Clinical predictors of long-term survival in newly diagnosed transplant eligible multiple myeloma - an IMWG Research Project

Purpose: multiple myeloma is considered an incurable hematologic cancer but a subset of patients can achieve long-term remissions and survival. The present study examines the clinical features of long-term survival as it correlates to depth of disease response. Patients & Methods: this was a multi-institutional, international, retrospective analysis of high-dose melphalan-autologous stem cell transplant (HDM-ASCT) eligible MM patients included in clinical trials. Clinical variable and survival data were collected from 7291 MM patients from Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, Korea, Spain, the Nordic Myeloma Study Group and the United States. Kaplan–Meier curves were used to assess progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Relative survival (RS) and statistical cure fractions (CF) were computed for all patients with available data. Results: achieving CR at 1 year was associated with superior PFS (median PFS 3.3 years vs. 2.6 years, p < 0.0001) as well as OS (median OS 8.5 years vs. 6.3 years, p < 0.0001). Clinical variables at diagnosis associated with 5-year survival and 10-year survival were compared with those associated with 2-year death. In multivariate analysis, age over 65 years (OR 1.87, p = 0.002), IgA Isotype (OR 1.53, p = 0.004), low albumin < 3.5 g/dL (OR = 1.36, p = 0.023), elevated beta 2 microglobulin ≥ 3.5 mg/dL (OR 1.86, p < 0.001), serum creatinine levels ≥ 2 mg/dL (OR 1.77, p = 0.005), hemoglobin levels < 10 g/dL (OR 1.55, p = 0.003), and platelet count < 150k/μL (OR 2.26, p < 0.001) appeared to be negatively associated with 10-year survival. The relative survival for the cohort was ~0.9, and the statistical cure fraction was 14.3%. Conclusions: these data identify CR as an important predictor of long-term survival for HDM-ASCT eligible MM patients. They also identify clinical variables reflective of higher disease burden as poor prognostic markers for long-term survival

International Myeloma Working Group risk stratification model for smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM)

Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is an asymptomatic precursor state of multiple myeloma (MM). Recently, MM was redefined to include biomarkers predicting a high risk of progression from SMM, thus necessitating a redefinition of SMM and its risk stratification. We assembled a large cohort of SMM patients meeting the revised IMWG criteria to develop a new risk stratification system. We included 1996 patients, and using stepwise selection and multivariable analysis, we identified three independent factors predicting progression risk at 2 years: serum M-protein >2 g/dL (HR: 2.1), involved to uninvolved free light-chain ratio >20 (HR: 2.7), and marrow plasma cell infiltration >20% (HR: 2.4). This translates into 3 categories with increasing 2-year progression risk: 6% for low risk (38%; no risk factors, HR: 1); 18% for intermediate risk (33%; 1 factor; HR: 3.0), and 44% for high risk (29%; 2–3 factors). Addition of cytogenetic abnormalities (t(4;14), t(14;16), +1q, and/or del13q) allowed separation into 4 groups (low risk with 0, low intermediate risk with 1, intermediate risk with 2, and high risk with ≥3 risk factors) with 6, 23, 46, and 63% risk of progression in 2 years, respectively. The 2/20/20 risk stratification model can be easily implemented to identify high-risk SMM for clinical research and routine practice and will be widely applicable

A high-risk, Double-Hit, group of newly diagnosed myeloma identified by genomic analysis

Patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) with high-risk disease are in need of new treatment strategies to improve the outcomes. Multiple clinical, cytogenetic, or gene expression features have been used to identify high-risk patients, each of which has significant weaknesses. Inclusion of molecular features into risk stratification could resolve the current challenges. In a genome-wide analysis of the largest set of molecular and clinical data established to date from NDMM, as part of the Myeloma Genome Project, we have defined DNA drivers of aggressive clinical behavior. Whole-genome and exome data from 1273 NDMM patients identified genetic factors that contribute significantly to progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) (cumulative R2 = 18.4% and 25.2%, respectively). Integrating DNA drivers and clinical data into a Cox model using 784 patients with ISS, age, PFS, OS, and genomic data, the model has a cumlative R2 of 34.3% for PFS and 46.5% for OS. A high-risk subgroup was defined by recursive partitioning using either a) bi-allelic TP53 inactivation or b) amplification (≥4 copies) of CKS1B (1q21) on the background of International Staging System III, comprising 6.1% of the population (median PFS = 15.4 months; OS = 20.7 months) that was validated in an independent dataset. Double-Hit patients have a dire prognosis despite modern therapies and should be considered for novel therapeutic approaches

Multi-trait genome-wide association study identifies new loci associated with optic disc parameters

A new avenue of mining published genome-wide association studies includes the joint analysis of related traits. The power of this approach depends on the genetic correlation of traits, which reflects the number of pleiotropic loci, i.e. genetic loci influencing multiple traits. Here, we applied new meta-analyses of optic nerve head (ONH) related traits implicated in primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG); intraocular pressure and central corneal thickness using Haplotype reference consortium imputations. We performed a multi-trait analysis of ONH parameters cup area, disc area and vertical cup-disc ratio. We uncover new variants; rs11158547 in PPP1R36-PLEKHG3 and rs1028727 near SERPINE3 at genome-wide significance that replicate in independent Asian cohorts imputed to 1000 Genomes. At this point, validation of these variants in POAG cohorts is hampered by the high degree of heterogeneity. Our results show that multi-trait analysis is a valid approach to identify novel pleiotropic variants for ONH

Clinical predictors of long-term survival in newly diagnosed transplant eligible multiple myeloma - an IMWG Research Project

Purpose: multiple myeloma is considered an incurable hematologic cancer but a subset of patients can achieve long-term remissions and survival. The present study examines the clinical features of long-term survival as it correlates to depth of disease response. Patients & Methods: this was a multi-institutional, international, retrospective analysis of high-dose melphalan-autologous stem cell transplant (HDM-ASCT) eligible MM patients included in clinical trials. Clinical variable and survival data were collected from 7291 MM patients from Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, Korea, Spain, the Nordic Myeloma Study Group and the United States. Kaplan–Meier curves were used to assess progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Relative survival (RS) and statistical cure fractions (CF) were computed for all patients with available data. Results: achieving CR at 1 year was associated with superior PFS (median PFS 3.3 years vs. 2.6 years, p < 0.0001) as well as OS (median OS 8.5 years vs. 6.3 years, p < 0.0001). Clinical variables at diagnosis associated with 5-year survival and 10-year survival were compared with those associated with 2-year death. In multivariate analysis, age over 65 years (OR 1.87, p = 0.002), IgA Isotype (OR 1.53, p = 0.004), low albumin < 3.5 g/dL (OR = 1.36, p = 0.023), elevated beta 2 microglobulin ≥ 3.5 mg/dL (OR 1.86, p < 0.001), serum creatinine levels ≥ 2 mg/dL (OR 1.77, p = 0.005), hemoglobin levels < 10 g/dL (OR 1.55, p = 0.003), and platelet count < 150k/μL (OR 2.26, p < 0.001) appeared to be negatively associated with 10-year survival. The relative survival for the cohort was ~0.9, and the statistical cure fraction was 14.3%. Conclusions: these data identify CR as an important predictor of long-term survival for HDM-ASCT eligible MM patients. They also identify clinical variables reflective of higher disease burden as poor prognostic markers for long-term survival

International Myeloma Working Group risk stratification model for smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM)

Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is an asymptomatic precursor state of multiple myeloma (MM). Recently, MM was redefined to include biomarkers predicting a high risk of progression from SMM, thus necessitating a redefinition of SMM and its risk stratification. We assembled a large cohort of SMM patients meeting the revised IMWG criteria to develop a new risk stratification system. We included 1996 patients, and using stepwise selection and multivariable analysis, we identified three independent factors predicting progression risk at 2 years: serum M-protein >2 g/dL (HR: 2.1), involved to uninvolved free light-chain ratio >20 (HR: 2.7), and marrow plasma cell infiltration >20% (HR: 2.4). This translates into 3 categories with increasing 2-year progression risk: 6% for low risk (38%; no risk factors, HR: 1); 18% for intermediate risk (33%; 1 factor; HR: 3.0), and 44% for high risk (29%; 2–3 factors). Addition of cytogenetic abnormalities (t(4;14), t(14;16), +1q, and/or del13q) allowed separation into 4 groups (low risk with 0, low intermediate risk with 1, intermediate risk with 2, and high risk with ≥3 risk factors) with 6, 23, 46, and 63% risk of progression in 2 years, respectively. The 2/20/20 risk stratification model can be easily implemented to identify high-risk SMM for clinical research and routine practice and will be widely applicable

A high-risk, Double-Hit, group of newly diagnosed myeloma identified by genomic analysis

Patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) with high-risk disease are in need of new treatment strategies to improve the outcomes. Multiple clinical, cytogenetic, or gene expression features have been used to identify high-risk patients, each of which has significant weaknesses. Inclusion of molecular features into risk stratification could resolve the current challenges. In a genome-wide analysis of the largest set of molecular and clinical data established to date from NDMM, as part of the Myeloma Genome Project, we have defined DNA drivers of aggressive clinical behavior. Whole-genome and exome data from 1273 NDMM patients identified genetic factors that contribute significantly to progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) (cumulative R2 = 18.4% and 25.2%, respectively). Integrating DNA drivers and clinical data into a Cox model using 784 patients with ISS, age, PFS, OS, and genomic data, the model has a cumlative R2 of 34.3% for PFS and 46.5% for OS. A high-risk subgroup was defined by recursive partitioning using either a) bi-allelic TP53 inactivation or b) amplification (≥4 copies) of CKS1B (1q21) on the background of International Staging System III, comprising 6.1% of the population (median PFS = 15.4 months; OS = 20.7 months) that was validated in an independent dataset. Double-Hit patients have a dire prognosis despite modern therapies and should be considered for novel therapeutic approaches