Perturbations of Gauss-Bonnet Black Strings in Codimension-2 Braneworlds

We derive the Lichnerowicz equation in the presence of the Gauss-Bonnet term. Using the modified Lichnerowicz equation we study the metric perturbations of Gauss-Bonnet black strings in Codimension-2 Braneworlds.Comment: 26 pages, no figures, clarifying comments and one reference added, to be published in JHE

Changes in individual and contextual socio-economic level influence on reproductive behavior in Spanish women in the MCC-Spain study

Background The association between socioeconomic level and reproductive factors has been widely studied. For example, it is well known that women with lower socioeconomic status (SES) tend to have more children, the age at first-born being earlier. However, less is known about to what extent the great socioeconomic changes occurred in a country (Spain) could modify women reproductive factors. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the influence of individual and contextual socioeconomic levels on reproductive factors in Spanish women, and to explore whether this influence has changed over the last decades. Methods We performed a cross-sectional design using data from 2038 women recruited as population-based controls in an MCC-Spain case-control study. Results Higher parent’s economic level, education level, occupational level and lower urban vulnerability were associated with higher age at first delivery and lower number of pregnancies. These associations were stronger for women born after 1950: women with unfinished primary education had their first delivery 6 years before women with high education if they were born after 1950 (23.4 vs. 29.8 years) but only 3 years before if they were born before 1950 (25.7 vs. 28.0 years). For women born after 1950, the number of pregnancies dropped from 2.1 (unfinished primary school) to 1.7 (high education), whereas it remained almost unchanged in women born before 1950. Conclusions Reproductive behavior was associated with both individual and area-level socio-economic indicators. Such association was stronger for women born after 1950 regarding age at first delivery and number of pregnancies and for women born before 1950 regarding consumption of hormonal contraceptives or postmenopausal therapy

Impact of different age ranges on the benefits and harms of the breast cancer screening programme by the EU-TOPIA tool

BackgroundThe recommendation for the implementation of mammography screening in women aged 45–49 and 70–74 is conditional with moderate certainty of the evidence. The aim of this study is to simulate the long-term outcomes (2020–50) of using different age range scenarios in the breast cancer screening programme of the Valencia Region (Spain), considering different programme participation rates.MethodsThree age range scenarios (S) were simulated with the EU-TOPIA tool, considering a biennial screening interval: S1, 45–69 years old (y); S2, 50–69 y and S3, 45–74 y. Simulations were performed for four participation rates: A = current participation (72.7%), B = +5%, C = +10% and D = +20%. Considered benefits: number (N°) of in situ and invasive breast cancers (BC) (screen vs. clinically detected), N° of BC deaths and % BC mortality reduction. Considered harms: N° of false positives (FP) and % overdiagnosis.ResultsThe results showed that BC mortality decreased in all scenarios, being higher in S3A (32.2%) than S1A (30.6%) and S2A (27.9%). Harms decreased in S2A vs. S1A (N° FP: 236 vs. 423, overdiagnosis: 4.9% vs. 5.0%) but also benefits (BC mortality reduction: 27.9% vs. 30.6%, N° screen-detected invasive BC 15/28 vs. 18/25). In S3A vs. S1A, an increase in benefits was observed (BC mortality reduction: 32.2% vs. 30.6%), N° screen-detected in situ B: 5/2 vs. 4/3), but also in harms (N° FP: 460 vs. 423, overdiagnosis: 5.8% vs. 5.0%). Similar trends were observed with increased participation.ConclusionsAs the age range increases, so does not only the reduction in BC mortality, but also the probability of FP and overdiagnosis

Prioritisation of colonoscopy services in colorectal cancer screening programmes to minimise impact of COVID-19 pandemic on predicted cancer burden: A comparative modelling study

Objectives: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening with a faecal immunochemical test (FIT) has been disrupted in many countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Performing catch-up of missed screens while maintaining regular screening services requires additional colonoscopy capacity that may not be available. This study aimed to compare strategies that clear the screening backlog using limited colonoscopy resources. Methods: A range of strategies were simulated using four country-specific CRC natural-history models: Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) and MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis for CRC (MISCAN-Colon) (both in the Netherlands), Policy1-Bowel (Australia) and OncoSim (Canada). Strategies assumed a 3-month screening disruption with varying recovery period lengths (6, 12, and 24 months) and varying FIT thresholds for diagnostic colonoscopy. Increasing the FIT threshold reduces the number of referrals to diagnostic colonoscopy. Outcomes for each strategy were colonoscopy demand and excess CRC-related deaths due to the disruption. Results: Performing catch-up using the regular FIT threshold in 6, 12 and 24 months could prevent most excess CRC-related deaths, but required 50%, 25% and 12.5% additional colonoscopy demand, respectively. Without exceeding usual colonoscopy demand, up to 60% of excess CRC-related deaths can be prevented by increasing the FIT threshold for 12 or 24 months. Large increases in FIT threshold could lead to additional deaths rather than preventing them. Conclusions: Clearing the screening backlog in 24 months could avert most excess CRC-related deaths due to a 3-month disruption but would require a small increase in colonoscopy demand. Increasing the FIT threshold slightly over 24 months could ease the pressure on colonoscopy resources