Implementing systematic reviews of prognosis studies in Cochrane.

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Search Filters for Finding Prognostic and Diagnostic Prediction Studies in Medline to Enhance Systematic Reviews

Background: The interest in prognostic reviews is increasing, but to properly review existing evidence an accurate search filer for finding prediction research is needed. The aim of this paper was to validate and update two previously introduced search filters for finding prediction research in Medline: the Ingui filter and the Haynes Broad filter. Methodology/Principal Findings: Based on a hand search of 6 general journals in 2008 we constructed two sets of papers. Set 1 consisted of prediction research papers (n = 71), and set 2 consisted of the remaining papers (n = 1133). Both search filters were validated in two ways, using diagnostic accuracy measures as performance measures. First, we compared studies in set 1 (reference) with studies retrieved by the search strategies as applied in Medline. Second, we compared studies from 4 published systematic reviews (reference) with studies retrieved by the search filter as applied in Medline. Next -using word frequency methods - we constructed an additional search string for finding prediction research. Both search filters were good in identifying clinical prediction models: sensitivity ranged from 0.94 to 1.0 using our hand search as reference, and 0.78 to 0.89 using the systematic reviews as reference. This latter performance measure even increased to around 0.95 (range 0.90 to 0.97) when either search filter was combined with the additional string that we developed. Retrieval rate of explorative prediction research was poor, both using our hand search or our systematic review as reference, and even combined with our additional search string: sensitivity ranged from 0.44 to 0.85. Conclusions/Significance: Explorative prediction research is difficult to find in Medline, using any of the currently available search filters. Yet, application of either the Ingui filter or the Haynes broad filter results in a very low number missed clinical prediction model studie

A methodological framework to distinguish spectrum effects from spectrum biases and to assess diagnostic and screening test accuracy for patient populations: Application to the Papanicolaou cervical cancer smear test

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A spectrum effect was defined as differences in the sensitivity or specificity of a diagnostic test according to the patient's characteristics or disease features. A spectrum effect can lead to a spectrum bias when subgroup variations in sensitivity or specificity also affect the likelihood ratios and thus post-test probabilities. We propose and illustrate a methodological framework to distinguish spectrum effects from spectrum biases.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were collected for 1781 women having had a cervical smear test and colposcopy followed by biopsy if abnormalities were detected (the reference standard). Logistic models were constructed to evaluate both the sensitivity and specificity, and the likelihood ratios, of the test and to identify factors independently affecting the test's characteristics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For both tests, human papillomavirus test, study setting and age affected sensitivity or specificity of the smear test (spectrum effect), but only human papillomavirus test and study setting modified the likelihood ratios (spectrum bias) for clinical reading, whereas only human papillomavirus test and age modified the likelihood ratios (spectrum bias) for "optimized" interpretation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Fitting sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios simultaneously allows the identification of covariates that independently affect diagnostic or screening test results and distinguishes spectrum effect from spectrum bias. We recommend this approach for the development of new tests, and for reporting test accuracy for different patient populations.</p

Prevalence and Predictors of Vitamin D Insufficiency in Children: A Great Britain Population Based Study

Objectives To evaluate the prevalence and predictors of vitamin D insufficiency (VDI) in children In Great Britain. Design A nationally representative cross-sectional study survey of children (1102) aged 4–18 years (999 white, 570 male) living in private households (January 1997–1998). Interventions provided information about dietary habits, physical activity, socio-demographics, and blood sample. Outcome measures were vitamin D insufficiency (<50 nmol/L). Results Vitamin D levels (mean = 62.1 nmol/L, 95%CI 60.4–63.7) were insufficient in 35%, and decreased with age in both sexes (p<0.001). Young People living between 53–59 degrees latitude had lower levels (compared with 50–53 degrees, p = 0.045). Dietary intake and gender had no effect on vitamin D status. A logistic regression model showed increased risk of VDI in the following: adolescents (14–18 years old), odds ratio (OR) = 3.6 (95%CI 1.8–7.2) compared with younger children (4–8 years); non white children (OR = 37 [95%CI 15–90]); blood levels taken December-May (OR = 6.5 [95%CI 4.3–10.1]); on income support (OR = 2.2 [95%CI 1.3–3.9]); not taking vitamin D supplementation (OR = 3.7 [95%CI 1.4–9.8]); being overweight (OR 1.6 [95%CI 1.0–2.5]); <1/2 hour outdoor exercise/day/week (OR = 1.5 [95%CI 1.0–2.3]); watched >2.5 hours of TV/day/week (OR = 1.6[95%CI 1.0–2.4]). Conclusion We confirm a previously under-recognised risk of VDI in adolescents. The marked higher risk for VDI in non-white children suggests they should be targeted in any preventative strategies. The association of higher risk of VDI among children who exercised less outdoors, watched more TV and were overweight highlights potentially modifiable risk factors. Clearer guidelines and an increased awareness especially in adolescents are needed, as there are no recommendations for vitamin D supplementation in older children

A randomised clinical trial on cardiotocography plus fetal blood sampling versus cardiotocography plus ST-analysis of the fetal electrocardiogram (STAN®) for intrapartum monitoring

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cardiotocography (CTG) is worldwide the method for fetal surveillance during labour. However, CTG alone shows many false positive test results and without fetal blood sampling (FBS), it results in an increase in operative deliveries without improvement of fetal outcome. FBS requires additional expertise, is invasive and has often to be repeated during labour. Two clinical trials have shown that a combination of CTG and ST-analysis of the fetal electrocardiogram (ECG) reduces the rates of metabolic acidosis and instrumental delivery. However, in both trials FBS was still performed in the ST-analysis arm, and it is therefore still unknown if the observed results were indeed due to the ST-analysis or to the use of FBS in combination with ST-analysis.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>We aim to evaluate the effectiveness of non-invasive monitoring (CTG + ST-analysis) as compared to normal care (CTG + FBS), in a multicentre randomised clinical trial setting. Secondary aims are: 1) to judge whether ST-analysis of fetal electrocardiogram can significantly decrease frequency of performance of FBS or even replace it; 2) perform a cost analysis to establish the economic impact of the two treatment options.</p> <p>Women in labour with a gestational age ≥ 36 weeks and an indication for CTG-monitoring can be included in the trial.</p> <p>Eligible women will be randomised for fetal surveillance with CTG and, if necessary, FBS or CTG combined with ST-analysis of the fetal ECG.</p> <p>The primary outcome of the study is the incidence of serious metabolic acidosis (defined as pH < 7.05 and Bd_ecf> 12 mmol/L in the umbilical cord artery). Secondary outcome measures are: instrumental delivery, neonatal outcome (Apgar score, admission to a neonatal ward), incidence of performance of FBS in both arms and cost-effectiveness of both monitoring strategies across hospitals.</p> <p>The analysis will follow the intention to treat principle. The incidence of metabolic acidosis will be compared across both groups. Assuming a reduction of metabolic acidosis from 3.5% to 2.1 %, using a two-sided test with an alpha of 0.05 and a power of 0.80, in favour of CTG plus ST-analysis, about 5100 women have to be randomised. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of CTG and ST-analysis as compared to CTG and FBS will be studied.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study will provide data about the use of intrapartum ST-analysis with a strict protocol for performance of FBS to limit its incidence. We aim to clarify to what extent intrapartum ST-analysis can be used without the performance of FBS and in which cases FBS is still needed.</p> <p>Trial Registration Number</p> <p>ISRCTN95732366</p

Child abuse inventory at emergency rooms: CHAIN-ER rationale and design

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Child abuse and neglect is an important international health problem with unacceptable levels of morbidity and mortality. Although maltreatment as a cause of injury is estimated to be only 1% or less of the injured children attending the emergency room, the consequences of both missed child abuse cases and wrong suspicions are substantial. Therefore, the accuracy of ongoing detection at emergency rooms by health care professionals is highly important. Internationally, several diagnostic instruments or strategies for child abuse detection are used at emergency rooms, but their diagnostic value is still unknown. The aim of the study 'Child Abuse Inventory at Emergency Rooms' (CHAIN-ER) is to assess if active structured inquiry by emergency room staff can accurately detect physical maltreatment in children presenting at emergency rooms with physical injury.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>CHAIN-ER is a multi-centre, cross-sectional study with 6 months diagnostic follow-up. Five thousand children aged 0-7 presenting with injury at an emergency room will be included. The index test - the SPUTOVAMO-R questionnaire- is to be tested for its diagnostic value against the decision of an expert panel. All SPUTOVAMO-R positives and a 15% random sample of the SPUTOVAMO-R negatives will undergo the same systematic diagnostic work up, which consists of an adequate history being taken by a pediatrician, inquiry with other health care providers by structured questionnaires in order to obtain child abuse predictors, and by additional follow-up information. Eventually, an expert panel (reference test) determines the <it>true </it>presence or absence of child abuse.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>CHAIN-ER will determine both positive and negative predictive value of a child abuse detection instrument used in the emergency room. We mention a benefit of the use of an expert panel and of the use of complete data. Conducting a diagnostic accuracy study on a child abuse detection instrument is also accompanied by scientific hurdles, such as the lack of an accepted reference standard and potential (non-) response. Notwithstanding these scientific challenges, CHAIN-ER will provide accurate data on the predictive value of SPUTOVAMO-R.</p