients, including broad demographic data and responses to risk-benefit scenarios, with surveys emailed to 20,249 people not identified as currently receiving kidney replacement therapy. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Survey results are presented as descriptive data. RESULTS: Of 1,029 respondents, 45 self-identified as at risk for CKD, 566 had CKD, 267 had received kidney transplants, 51 were receiving dialysis, and 100 replied other or did not answer. Respondents reported being willing to assume some risk with the goal of preventing the progression of CKD, with a greater willingness to assume risk and treatment burdens the closer they came to late-stage disease. Clinician recommendations regarding kidney therapies and clinician willingness to work with patients to address any side effects were important in respondents’ willingness to initiate and persevere with a new medication. LIMITATIONS: Approximately 10% response rate with limited data on respondents. CONCLUSIONS: Risk-versus-benefit discussions appear key to patients and their care partners making well-informed decisions about taking a new medication that may or may not help the progression of their kidney disease. Future tools and strategies are needed to facilitate informed discussions of treatment in early-stage kidney disease

Iterative Outlier Removal: A Method for Identifying Outliers in Laboratory Recalibration Studies

Extreme values that arise for any reason, including through non-laboratory measurement procedure-related processes (inadequate mixing, evaporation, mislabeling), lead to outliers and inflate errors in recalibration studies. We present an approach termed iterative outlier removal (IOR) for identifying such outliers

Incorporating kidney disease measures into cardiovascular risk prediction: Development and validation in 9 million adults from 72 datasets

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) measures (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and albuminuria) are frequently assessed in clinical practice and improve the prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet most major clinical guidelines do not have a standardized approach for incorporating these measures into CVD risk prediction. CKD Patch is a validated method to calibrate and improve the predicted risk from established equations according to CKD measures.Methods: Utilizing data from 4,143,535 adults from 35 datasets, we developed several CKD Patches incorporating eGFR and albuminuria, to enhance prediction of risk of atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) and CVD mortality by Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The risk enhancement by CKD Patch was determined by the deviation between individual CKD measures and the values expected from their traditional CVD risk factors and the hazard ratios for eGFR and albuminuria. We then validated this approach among 4,932,824 adults from 37 independent datasets, comparing the original PCE and SCORE equations (recalibrated in each dataset) to those with addition of CKD Patch.Findings: We confirmed the prediction improvement with the CKD Patch for CVD mortality beyond SCORE and ASCVD beyond PCE in validation datasets (Δc-statistic 0.027 [95% CI 0.018-0.036] and 0.010 [0.007-0.013] and categorical net reclassification improvement 0.080 [0.032-0.127] and 0.056 [0.044-0.067], respectively). The median (IQI) of the ratio of predicted risk for CVD mortality with CKD Patch vs. the original prediction with SCORE was 2.64 (1.89-3.40) in very high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 30-44 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria ≥30 mg/g), 1.86 (1.48-2.44) in high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 45-59 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria 30-299 mg/g), and 1.37 (1.14-1.69) in moderate risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 60-89 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria 30-299 mg/g), indicating considerable risk underestimation in CKD with SCORE. The corresponding estimates for ASCVD with PCE were 1.55 (1.37-1.81), 1.24 (1.10-1.54), and 1.21 (0.98-1.46).Interpretation: The CKD Patch can be used to quantitatively enhance ASCVD and CVD mortality risk prediction equations recommended in major US and European guidelines according to CKD measures, when available.Funding: US National Kidney Foundation and the NIDDK

Identification of Incident CKD Stage 3 in Research Studies

In epidemiologic research, incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) is commonly determined by laboratory tests performed at planned study visits. Given the morbidity and mortality associated with CKD, persons with incident disease may be less likely to attend scheduled visits, affecting observed associations. The objective of this study was to quantify loss-to-follow-up by CKD status, and to determine whether supplementation with diagnostic code data improves capture of incident CKD

Recalibration of Blood Analytes over 25 Years in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study: Impact of Recalibration on Chronic Kidney Disease Prevalence and Incidence

BACKGROUND: Equivalence of laboratory tests over time is important for longitudinal studies. Even a small systematic difference (bias) can result in substantial misclassification. METHODS: We selected 200 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study participants attending all 5 study visits over 25 years. Eight analytes were remeasured in 2011-2013 from stored blood samples from multiple visits: creatinine, uric acid, glucose, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Original values were recalibrated to remeasured values with Deming regression. Differences >10% were considered to reflect substantial bias, and correction equations were applied to affected analytes in the total study population. We examined trends in chronic kidney disease (CKD) pre- and postrecalibration. RESULTS: Repeat measures were highly correlated with original values [Pearson r > 0.85 after removing outliers (median 4.5% of paired measurements)], but 2 of 8 analytes (creatinine and uric acid) had differences >10%. Original values of creatinine and uric acid were recalibrated to current values with correction equations. CKD prevalence differed substantially after recalibration of creatinine (visits 1, 2, 4, and 5 prerecalibration: 21.7%, 36.1%, 3.5%, and 29.4%, respectively; postrecalibration: 1.3%, 2.2%, 6.4%, and 29.4%). For HDL cholesterol, the current direct enzymatic method differed substantially from magnesium dextran precipitation used during visits 1-4. CONCLUSIONS: Analytes remeasured in samples stored for approximately 25 years were highly correlated with original values, but 2 of the 8 analytes showed substantial bias at multiple visits. Laboratory recalibration improved reproducibility of test results across visits and resulted in substantial differences in CKD prevalence. We demonstrate the importance of consistent recalibration of laboratory assays in a cohort study

Kidney function and sudden cardiac death in the community: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Individuals with chronic kidney disease, particularly those requiring dialysis, are at high risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, comprehensive data for the full-spectrum of kidney function and SCD risk in the community are sparse. Furthermore, newly developed equations for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and novel filtration markers might add further insight to the role of kidney function in SCD

Kidney function and sudden cardiac death in the community: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Individuals with chronic kidney disease, particularly those requiring dialysis, are at high risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, comprehensive data for the full-spectrum of kidney function and SCD risk in the community are sparse. Furthermore, newly developed equations for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and novel filtration markers might add further insight to the role of kidney function in SCD