Are there dynamic externalities from direct foreign investment? Evidence for Morocco

Many developing countris now actively solicit foreign investment, offering income tax holidays, import duty exemptions, and subsidies to foreign firms. One reason for subsidizing these firms is the positive externalities as foreign technology is transferred from foreign to domestic firms. This paper employs a unique firm-level dataset to test for such dynamic externalities in the Moroccan manufacturing sector. We find no evidence of positive externalities, although the dispersion of productivity is smaller in sectors with more foreign firms. Using detailed information on quotas and tariffs, we also reject the hypothesis that the lack of such dynamic externalities occurs because foreign investors are attracted to protected domestic sectors.Morocco; foreign investment; technology transfer; trade reform

Can Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation Boost Exports and Growth in Developing Countries? Yes, But Not for Long

A policy of managed real undervaluation may have been an important factor behind the success of East Asia’s export-led growth model. But current discussions over the value of China’s currency demonstrate the controversy this kind of policy can generate. Although a managed real undervaluation can enhance domestic competitiveness, it is difficult to sustain—both economically and politically—in the post-crisis environment. We show that a real undervaluation works only for low-income countries, and only in the medium term.exchangte rates, undervaluation, exports, growth, developing countries, China, currency, East Asia, competitiveness, renminbi

Export-Led Growth v2.0

The U.S. recession could hurt the South, particularly in oil and apparel exports, and Latin America and the Caribbean. But South-South trade is partly picking up the slack. Middle-income countries are driving export diversification of low-income countries. Developing countries may be moving toward a new version of export-led growth.recession, South-South, oil, apparel, exports, Latin America, trade, export diversification, developing countries, low-income

Decomposing the great trade collapse : products, prices, and quantities in the 2008-2009 crisis

The authors identifies a new set of stylized facts on the 2008-2009 trade collapse that they hope can be used to shed light on the importance of demand and supply-side factors in explaining the fall in trade. In particular, they decompose the fall in international trade into product entry and exit, price changes, and quantity changes for imports by Brazil, the European Union, Indonesia, and the United States. When the authors aggregate across all products, most of the countries analyzed experienced a decline in new products, a rise in product exit, and falls in quantity for product lines that continued to be traded. The evidence suggests that the intensive rather than extensive margin mattered the most, consistent with studies of other countries and previous recessionary periods. On average, quantities declined and prices fell. However, these average effects mask enormous differences across different products. Price declines were driven primarily by commodities. Within manufacturing, while most quantity changes were negative, in most cases price changes moved in the opposite direction. Consequently, within manufacturing, there is some evidence consistent with the hypothesis that supply side frictions played a role. For the United States, price increases were most significant in sectors which are typically credit constrained.Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Commodities

How trade liberalization affected productivity in Morocco

The economic literature now accepts theoretical arguments that liberal, outward-oriented trade policy is better than restrictive, inward-oriented policies. Traditionally such arguments for the gains from trade have rested on the concept of allocative efficiency. But a new argument for liberal trade has emerged: increased technical efficiency or productivity. The best-known attempts to link trade policy and productivity are based on X-efficiency, economies of scale, capacity use, increased competition, and technological catch-up. The author estimates total factor productivity (TFP) at thefirm level using panel data from the Moroccan industrial census in a production-funtion framework during Morocco's period of trade liberalization (1984-89). The author corrected for several problems that usually bias the estimate of productivity. The use of panel data allowed her to take into account the heterogeneity across firms. These firm-specific effects were tested for randomness. Differences between large firms and small firms were checked. She also corrected for errors in measuring capital stock, so common in data from developing countries, and for simultaneity bias because of the endogeneity of factor inputs or because managers have some knowledge about the noise in the production function. The author then estimated the effect of various trade and market-structure variables on the level of TFP, as well as on the deviation of firm TFP from the efficiency frontier. The results are not very sensitive to the different measures of TFP and show that trade openness has a significant positive effect on firm productivity through: outward orientation from export promotion; import liberalization; and more direct foreign investment. By splitting the sample into protected and unprotected sectors, the author showed lower productivity in protected sectors. The results are clear. Trade liberalization in Morocco improved productivity in manufacturing firms, so they could exploit their comparative advantage and compete better with foreign firms.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Banks&Banking Reform,Industrial Management

Managing Openness and Volatility: The Role of Export Diversification

As developing countries look to embrace an outward-oriented growth strategy, some may be concerned about the possibility that increased openness will be accompanied by increased volatility. However, although a more open economy may face increased volatility in its terms of trade, openness confers diversification benefits. In this note, we argue that export diversification is a key mitigating factor for the total effect of openness on volatility. More specifically, we show that most developing countries fall on the “good” side of a diversification threshold, where they are likely to experience less volatility as they pursue a strategy of greater openness.trade, openness, volatility, export, diversification, developing countries, trade policy, imports, terms of trade, development

Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified

This paper addresses the mechanisms by which trade openness affects growth volatility. Using a diverse set of export diversification indicators, it presents strong evidence pointing to an important role for export diversification in reducing the effect of trade openness on growth volatility. The authors also identify positive thresholds for product diversification at which the effect of openness on volatility changes sign. The effect is shown to be positive only for a minority of countries with highly concentrated export baskets. This result is shown to be robust to both explicit accounting for endogeneity as well as the inclusion of a host of additional controls.Economic Conditions and Volatility,Achieving Shared Growth,Markets and Market Access,Free Trade,Emerging Markets

Decomposing the Great Trade Collapse: Products, Prices, and Quantities in the 2008-2009 Crisis

We identify a new set of stylized facts on the 2008-2009 trade collapse that we hope can be used to shed light on the importance of demand and supply-side factors in explaining the fall in trade. In particular, we decompose the fall in international trade into product entry and exit, price changes, and quantity changes for imports by Brazil, the European Union, Indonesia, and the United States. When we aggregate across all products, most of the countries analyzed experienced a decline in new products, a rise in product exit, and falls in quantity for product lines that continued to be traded. The evidence suggests that the intensive rather than extensive margin mattered the most, consistent with studies of other countries and previous recessionary periods. On average, quantities declined and prices fell. However, these average effects mask enormous differences across different products. Price declines were driven primarily by commodities. Within manufacturing, while most quantity changes were negative, in most cases price changes moved in the opposite direction. Consequently, within manufacturing, there is some evidence consistent with the hypothesis that supply side frictions played a role. For the United States, price increases were most significant in sectors which are typically credit constrained.

Decomposing the Great Trade Collapse: Products, Prices, and Quantities in the 2008-2009 Crisis

We identify a new set of stylized facts on the 2008-2009 trade collapse that we hope can be used to shed light on the importance of demand and supply-side factors in explaining the fall in trade. In particular, we decompose the fall in international trade into product entry and exit, price changes, and quantity changes for imports by Brazil, the European Union, Indonesia, and the United States. When we aggregate across all products, most of the countries analyzed experienced a decline in new products, a rise in product exit, and falls in quantity for product lines that continued to be traded. The evidence suggests that the intensive rather than extensive margin mattered the most, consistent with studies of other countries and previous recessionary periods. On average, quantities declined and prices fell. However, these average effects mask enormous differences across different products. Price declines were driven primarily by commodities. Within manufacturing, while most quantity changes were negative, in most cases price changes moved in the opposite direction. Consequently, within manufacturing, there is some evidence consistent with the hypothesis that supply side frictions played a role. For the United States, price increases were most significant in sectors which are typically credit constrained

Are there dynamic externalities from direct foreign investment? Evidence for Morocco

Many developing countris now actively solicit foreign investment, offering income tax holidays, import duty exemptions, and subsidies to foreign firms. One reason for subsidizing these firms is the positive externalities as foreign technology is transferred from foreign to domestic firms. This paper employs a unique firm-level dataset to test for such dynamic externalities in the Moroccan manufacturing sector. We find no evidence of positive externalities, although the dispersion of productivity is smaller in sectors with more foreign firms. Using detailed information on quotas and tariffs, we also reject the hypothesis that the lack of such dynamic externalities occurs because foreign investors are attracted to protected domestic sectors