Assessment of Yellow Fever Epidemic Risk: An Original Multi-criteria Modeling Approach

This article describes the use of an original modeling approach to assess the risk of yellow fever (YF) epidemics. YF is a viral hemorrhagic fever responsible in past centuries for devastating outbreaks. Since the 1930s, a vaccine has been available that protects the individual for at least 10 years, if not for life. However, immunization of populations in African countries was gradually discontinued after the 1960s. With the decrease in immunity against YF in African populations the disease reemerged in the 1980s. In 2005, WHO, UNICEF, and the GAVI Alliance decided to support preventive vaccination of at-risk populations in West African endemic countries in order to tackle the reemergence of YF and reduce the risk of urban YF outbreaks. Financial resources were made available to scale up a global YF vaccine stockpile and to support countries with limited resources in the management of preventive vaccination campaigns. This article describes the process we used to determine the most at-risk populations using a mathematical model to prioritize targeted immunization campaigns. We believe that this approach could be useful for other diseases for which decision making process is difficult because of limited data availability, complex risk variables, and a need for rapid decisions and implementation

Combinatorial Computational Approaches to Identify Tetracycline Derivatives as Flavivirus Inhibitors

Limited structural information of drug targets, cellular toxicity possessed by lead compounds, and large amounts of potential leads are the major issues facing the design-oriented approach of discovering new leads. In an attempt to tackle these issues, we have developed a process of virtual screening based on the observation that conformational rearrangements of the dengue virus envelope protein are essential for the mediation of viral entry into host cells via membrane fusion. Screening was based solely on the structural information of the Dengue virus envelope protein and was focused on a target site that is presumably important for the conformational rearrangements necessary for viral entry. To circumvent the issue of lead compound toxicity, we performed screening based on molecular docking using structural databases of medical compounds. To enhance the identification of hits, we further categorized and selected candidates according to their novel structural characteristics. Finally, the selected candidates were subjected to a biological validation assay to assess inhibition of Dengue virus propagation in mammalian host cells using a plaque formation assay. Among the 10 compounds examined, rolitetracycline and doxycycline significantly inhibited plaque formation, demonstrating their inhibitory effect on dengue virus propagation. Both compounds were tetracycline derivatives with IC(50)s estimated to be 67.1 µM and 55.6 µM, respectively. Their docked conformations displayed common hydrophobic interactions with critical residues that affected membrane fusion during viral entry. These interactions will therefore position the tetracyclic ring moieties of both inhibitors to bind firmly to the target and, subsequently, disrupt conformational rearrangement and block viral entry. This process can be applied to other drug targets in which conformational rearrangement is critical to function

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Lassa Seropositivity in Inhabitants of the Forest Region of Guinea: A Cross-Sectional Study

Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in West Africa, mainly transmitted to humans by multimammate rats. Several modes of virus transmission are suspected: aerosolisation of the virus, contact with infected rodent excreta, and consumption of rodent meat. Person-to-person transmission also occurs via contact with body fluids of infected persons (blood, urine) and is responsible for numerous outbreaks, mostly in healthcare facilities. Our objective was to precisely describe risk factors for Lassa fever in both rural and urban communities of forest Guinea. For each participant, a standardized questionnaire was completed and a blood sample tested for Lassa virus antibodies. A total of 1424 subjects were interviewed and 977 blood samples tested. The prevalence of Lassa virus antibodies was estimated at 12.9% and 10.0% in rural and urban areas, respectively. The two risk factors were: to have, in the past twelve months, undergone an injection, or lived with someone displaying a haemorrhage. Contrary to our expectation, no factors related to contact with rodents were identified. It is still probable that transmission occurs via indirect contact between rodents and humans in households, but our results highlight the importance of person-to-person transmission via close contact and nosocomial exposure

Comparison of Argentinean Saint Louis Encephalitis Virus Non-Epidemic and Epidemic Strain Infections in an Avian Model

St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV, Flavivirus, Flaviviridae) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in South America, with human SLEV encephalitis cases reported in Argentina and Brazil. Genotype III strains of SLEV were isolated from Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in Cordoba, Argentina in 2005, during the largest SLEV outbreak ever reported in South America. The present study tested the hypothesis that the recent, epidemic SLEV strain exhibits greater virulence in birds as compared with a non-epidemic genotype III strain isolated from mosquitoes in Santa Fe Province 27 years earlier. The observed differences in infection parameters between adult House sparrows (Passer domesticus) that were needle-inoculated with either the epidemic or historic SLEV strain were not statistically significant. However, only the House sparrows that were infected with the epidemic strain achieved infectious-level viremia titers sufficient to infect Cx. spp. mosquitoes vectors. Furthermore, the vertebrate reservoir competence index values indicated an approximately 3-fold increase in amplification potential of House sparrows infected with the epidemic strain when pre-existing flavivirus-reactive antibodies were present, suggesting the possibility that antibody-dependent enhancement may increase the risk of avian-amplified transmission of SLEV in South America

Frequency of histopathological changes in Howler monkeys ( Alouatta sp.) naturally infected with yellow fever virus in Brazil

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Due to the importance that Howler monkeys have on the yellow fever (YF) epidemiological sylvatic cycle in Brazil, more accurate morphological diagnostic criteria needs to be established, especially considering the differences that may exist between the genera of Brazilian non-human primates (NHPs) involved in yellow fever virus (YFV) epizootics. METHODS: Records of YF epizootics in NHPs in Brazil between 2007 and 2009 were obtained from the Brazilian Ministry of Health database to select YF positive (n=98) Howler monkeys (Alouatta sp.) for this study. The changes described in the histopathological reports were categorized by organ and their frequencies calculated. RESULTS: The most frequent lesions observed in the animals with YF were hepatocyte apoptosis (Councilman body formation), midzonal hepatocyte necrosis, steatosis, liver hemorrhage, inflammatory mononuclear cell infiltration of the liver, renal acute tubular necrosis and interstitial nephritis. Midzonal hepatocyte necrosis, steatosis and hemorrhage presented positive correlations with apoptosis of hepatocytes, suggesting strong YFV pathogenic effect association; they were also the main histopathological changes in the Alouatta sp. A pronounced negative correlation between apoptosis of hepatocytes and hepatic mononuclear cell infiltration pointed to significant histopathological differences between YFV infection in Howler monkeys and humans. CONCLUSIONS: The results warn that NHPs may exhibit different response patterns following YFV infection and require a more careful diagnosis. Presumptive diagnosis based on primate histopathological lesions may contribute to public health service control