Adjusting for COPD severity in database research: developing and validating an algorithm

Purpose: When comparing chronic obstructive lung disease (COPD) interventions in database research, it is important to adjust for severity. Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) guidelines grade severity according to lung function. Most databases lack data on lung function. Previous database research has approximated COPD severity using demographics and healthcare utilization. This study aims to derive an algorithm for COPD severity using baseline data from a large respiratory trial (UPLIFT).Methods: Partial proportional odds logit models were developed for probabilities of being in GOLD stages II, III and I V. Concordance between predicted and observed stage was assessed using kappa-statistics. Models were estimated in a random selection of 2/3 of patients and validated in the remainder. The analysis was repeated in a subsample with a balanced distributio

Evidence synthesis and linkage for modelling the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tests : preliminary good practice recommendations

Objectives: To develop preliminary good practice recommendations for synthesising and linking evidence of treatment effectiveness when modelling the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tests. Methods: We conducted a targeted review of guidance from key Health Technology Assessment (HTA) bodies to summarise current recommendations on synthesis and linkage of treatment effectiveness evidence within economic evaluations of diagnostic tests. We then focused on a specific case study, the cost-effectiveness of troponin for the diagnosis of myocardial infarction, and reviewed the approach taken to synthesise and link treatment effectiveness evidence in different modelling studies. Results: The Australian and UK HTA bodies provided advice for synthesising and linking treatment effectiveness in diagnostic models, acknowledging that linking test results to treatment options and their outcomes is common. Across all reviewed models for the case study, uniform test-directed treatment decision making was assumed, i.e., all those who tested positive were treated. Treatment outcome data from a variety of sources, including expert opinion, were utilised for linked clinical outcomes. Preliminary good practice recommendations for data identification, integration and description are proposed. Conclusion: Modelling the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tests poses unique challenges in linking evidence on test accuracy to treatment effectiveness data to understand how a test impacts patient outcomes and costs. Upfront consideration of how a test and its results will likely be incorporated into patient diagnostic pathways is key to exploring the optimal design of such models. We propose some preliminary good practice recommendations to improve the quality of cost-effectiveness evaluations of diagnostics tests going forward

Treatment patterns in children with autism in the United States

Children with autism receive different types of non-drug treatments. We aimed to describe caregiver-reported pattern of care and its variability by geography and healthcare coverage in a US-wide sample of children aged 3-17 years. We recruited caregivers from the Simons Foundation Powering Autism Research for Knowledge (SPARK) cohort. Two online questionnaires (non-drug treatment, Autism Impact Measure) were completed in September/October 2017. Primary outcome measures were caregiver-reported types and intensities of treatments (behavioral, developmental/relationship, speech and language (SLT), occupational, psychological, other; parent/caregiver training) in the previous 12 months. Main explanatory variables were geography and type of healthcare coverage. We investigated associations between the type/intensity of treatments and geography (metropolitan/nonmetropolitan) or coverage (Medicaid vs privately insured by employer) using regression analysis. Caregivers (n = 5,122) were mainly mothers (92.1%) with mean (SD) age of 39.0 (7.3) years. Mean child age was 9.1 (3.9) years; mostly males (80.0%). Almost all children received at least one intervention (96.0%). Eighty percent received SLT or occupational therapy, while 52.0% received both. Behavioral therapy and SLT were significantly more frequent and more intense in metropolitan than in nonmetropolitan areas. No consistently significant associations were seen between healthcare coverage and frequency or intensity of interventions. At least one barrier such as waiting list and no coverage was reported by 44.8%. In conclusion, in children sampled from SPARK, we observed differences between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, while we did not find significant differences between those privately insured versus Medicaid. Autism Res 2019, 12: 517-526 (c) 2019 The Authors. Autism Research published by International Society for Autism Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.Lay SummaryThe American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry recommends the use of multiple treatment modalities in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). We wanted to understand what types of treatment children (aged 3-17 years) with ASD receive in the United States, how and where the treatments take place and for how long. We invited caregivers from Simons Foundation Powering Autism Research for Knowledge (SPARK , ) to complete the study questions online. Participants reported on utilization of conventional, non-drug treatments for ASD, including behavioral interventions, developmental/relationship interventions, speech and language therapy (SLT), occupational therapy, psychological therapy, and parent/caregiver training. People that completed the study (n = 5,122) were primarily mothers of the child with ASD (92%); most of the children were boys (80%). The ASD care for the child was mostly coordinating by the mother. Almost all children received at least some type of non-drug therapies (96%), most often SLT and/or occupational therapy, mainly provided in school. Behavioral therapy was most often received in public school in rural areas, while at home in urban areas. We saw less use of behavioral therapy and SLT in rural areas, but overall comparable use between children covered by Medicaid and those covered by private insurance. Almost half the caregivers reported at least one barrier to treatment, such as waiting list and no coverage. More than half said that their child benefited much or very much from the therapies received. While overall non-drug treatment rates for children with ASD were high in the United States in our study, differences existed depending on where the family lives; not only regarding the type of therapy, but also where it takes place.</p

Probabilistic Markov Model to Assess the Cost-Effectiveness of Bronchodilator Therapy in COPD Patients in Different Countries

AbstractObjectivesThe development of a probabilistic Markov model with a time horizon of 1 year to compare the cost-effectiveness of three bronchodilators: 1) the new long-acting anticholinergic tiotropium; 2) the short-acting anticholinergic ipratropium; and 3) the long-acting beta 2-agonist salmeterol, for the treatment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in different countries. In this article we compare the Netherlands and Canada.MethodsThe Markov model was structured along disease severity states and exacerbations. Transition probabilities between disease states and exacerbation probabilities were derived from patient-level data from six randomized controlled trials assessing the efficacy and safety of tiotropium. Resource utilization during exacerbations and maintenance treatment for the Netherlands were derived from two clinical trials, whereas for Canada these data were obtained from a countrywide observational study that used similar inclusion criteria as the trials. Second-order Monte Carlo simulations were undertaken in which values were randomly drawn from distributions of these parameters. Outcomes of the model are yearly treatment costs, exacerbations, and quality-adjusted life months.ResultsThe mean difference in the number of exacerbations was 0.17 (95% uncertainty interval: −0.02–0.37) in favor of tiotropium when compared with salmeterol and the difference between salmeterol and ipratropium was 0.12 (−0.17–0.44) in favor of salmeterol. The number of quality-adjusted life months did not substantially differ between treatment groups and varied from 8.42 (SE 0.41) in the tiotropium group to 8.17 (0.46) in the salmeterol group and 8.11 (0.50) in the ipratropium group. In the Netherlands, costs in the tiotropium group were 42 € (−484–353) lower than in the salmeterol group, whereas costs in the salmeterol group were 128€ (−795–457) lower than in the ipratropium group. In Canada, costs were consistently lower than in the Netherlands and nearly the same in all treatment groups. Differences between the two countries were primarily a result of a higher length of hospital stay in case of an exacerbation in the Netherlands. The cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier of exacerbations showed that tiotropium was associated with the maximum expected net benefit for all values of the ceiling ratio above 0€ (the Netherlands) and 10€ (Canada) in the base case analysis.ConclusionsThis probabilistic model-based economic evaluation demonstrates how clinical trial data can be combined and integrated with country-specific information about resource utilization and unit cost to assess the cost-effectiveness of bronchodilators in COPD patients. Quality-adjusted life months did not substantially differ between treatment groups. In terms of exacerbations, tiotropium was associated with maximum expected net benefit for plausible values of the ceiling ratio. In sensitivity analyses, this outcome was most sensitive to changes in exacerbation rates

Cost-effectiveness of warfarin : trial versus 'real-world' stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation

Background and Purpose: Previous cost-effectiveness analyses analyzed warfarin for stroke prevention in randomized trial settings. Given the complexities of warfarin treatment, cost-effectiveness should be examined within a real-world setting. Methods: Our model followed patients with atrial fibrillation at moderate to high risk of stroke through primary and recurrent ischemic stroke, hemorrhages-intracranial and extracranial, and the resulting disability. Four scenarios were examined: (1) all patients start on warfarin with perfect control, that is, international normalized ratio (INR) values always within range; (2) all patients start on warfarin with trial-like control, where INR can fall outside the recommended range; (3) all patients start on warfarin with real-world INR control; and (4) real-world prescription (and control) of warfarin, aspirin, or neither for warfarin-eligible patients. Reported warfarin discontinuation rates were used. Main outcomes were total number of events, quality adjusted life years, and costs in a US setting. Results: The total number of primary and recurrent ischemic strokes in a 1000-patient cohort (age 70 years, lifetime analysis) was 626, 832, 984, and 1,171 in scenarios 1 to 4, respectively. The corresponding mean quality adjusted life years per patient were 7.21, 6.92, 6.75, and 6.67 for scenarios 1 to 4, respectively. Costs per patient were $68,039,$77,764, $84,518, and$87,248 in scenarios 1 to 4, respectively. If "perfect" adherence to warfarin was assumed, except for discontinuations for clinical reasons, strokes would decrease to 503, 737, 909, and 1,120 in scenarios 1 to 4, respectively. Conclusions: Clinical and cost outcomes are strongly dependent on the quality of anticoagulation and rates of warfarin discontinuation. Clinicians should work to improve both. Policy makers should use real-world INR control and warfarin discontinuation rates when assessing cost-effectiveness

Is the Comparator in Your Diagnostic Cost-Effectiveness Model “Standard of Care”? Recommendations from Literature Reviews and Expert Interviews on How to Identify and Operationalize It

Objectives: This research aimed to develop best-practice recommendations for identifying the “standard of care” (SoC) and integrate it when it is the comparator in diagnostic economic models (SoC comparator).Methods: A multi-methods approach comprising 2 pragmatic literature reviews and 9 expert interviews was used. Experts rated their agreement with draft recommendations based on the authors’ analysis of the reviews. These were refined iteratively to produce final recommendations.Results: Fourteen best-practice recommendations are provided. Care pathway mapping (using quantitative, qualitative, or mixed-methods approaches) should be used for identifying the SoC comparator. Guidelines analysis can be integrated with expert opinion to identify pathway variability and discrepancies from clinical practice. For integrating the SoC comparator into the model, recommendations around structure, input sourcing, data aggregation and reporting, input uncertainty, and model variability are presented. For example, modelers should consider that the reference standard is not synonymous with the SoC, and the SoC may not be the only comparator. The comparator limitations should be discussed with clinical experts, but elicitation of its diagnostic accuracy is not recommended. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis is recommended when evaluating the overall input uncertainty, and deterministic sensitivity analysis is useful when there is high model uncertainty or SoC variability. Consensus could not be reached for some topics (eg, the role of real-world data, model averaging, and alternative model structures), but the reported discussions provide points for consideration.Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first guidance to support modelers when identifying and operationalizing the SoC comparator in diagnostic cost-effectiveness models