Understanding declines in the population size of migratory birds

The common sandpiper is an Afro-Palearctic migrant that is declining across Europe. Studies have suggested that environmental conditions during winter are likely to be important determinants of their population trends, but these trends differ between breeding regions suggesting that wintering conditions are not the only important factor. We investigated the factors affecting common sandpipers during each of their lifecycle stages to obtain a complete overview of the factors affecting their status. During the breeding season, we found that disturbance appears to have an important effect on the probability of a nest hatching successfully. Further, we found that heavy rainfall in the week after hatching reduced the probability of chicks fledging, presumably through the influence of poor weather on thermoregulation and foraging. Common sandpipers are known to be associated with areas of high water quality. In winter, common sandpipers were more likely to be found in areas of low salinity and high pH, and had higher foraging success in these areas, suggesting that water chemistry might be an important influence on their habitat selection. Further, we showed that common sandpipers are territorial in winter, which has previously only been suggested based on anecdotal evidence. Studies of many other species have shown that the conditions during migration are likely to be a key driver of population trends. We investigated the migration of individuals across multiple populations using geolocators, tagging common sandpipers in England and Senegal, and combining these data with published data from individuals tagged in Scotland. We revealed that there is a large amount of overlap in the non-breeding distributions of individuals from these populations. Also, we showed that birds appear to use wind to facilitate their migration in autumn, but actively fly against prevailing conditions in spring. Finally, we investigated changes in the timing of wading bird migration at a flyway scale using the eBird citizen science dataset. We showed that, contrary to the findings of many studies, the timing of migration seems to be becoming later at a flyway scale and suggest range shifts as the primary driver. Understanding the influence of conditions at each lifecycle stage is paramount for determining the drivers of declining migratory bird populations. Further, investigating the mechanisms driving population trends in individual species will help us to understand the patterns we see at larger spatial scales

The effects of geolocators on return rates, condition, and breeding success in Common Sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos

Capsule : Fitting geolocators to Common Sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos did not affect their return rates, return dates, body condition or reproductive success, but did cause leg injuries in some individuals. Aims : To investigate the effect of fitting geolocators to Common Sandpipers on their return rates and timing, the condition in which they return and their subsequent breeding success. Methods : We fitted geolocators to colour-ringed Common Sandpipers and monitored them throughout the breeding seasons prior to migration and following return from their wintering grounds. We then compared return rate, return date, change in body condition, hatching success, and fledging success between birds with and without the tags. We also fitted a number of smaller geolocators to wintering individuals in Africa and compared their return rates with a control group. Results : We found no significant differences between birds with and without geolocators in any of the variables measured. However, several individuals fitted with the larger tags were found to have incurred leg injuries. Conclusion : Our study highlights the need for complete transparency when reporting the effects of geolocators and shows the importance of continuous monitoring of individuals when carrying out tracking studies

Climatic conditions during migration affect population size and arrival dates in an Afro-Palaearctic migrant:Climate and demography in sand martins

Long-distance migrants are particularly susceptible to climate change because of their multi-stage life-cycle, but understanding how climatic conditions at each of these stages influence population dynamics remains a key challenge. Here, we use long-term data from a UK population of Sand Martins Riparia riparia, a declining Afro-Palaearctic migrant, to investigate how weather on the wintering grounds and at passage sites impacts population size and arrival date. General linear models revealed that population size increased and arrival date advanced over the study period, and both were predicted by regional climatic variables in the previous winter and on passage. These results add to a growing body of evidence showing that population change in migrant birds is influenced by climatic conditions at all stages of the life cycle

Pressure effects on the resonant attenuation of soft porous beads-based materials for underwater acoustics

Dedicated coating materials for anechoism and furtivity in underwater acoustics must exhibit a strong reliability regarding their mechanical resistance to hydrostatic pressure. Soft porous materials, especially, a distribution of soft porous beads within a polyurethane matrix, have been previously proposed as an acoustic insulator device. The purpose of the present letter is to investigate the attenuation efficiency of soft porous silicone beads-based materials while being exposed to uniaxial loads mimicking hydrostatic pressures encountered in underwater acoustics. The acoustic performance of this locally resonant material is then compared to the classical coating technology using micro-balloons. The use of an adapted surfactant (a silicone alkyl polyether compound) in the fabrication process of the soft porous silicone-based beads, obtained through an emulsion templating process, leads to particles exhibiting an open porosity. The (resonant) attenuation of the soft porous beads-based material remains greater than the micro-balloons-based material until several bars. Above this critical resilience value, the mechanical stress irreversibly damages the soft porous beads

Willis metamaterial on a structured beam

Bianisotropy is common in electromagnetics whenever a cross-coupling between electric and magnetic responses exists. However, the analogous concept for elastic waves in solids, termed as Willis coupling, is more challenging to observe. It requires coupling between stress and velocity or momentum and strain fields, which is difficult to induce in non-negligible levels, even when using metamaterial structures. Here, we report the experimental realization of a Willis metamaterial for flexural waves. Based on a cantilever bending resonance, we demonstrate asymmetric reflection amplitudes and phases due to Willis coupling. We also show that, by introducing loss in the metamaterial, the asymmetric amplitudes can be controlled and can be used to approach an exceptional point of the non-Hermitian system, at which unidirectional zero reflection occurs. The present work extends conventional propagation theory in plates and beams to include Willis coupling, and provides new avenues to tailor flexural waves using artificial structures.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figure

Adaptive sampling by citizen scientists improves species distribution model performance: a simulation study

1. Volunteer recorders generate large amounts of biodiversity data through citizen science which is used in conservation planning and policy decision-making. Unstructured sampling, where the volunteer can record what they want, where they want, leads to spatial unevenness in these data. While there are many statistical techniques to account for the resulting biases, it may be possible to improve datasets by directing a subset of recorders to sample in the most informative locations, known as adaptive sampling. We investigated the potential for adaptive sampling to improve the performance of species distribution models built on citizen science data using simulated ecological communities. 2. We simulated ecological assemblages across Great Britain based on current butterfly data and modelled the distributions of each species. We then simulated the sampling of new data based on five adaptive sampling methods (one empirical method based simply on gap-filling, and four model-based methods using various measures from the model outputs) and one non-adaptive method (a method in which recording continued in the current pattern), and re-ran the species distribution models. In these, we also varied the rate of recording effort that was distributed according to adaptive sampling. The model predictions using the original and adaptively sampled data were compared to true species distributions to evaluate the performance of each method. 3. We found that all adaptive sampling approaches improved model performance, with greatest improvement for model-based approaches compared to the empirical sampling method (i.e. simple gap-filling). All four model-based adaptive sampling approaches provided similar benefits for model outputs. Improvements in model performance were greatest when the amount of adaptive sampling changed from no uptake to 1% uptake, indicating that only a small amount of change in recorder behaviour is needed to improve model performance. 4. Directing volunteer recorders to places where records are most needed, based on information from model outputs, can improve species distribution models built on citizen science data, even with minimal uptake of suggested locations. Our results therefore suggest that adaptive sampling by recorders could be beneficial for real-world citizen science datasets

Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme - ERAMMP Report-60: ERAMMP Integrated Modelling Platform (IMP) Land Use Scenarios

Six scenarios consisting of changes in farm-gate prices (T1 to T6) have been applied to the ERAMMP Integrated Modelling Platform (IMP) to simulate impacts on land use change, biodiversity and ecosystem services (carbon, water quality and air quality). The scenarios were based on discussions held between stakeholders in the Evidence and Scenario subgroup (Roundtable Wales and Brexit1) and Welsh Government (WG) policy officials. These discussions took place in late 2020 before the arrangements for the UK leaving the EU were agreed, therefore are based on broad assumptions around the detail of the trade agreement with the EU as well as other third countries including Australia, New Zeland and USA. It is important to note that the outputs of these discussions which were used as inputs into the ERAMMP IMP may therefore not accurately reflect the outcomes achieved within the finalised trade agreements. The T1 scenario assumes no EU trade deal and trade liberalisation, with no tariffs applied to imported products and T2 an EU trade deal with no change to the trade arrangements with third countries. These two scenarios used the changes to farm-gate prices modelled by FAPRI2. The assumptions used in the T3 to T6 scenarios were based on expert opinion from the stakeholder group, and include impacts on farm-gate prices which potentially could have resulted from different combinations of trade deals with New Zealand, Australia and USA. Scenarios which include “no EU deal” options (T1 and T4) are no longer relevant. In no way whatsoever do T1, T3, T4, T5 and T6 represent a WG position; our understanding of the nature and impact of new and emerging trade deals has evolved significantly and the WG Trade Policy Team lead in this area. The objective of this work was to gain an early understanding of how changes in farm-gate prices potentially resulting from trading relationships may influence land use and subsequently effect entry into the Sustainable Farming Scheme. We note that many other factors are also likely to influence Welsh farmgate prices, such as (but not limited to), currency exchange rates, energy prices and extreme weather events in other parts of the world. This report provides an overview of the land use implications of all these scenarios, but focuses on the T2 scenario, which represents an EU Trade Deal. This T2 scenario is being used as the counterfactual scenario against which the costs and benefits of the land use implications of the proposed Sustainable Farming Scheme will be assessed in the Regulatory Impact Assessment for the proposed Agricultural Bill. This includes the estimated environmental outcomes of the EU Trade Deal scenario and, where the ERAMMP IMP has attached monetary valuations to these, the value of these outcomes to society. In the Cost Benefit Analysis, these monetary values will inform the overall estimated Net Present Value (NPV) of this business-as-usual counterfactual. The IMP involves many assumptions and these need to be borne in mind when interpreting and using its outcomes. By necessity, all models are a simplification of the real situation, but can still provide very useful insights if applied for a specific purpose and with caution. The collaborative and iterative consortium-based approach to co-designing the IMP has meant that Welsh Government and IMP teams have clear, open channels of communication for asking questions. This ensures that the modelling represents government aspirations as well as possible and the limits of the approach are well understood. IMP outputs for the T2 scenario show that some simulated full-time farms (>1 FTE labour) come under economic pressure (7%) and are simulated to be unable to produce a sufficient Farm Business Income to be economically viable. For these farm types, no options to transition to a more alternative profitable farm type are available and they are assumed to leave full-time agriculture. A greater number of farms transition to dairying resulting in a 75% increase in the number of dairy farms. This is associated with large increases in the number of dairy cattle (73%) and reductions in sheep (-34%). A general intensification of grassland systems is simulated resulting from the farm type transitions, with a 66% increase in temporary grasslands and a 21% decrease in permanent grasslands. Overall, these changes in agriculture and land use are simulated to lead to mixed, but predominantly negative, effects on biodiversity, increases in GHG emissions and deterioration in air and water quality. The T2 scenario predicts the least change in agriculture out of the six scenarios. T1 simulates the greatest impacts on agriculture due to significant farm-gate price reductions across dairy, beef and sheep systems, with a large number of full-time farms leaving agriculture. This leads to large increases in woodland area and generally positive effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. T3 and T4 also simulate large impacts on agriculture. These are associated with significant farm transitions to dairy (due to increases in milk prices and significant decreases in beef and lamb prices) resulting in larger increases in GHG emissions and greater declines in air and water quality, compared to the T2 scenario. The T5 and T6 scenarios fall between these extremes, with T6 projecting the second greatest impacts on agriculture (after T1) in terms of farms under pressure. These simulated changes in agriculture are associated with net benefits for air and water quality, but net costs for GHG emissions; although these costs are lower than for scenarios T3-T5

An adaptable integrated modelling platform to support rapidly evolving agricultural and environmental policy

The utility of integrated models for informing policy has been criticised due to limited stakeholder engagement, model opaqueness, inadequate transparency in assumptions, lack of model flexibility and lack of communication of uncertainty that, together, lead to a lack of trust in model outputs. We address these criticisms by presenting the ERAMMP Integrated Modelling Platform (IMP), developed to support the design of new “business-critical” policies focused on agriculture, land-use and natural resource management. We demonstrate how the long-term (>5 years), iterative, two-way and continuously evolving participatory process led to the co-creation of the IMP with government, building trust and understanding in a complex integrated model. This is supported by a customisable modelling framework that is sufficiently flexible to adapt to changing policy needs in near real-time. We discuss how these attributes have facilitated cultural change within the Welsh Government where the IMP is being actively used to explore, test and iterate policy ideas prior to final policy design and implementation

The role of storms in shaping the journeys of migrating whimbrels across the Atlantic

Part of the 'Wading through Literature' series where invited authors discuss themes in wader/shorebird biology, ecology or conservation that arise from publications other than Wader Study